Changes Unlikely Among Top 12 NASCAR Drivers for Chase

Four NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers are hovering at or near 13th place in the points standings, hoping to claw their way up into the 12-driver Chase for the Sprint Cup playoff beginning Sept. 19 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Don't shift to the edge of your seat just yet, however. With two races to go before the Chase cutoff, all four drivers -- Jamie McMurray (at left in photo), Mark Martin, Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne -- are just too far back to have a reasonable chance at catching up.

It's not impossible, mind you. But if any of them do it, they will set a record for emerging from the deepest points hole ever to make the Chase.

Clint Bowyer (at right in photo) is on the bubble in 12th, and he won't be breathing easy for the next couple of weeks, even though he can take some comfort in the relatively large size of his 100-point lead over McMurray. Martin is 101 points back, while Newman trails by 118 points. Kasey Kahne, in 16th place, is 136 points behind Bowyer and realistically has no chance at all.

'Well, it's a little bit of a cushion," Bowyer said after finishing fourth at Bristol in the most recent Sprint Cup race. "But we've just got to keep doing what we're doing. If we do that, I don't think they can catch us. We've got two races to go. Two good race tracks -- I love Atlanta, run well there, and I love Richmond, run well there. With any luck at all, we'll be in this thing."

McMurray, meanwhile, is trying to ignore the points. "I don't know,everybody worries about points but every time I do, we struggle," he said at Bristol. "That's a lot of stress that you can put on yourself when you're worried about points. I appreciate you telling me how far we are out but it is really irrelevant."

Well, actually, it isn't irrelevant. It's just dang near a Mission Impossible.

Kahne is the driver who currently holds the record of coming from the furthest back, in terms of points, to make a Chase, and he set the standard only because of some magnificent performances.

With two races to go in 2006, when Kahne pulled off the track at Bristol with a nothing-to-write-home-about 12th place finish, he was 90 points behind Martin, who held the 10th and final spot in the race to the Chase (which was a 10-driver playoff from its inception in 2004 until expanding to a dozen in 2007).

"With any luck at all, we'll be in this thing."
- Clint Bowyer "There are so many good race teams right now. We've got to figure out how to be better than them," Kahne said that night three years ago. "We've got to finish in the top two or three in the next two races probably if we want to get in there if nobody else has a bad race."

KK fans well remember what happened next. Kahne stormed to victory in the next race, at California, and finished third at Richmond. And that was enough to do it, vaulting him from 11th to 10th in the Chase and from 90 points back to 16 clear of 11th.

Kahne's 106-point swing is also a race to the Chase record -- to the good or bad -- with two events to go. And it provides a slim glimmer of hope to McMurray and Martin fans that a comeback of 100-plus points is within range, having been accomplished at least once before.

NASCAR's history now includes six years of races to the Chase, and it's interesting to examine how things have gone.

For instance, the greatest jump in the standings was Martin's vault from 13th to eighth in 2004, but it involved only a 62-point swing. That same year, Kevin Harvick, who's leading the points in 2010, set the standard for the greatest nosedive, dropping from eighth to 14th, again with only a 62-point swing.

In two of the six years -- 2007and 2008 -- nobody dropped in or out of the Chase in the final two events. In the other four years, a total of five drivers clawed their way into the Chase, while, obviously, five other drivers choked their way out of it.

Here are the past race to the Chase winners and losers with two races to go, ranked by the size of the swing in points.

Race to the Chase Winners:

Kasey Kahne -- 2006: 11th to 10th place, from 90 points back of 10th to 16 ahead of 11th -- 106-point swing.

Matt Kenseth -- 2005: 11th to ninth, from 11 points behind 10th to 59 points ahead of 10th -- 70-point swing.

Mark Martin -- 2004: 13th to eighth, from 35 points behind 10th to 27 ahead of 10th -- 62-point swing.

Brian Vickers -- 2009: 14th to 12th, from 39 points behind 12th to eight points ahead of 13th -- 47-point swing.

Jeremy Mayfield -- 2004: 12th to ninth, from 35 points behind 10th to seven ahead of 10th -- 42-point swing.


Race to the Chase Losers:

Matt Kenseth -- 2009: 12th to 14th, from 34 points ahead of 13th to 38 points behind 13th -- 72-point swing.

Jeff Gordon -- 2005: 10th to 13th, from even in 10th and last cutoff spot to 83 points behind 10th -- 83-point swing.

Kevin Harvick -- 2004: eighth to 14th, from five points ahead of 10th to 57 points behind 10th -- 62-point swing.

Bobby Labonte -- 2004: ninth to 13th, from one point ahead of 10th to 49 points behind 10th -- 50-point swing.

Tony Stewart -- 2006: eighth to 11th, from seven points ahead of 10th to 16 points behind 10th -- 23-point swing.