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Overheard and Understood: Postseason Path Will Include Lefty Land Mines

Aug 31, 2010 – 10:30 AM
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Ed Price

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Unfortunately for fans of pennant races, we pretty much know the playoff field, except perhaps for one or two NL spots.

We also pretty much know this. To advance in the postseason, teams (especially American League teams) will have to be able to beat left-handed pitching.

Very good left-handed pitching.

For example, to get past Texas in the first round, a team would have to win a game Cliff Lee starts or sweep the other three. Same with the Yankees and CC Sabathia.

Four of the top 10 AL starters in ERA are lefties on playoff clubs: Sabathia, David Price of the Rays, and Lee and C.J. Wilson of the Rangers.

Then there's Minnesota's Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.41 ERA and third in the league in strikeouts per nine innings) and, the Yankees hope, Andy Pettitte (all-time leader in postseason wins).

If the Red Sox sneak in, they have Jon Lester. Ditto for the White Sox, with Mark Buerhle and John Danks.

It's less pronounced in the National League, but the Cardinals have Jaime Garcia (2.33 ERA), the Phillies have Cole Hamels (3.31 ERA -- 2.47 since the All-Star break), the Giants have Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito and the Padres have Clayton Richard and Wade LeBlanc.

So which teams are best equipped to beat good lefties?

In the AL, it's clearly Tampa Bay. The Rays are 31-14 when facing a left-handed starter, the best mark in the league. They are 3-0 against Lee (he has a 4.56 ERA in those starts) and 2-1 against Sabathia.

Evan Longoria has a .581 slugging percentage against left-handers, and even B.J. Upton comes alive against southpaws (.553 slugging, .385 on-base).

The Yankees have also done well against lefty starters, going 28-18 (13-5 since July 1). Robinson Cano, a left-handed hitter, has 13 homers off lefties, and Mark Teixeira has a .965 OPS hitting right-handed. Amazingly, Alex Rodriguez has hit just .198 against lefties, with three homers in 121 at-bats.

Minnesota is 27-20 against left-handed starters, including a pair of 2-1 wins in games started by Price. Despite batting left-handed, Justin Morneau had seven homers in 120 at-bats against lefties before going on the disabled list.

Texas is just 22-21 vs. lefty starters (3-8 this month), which seems odd since Nelson Cruz (1.022 OPS), Vladimir Guerrero (.923 OPS) and Michael Young (.833) have bashed lefties. They do hold Josh Hamilton to a .328 on-base percentage, and the Rangers have not beaten Sabathia, Pettitte, Price nor Liriano this season (one start each).

In the NL, the Padres have been the best against lefties, going 25-15 when the opposition starts one (14-5 at home!). One key: Adrian Gonzalez handles left-handers fine (.909 OPS, including a .415 on-base percentage).

Cincinnati is 25-18 when facing a southpaw, thanks to platoon advantages for Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Jonny Gomes, Drew Stubbs and Ramon Hernandez. And lefty hitters Joey Votto (.858 OPS) and Jay Bruce (nine homers in 145 at-bats) have fared well against southpaws. Garcia, however, is 3-0 against the Reds, although with a 4.08 ERA.

The Braves are only 23-22 against lefty starters, scoring just two runs in three games against San Diego's LeBlanc and Richard. And the lefty-heavy Phillies are 20-18 when seeing a left-hander.

The need to beat lefties means some platoon players could play big roles in October. Guys like Austin Kearns, Gabe Kapler, Marcus Thames, Sean Rodriguez, Jorge Cantu, Jason Repko, Matt Diaz and Scott Hairston could be surprise postseason heroes.

Well, not a surprise to you, if you read this far.

Around the Majors

Brandon Webb could be pitching for the Diamondbacks in mid-September, which means little to the pennant race but a lot for him. Webb, out with shoulder problems since leaving his 2009 Opening Day start, will be a free agent this winter. So how he does in his few 2010 appearances will affect what he can make on the market.

Webb has said he'd like to return to Arizona, but when agent Jonathan Maurer floated the idea of a $7-10 million base salary for 2011, Diamondbacks team president Derrick Hall told FoxSportsArizona, "It is a very strong stand."

Mauer was using as his basis contracts given last year to pitchers with an injury history. Rich Harden and Brad Penny got $7.5 million guaranteed, and Ben Sheets got $10 million without having pitched in 2009. Tim Hudson re-signed with Atlanta for $28 million over three years.

If Webb can show he's as healthy and effective as Maurer says he is, and if the New York teams -- who will likely look for pitching -- are interested, then perhaps Webb could get that kind of contract despite missing more than a season and a half. After all, none of those pitchers above have won a Cy Young Award, and Webb has.

• A scout who saw lefty Aroldis Chapman -- the Reds' Cuban defector now in relief in Triple-A -- on Friday said Chapman had the "best fastball I have ever witnessed in 25 years of pro ball." Chapman hit 105 mph, was consistently 103 mph and had a 91 mph slider. Could Chapman, to be called up Tuesday night, make a difference down the stretch and in the playoffs? Well ... "Better than Billy [Wagner]," the scout said.

• One national website recently listed 10 underrated players. How underrated do you have to be to not make such a list?

Well, Dan Uggla didn't make the list, and it's not because he's well-known.

But the Marlins second baseman is having his best season. He is on pace for career highs in slugging percentage (.515), on-base percentage (.368), home runs (36), RBI (104) and average (.286). He may not be a great fielder, but he's capable, and his offense at a middle-infield position makes him valuable.

Uggla needs one more home run this year to become the first second baseman with four 30-homer seasons (and the first Marlin, at any position, to hit 30 four times). He is the only second baseman to be a franchise's career home-run leader (150); Craig Biggio is third in Astros history and Ryne Sandberg and Frank White are fifth all-time for the Cubs and Royals, respectively.

• More evidence this is the year of the pitcher redux: including Monday night's Dodgers shutout of the Phillies, there have been 24 no-hitters or one-hitters (solo or combined), already one more than there were last year. And only one season since 1920 had more than 25 such games (1988).

• Ernie Young will manage Team USA in October as it attempts to qualify for the 2011 Pan American Games baseball tournament and 2011 IBAF Baseball World Cup. Young -- a former outfielder for the A's, Royals, Diamondbacks, Tigers and Indians -- was on the 2000 Olympics gold-medal team.

The staff includes three members of the 100-win 1999 Diamondbacks: Young and assistant coaches Jay Bell (Arizona's second baseman in 1999) and Carlos Tosca (the team's bench coach). The team will be made up of minor-league players not on 40-man rosters.

• The 1988 Indians weren't anything special, going 78-84. But that team featured three players who are now managers -- including, possibly, the two Managers of the Year: Bud Black and Ron Washington. Terry Francona also played for that Cleveland team, which was managed by Doc Edwards.
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