Hurricane Earl: Shades of 1985's Hurricane Gloria, or Another Forgettable Storm?

(Aug. 31) -- As the powerful and dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Earl moves northward through the western Atlantic during the remainder of the week, the difference between a track just offshore and a direct hit that affects the area from eastern North Carolina into New England is immense.

Will Earl be similar to Gloria -- a hurricane that's destined to be remembered for generations -- or will it be an easily forgettable near-miss like many storms before it?

The answer lies in the path of the storm, and just a subtle change in the storm track will give us the answer.

Hurricane Gloria was a powerful Category 5 hurricane that peaked with a sustained wind of 145 mph. Gloria moved from northeast of the Caribbean and northward along the Eastern Seaboard during September 1985, pounding the outer banks of North Carolina with a sustained wind of 100 mph before moving directly over Long Island and into New England as a weakening hurricane (sustained wind of 85 mph), leaving an immense path of damage.

Gloria caused an estimated $900 million worth of damage in 1985 dollars.

(Hurricane Gloria track -- image courtesy of NOAA)

If Gloria had taken a track a few hundred miles farther to the east, the storm would have caused rough seas and a strong rip current and would have unsettled nerves from North Carolina to New England, but it most likely would have been forgotten by most of us by now.

Earl is at a similar crossroads.

Earl is a Category 4 storm, and while some fluctuation in intensity will take place during the next two days, it's likely to remain a Category 4 storm into Thursday, before beginning to weaken as it moves into cooler water and experiences more wind shear. It will remain a hurricane well into the weekend, however.

The current forecast path projects that the center of the hurricane will remain offshore of the United States as it moves northward and then northeastward, moving into Atlantic Canada as a hurricane early Saturday.

If this is the ultimate track, the worst of the hurricane would remain offshore -- with the potential for some damage along the coast but not a devastating storm.

If Earl were to take the easternmost portion of the government's forecast window of movement, the storm would remain far enough offshore to merely produce rough seas and riptides --- it would be a storm that could easily be forgotten.

The most dangerous scenario by far for residents from North Carolina to New England would be if the hurricane were to take a track along the western end of the current forecast cone. That track would bring a major hurricane over extreme eastern North Carolina on Thursday night into early Friday and bring a formidable (most likely Category 2) hurricane inland near New York City on Friday and then through western New England as a weakening hurricane.

Such a path could cause immense damage, even more than Gloria's, since Earl is forecast to maintain more strength and the track would affect more land areas.

Fortunately, the worst-case scenario is not what forecasters are expecting; however, the range of possibilities -- from historic to forgettable -- highlights the need for residents from North Carolina to Atlantic Canada to monitor the storm closely.