Dual Systems Eyed as Tropical Storm Threat This Week

(Aug. 9) -- The next named storm in the Atlantic basin -- Danielle -- may very well form this week, but where it forms would have drastically different impacts.

One possibility is for Tropical Storm Danielle to form well out in the Atlantic, where it would be little threat to land. The other possibility, though, is for Danielle to form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where the storm could affect ongoing cleanup of the BP oil spill and quickly make landfall.

NOAA

The system in the Gulf of Mexico is of greater concern since landfall would be much more likely, but the more distant system is the one more likely to be named within the next two days. National Hurricane Center forecasters are giving that low-pressure system a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by early Wednesday afternoon.

If that system forms, it's unlikely to affect the United States. Historically, systems forming in that region rarely strike the U.S. coast. They are more likely to track north and remain out at sea.

Forecasters give the system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico a 30 percent chance of development during the next two days, but given its proximity to land and its expected northwestward movement, the system will need to be monitored closely by residents living along the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico and those continuing to work on the cleanup of the BP oil spill.

While conditions will become increasingly favorable for development of the gulf system in the next two days, there are limits to how quickly it could develop.

The system is quite disorganized, having been born from a nontropical cold front that moved through the Southeast, and would need some time over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico before it could be officially classified a tropical system. In addition, it would be moving northwestward as it does so, so the system might make landfall before it has time to fully develop.

The system -- if it were to develop -- is more likely to be a tropical storm than a full-fledged hurricane.

This is certainly good news for residents along the northern gulf and for those still working on cleanup related to the oil spill, but tropical storm-force conditions -- including strong winds, very rough seas and heavy downpours -- will be a threat if Danielle develops.