AFC Title Race Could Be Determined by How Teams Handle Holdouts

Because the New York Jets (read Rex Ryan and Woody Johnson) have been ultra-noisy this offseason, the world knows all about Darrelle Revis' holdout.

It knows little, however, about the holdouts of Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill from the San Diego Chargers and Logan Mankins from the New England Patriots, each of whom may have just as much bearing on the AFC title race as Revis.

In fact, while Ryan talks about public negotiating sessions with Revis for the benefit of the "Hard Knocks'' cameras and others, the Chargers' hard-line general manager, A.J. Smith is sending his No. 1 wide receiver and Pro Bowl left tackle "roster exempt'' letters.

So is Bill Belichick, the Patriots' hard-line coach, and his personnel director, Nick Caserio. Which means that all three holdouts would have to sit out three games from the time they finally report -- if they ever do.

The holdouts are, to a large extent, fallout from the labor impasse. At least that's the case with the two Chargers and Mankins, all of whom would have been unrestricted free agents had the labor contract not been voided by the owners, leaving the NFL without a salary cap. So under the rules for a capless year, they are restricted free agents, meaning their current teams can simply tender them offers mandated by the scale at their positions, then have the right to match any offer made to them and get draft picks if they sign elsewhere.

So in keeping with the character of the team, Ryan offers to hold a public negotiation with his star cornerback, runner-up for defensive player of the year last season. Presumably, the "Hard Knocks'' cameras would be there, as would the folks from Bristol, the networks and the folks from all the New York media outlets.

The Patriots and Chargers?

Smith, apparently has sent letters to his holdouts, threatening to place them on the "roster exempt'' list if they don't report by Friday. Mankins' agent, Frank Bauer, expects a similar deadline letter from the Patriots although New England, (read Belichick) is silent about such things.

But even though the Jets-Revis saga has been the noisiest, there is no indication that Johnson and general manager Mike Tannenbaum have any thoughts of following that path with their star cornerback.

The three games that players on the exempt list must miss include exhibitions, so if the holdouts report soon, there's probably little damage. But there's little indication that they will report soon and the teams hold one big card: In order to accrue a year of play and become eligible for free agency, a player must be on the active roster for six games in a season, meaning that Jackson, McNeill and Mankins must show up in time to play in those if they don't want to go through the same charade next season.

If there is a next season, of course.


The most pressing situation is not Revis because Antonio Cromartie, whom the Jets got from the Chargers during their offseason shopping spree, leaves them reasonably well fortified at cornerback.

But if the Jets are to get close to their Super Bowl aspirations they need Revis, even if they have to end up paying the $15 million or so that would match what the Raiders are paying Nnamdi Asomugha, the NFL's highest-paid cornerback.

In any case, the guess here is that after a lot of noise, the two sides will settle late in camp and Revis will be ready for the season. History says that's what happens most of the time.

The others are less likely.

Mankins is one of the half-dozen best guards in the league and with Nick Kaczur, the Patriots' other guard, currently hurt both the running game and Tom Brady's protection are in question.

Belichick, of course, shrugs when asked -- or rather mumbles.

"He's not under contract,'' he said when asked last week about his Pro Bowler, then made it clear he wasn't going to answer any questions about Mankins.

Caserio was equally vague with questions about whether the Patriots have reduced a $7 million a year, five-year contract offer that would make him among the highest-paid guards in the league. And Robert Kraft, normally the most reasonable of owners, has become something of a hard-liner on the labor negotiations and may not be willing to compromise with his star lineman.

San Diego, which got Shawne Merriman and his diminished (injury related) talent to report last week, is in even more dire straits without Jackson and McNeill.

Jackson's people point to Brandon Marshall's five-year, $47.3 million deal with the Dolphins as an example and argue that their client merits at least the same instead of the one year, $3.6 million tender he would sign if he came in. It seems a legitimate request – Jackson had 68 catches for 1,167 yards and nine touchdowns last season, a 17.2 yards per catch average that was 6.1 yards better than Marshall's in Denver.

And McNeill is certainly one of the half-dozen best left tackles in the NFL, a stud at the most important position on the offensive line.



Without both or either, Philip Rivers loses one of his two most dangerous targets (Antonio Gates is the other) and his best protector. And the Chargers' quest for its fifth-straight AFC West title, a couple of them by default, could be threatened with all three of their rivals looking at least a bit improved.

The Revis-Mankins holdouts affect the AFC East race, perhaps opening the way for Miami to finish ahead of both New England and New York if they last deep into the season.

But what it's really about is control, especially in a season when everything is overshadowed by the unpleasant labor situation.

Merriman, who had less bargaining power, realized that when he said after reporting to the Chargers: "Everybody's on the trading block. It was more a question of it being talked about so much. This team has bigger fish to fry, and that's playing the Kansas City Chiefs in a month. At no point in time did I want conversation about my future to be above the team, and at some points it got there. That's what I wanted to stay away from."

Revis, Mankins, Jackson and McNeill have more leverage.

But so do their teams.