Shaq vs. Darko? Easy Call

Henry Abbott of ESPN's flagship TrueHoop blog put out the conch call Wednesday, looking for some poor sap to argue that new Celtic Shaquille O'Neal, age 38, will be more productive than a 25-year-old Darko Milicic this season.

I have argued loudly against Minnesota GM David Kahn's moves this summer, but perhaps no deal has riled me more than the Darko contract (four years, $20 million). At the core, my objection stems from the lies Kahn and coach Kurt Rambis are trying to peddle. I mean, they keep saying the Wolves were better with Darko in town last year. The Wolves went 1-17 in Darko's starts! Despite Minnesota's season-long malaise, 1-17 was actually not an improvement. It was as bad as it sounds.

But it's not as if Shaq was the Big Contributor last season. He didn't play a ton of minutes in Cleveland, partially due to being perhaps the worst big on the team and also due to injury. The naked assumption is that he's losing effectiveness on both ends, no longer a truly dominant finisher in the paint and no longer mobile enough to help much on defense. His free throw shooting remains as bad as ever; the disappearing agility hurts there, too, as Shaq can't get the ball in the hole for pre-foul buckets or and-1 opportunities. His alleged trouble with the pick-and-roll on defense is almost famous. Even if Shaq had a TiVo remote and slowed Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah down by two arrows, he'd have trouble sealing off the play. Add in that he's kind of a diva, he's ultimately distracted by his personal vendettas and television show (Shaq Vs.), and oh yeah, he'll turn 39 before the playoffs.

And yet, despite all that, I think Shaq will be more productive than Darko this season.

In Henry's challenge, he laid out that we're judging productivity in the macro sense: who actually contributed more to his team in total? That gives the younger Darko a built-in advantage; Shaq, of course, is more likely to miss half the season with an injury. There's also the matter of Darko having already been named the team's starter, while Shaq is likely behind Jermaine O'Neal on the depth chart right now, and will be behind Kendrick Perkins when the latter returns around midseason. Darko will likely finish the season with many more minutes than Shaq.

It doesn't matter.

Shaq, even at age 38, so thoroughly outperformed Darko last season that Darko will need that huge minutes advantages just to keep up.

Take a look at each's scoring ability as compared to the league's other 7-footers. Darko is among the worst; Shaq took a lot of shots and converted them at better-than-average efficiency.
Based on last season's scoring numbers for Darko and Shaq, and assuming Darko plays 25 minutes a game, Shaq would only need the equivalent of 15 minutes a game to match Darko's scoring (expected to be about eight points a game). O'Neal played 23 minutes a game last year, on a team deeper at center than Boston will be for the first four months of the season. Darko is a complete minus on offense, while Shaq still has it, wherein "it" is some semblance of ability.

What about rebounding?
The story is similar: despite his age, Shaq is a much better rebounder than Darko. Few 7-footers rebound worse than Darko at either end. In contrast, Shaq's a brilliant defensive rebounder and above-average on the offensive end. Based on recent stats, Darko would be expected to grab 5.4 rebounds a night in 25 minutes. Shaq would need only 19 minutes a night to match that, given last year's numbers.

Individual defense is hard to measure and predict, but I feel wholly confident Darko's impact there is overrated; for all the talk about his plus shot-blocking skill, he's actually not demonstrably better than a slow-moving hulk like Shaq in that realm. (Darko blocked 4 percent of opponent shots last season, Shaq blocked 3.9 percent.) You can see the defensive rebounding disparity above.

For what's it worth, Synergy Sports has Darko giving up 1.04 points per possession to opponents last year in Minnesota, good for (cough) 419th in the league. His isolation (1.21 ppp) and post (0.95) defense was particularly bad. And yes, the fact that he's surrounded by awful defenders in Minnesota (Corey Brewer aside) matters. But guess what? He's going to be surrounded by terrible defenders again this year! No rest for weary Serbs.

Shaq, for all the criticism lobbed his way about defense, gave up 0.85 ppp last season, says Synergy. He outperformed Darko in defending isolation (0.67 ppp, 23rd in the NBA) and the post (0.92 ppp), and despite the wisecracks actually ranked 80th in the NBA defending the big man in the pick-and-roll (1.04 ppp). (Darko did worse in limited opportunities against the pick-and-roll.) And let's not forget that Shaq will be surrounded by defensive aces, from Rajon Rondo limiting guard penetration to Kevin Garnett and J.O. ready to help in the paint. Darko's teammates will make it tougher for the big Serb; Shaq's teammates will keep his job relatively easy.

So essentially, there is little data to suggest that Darko can outplay Shaq in the one area of the game where Milicic has the perceived edge. Which tells me Milicic has no edge, at all. The only chance Darko has in this competition, barring a Brady Anderson-like unprecedented mid-career boom, is for Shaq to be injured or relegated to spot duty by Doc Rivers.

Beyond that, Darko outplaying Shaq? Good luck.


Henry has more on what our "bet" entails at TrueHoop.