This Year's Open to Settle the Federer-Nadal Debate ... or Will It?

The arrow keeps changing direction on the Rafael Nadal-Roger Federer rivalry, even though they rarely play each other. Or, is it the Federer-Nadal rivalry now?

Each time it shifts, it has a once-and-for-all feel to it. It is a declarative statement finalizing an argument. A few months later, it switches back.

Or maybe it switches in just a few weeks.

It has led to a complete tangle going into the U.S. Open, which starts Monday. So the belief is that Federer is the greatest player of all time, but Nadal is the greatest of this era, which, uh, includes Federer. When Nadal was the best in 2008, Federer was done. In 2009, Federer was the best ever and Nadal's expiration date was close.

But things have flip-flopped so fast the past eight weeks that we have a new dynamic in the greatest individual rivalry in sports. Early July, Nadal won Wimbledon, after having won the French Open, and bypassed Federer for good. End of August, Federer has all the momentum, and most people think he'll win the Open over Nadal, who is ranked No. 1 and is the No. 1 seed.

I think I'm getting a headache.

The new dynamic is this: the two best players are coming into a major and both have something big to prove. Federer has to show that he isn't losing it and Nadal has to show that he can win on all surfaces, win the Open on a hard court.

My feeling is that Federer is not losing it at all, and that Nadal can win the Open, and will.

A prediction: Nadal will beat Federer in the final, and that will answer the question, finally, as to which one is better.

At least until the arrow turns again.

"Last year, after the Australian Open when I lost against Nadal, people were also talking about how I was on a huge decline,'' Federer said. "I cried on center court at the Australian Open, which was a big tragedy from many people. Nobody ever believed I would come back.

"I won two slams (majors, that year) and played the finals of the U.S. Open, and then won the Australian Open, so ..."

Federer has sounded different since Wimbledon, when he lost to Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals. He has hired Paul Annacone, Pete Sampras' former coach. He has talked about a goal of reaching 20 major titles.

He now has 16.

These actions and proclamations are evidence that Federer is finally admitting to himself that things are changing for him.
He blamed his loss to Berdych on a sore back, blamed his French Open loss to Robin Soderling on the bad weather, blamed other losses in non-majors to weather and to bad luck.

To me, it's not about his age or desire. It's that one freaky-good player, Nadal, came along. And now others have lost their fear in Federer. On top of that, these tall, flat-hitting players have found the right mix of modern stiff strings and light racquets to crush the ball and push around Federer and his classic strokes.

"There's still a lot to play for. But usually, if you stay the same, you will move down. That's never something I was content with."
-- Roger Federer "There's still a lot to play for,'' he said. "But usually, if you stay the same, you will move down. That's never something I was content with.''

Nadal has one huge hole in his resume, and that's the U.S. Open.

It's the major he hasn't won, and if he's going to get into the discussion about greatest-ever, he's going to have to win it.

There is no shortage of theories for his troubles in New York. His all-out, all-the-time game requires too much effort, so by the time the Open comes up, he's worn out. The courts are too fast, taking away some of the extreme bounces from his extreme topspin. The hardcourt season beats too much on his body. He doesn't drive the ball through the court enough on a hard surface.

Nadal has lightened his summer schedule, and has started to drive the ball more on his backhand.

"Every year is different,'' he said, explaining his Open troubles.

"(It) was a physical thing a few years, other years it wasn't a physical thing. (In) 2005, I was perfect physically. That's true. I was worse playing on this surface than what I am today.''

He went through his Open results year-by-year. In 2005, he said, "I lost against (James) Blake in the third round because he played better than me, and that's all. (In) 2006, I was still worse than what I am today on this surface, but I lost in the quarterfinals because (Mikhail) Youzhny played better than me.''

In 2007, he said, his knees hurt. In 2008, he was playing great, having won the French Open, Wimbledon and the Olympics: "I arrived perfect physically, but destroyed mentally.''

Last year, he said, he lost in the semis with an abdominal tear, saying he was thrilled to get as far as he did.

Of course, they aren't the only one with a shot at winning. Berdych has all the skills and seems to be getting past his choking-habit. Andy Murray has suddenly started hitting out, playing tough since firing his coach and taking more advice from, yes, his mom. Even Andy Roddick, whose career seemed to be winding down at Wimbledon, says he has been
suffering from mono all summer. He also has a great draw here.

But Nadal-Federer is the big argument in tennis.

On Nadal's side, he almost always beats Federer. The last three times they played at a major, Nadal won in the final of the Australian, Wimbledon and the French. That's a hardcourt, grass court and clay court.

But he has never played Federer at the U.S. Open, and that's Nadal's fault. He hasn't reached the final, while Federer has done it the past six years, winning five times.

The Open is exactly why Federer is still winning this argument.

Years from now, I believe we'll look back at Nadal as the better player.

His best is better than Federer's.

And if Nadal wins this Open, beating Federer in the final, the argument for best ever is on. If Federer wins again, now, with big players using the technology and with Nadal healthy and focused on hard courts, then that will be the biggest mark on Federer's side of the argument.

"I've always questioned myself in the best of times, and also when it wasn't going so well,'' Federer said. "Thank God there was not many bad times, you know, the last seven, eight years ... That means you've also been doing some good things. So there's no need to panic.''

Of course not. Even when the final decision is made at the U.S. Open, the next major will be four months away, and the arrow will be ready to change again.

Email me at gregcouch09@aol.com; Follow me on Twitter @gregcouch