Projecting NFC Receiving Targets to Find the Next Big Thing

Stop me if you've heard this one. Sometimes, projecting the next breakout receiver is as simple as looking at last year's passing target statistics.

What's that? You don't really compare year-to-year target statistics? Well, you should.

Take the case of Terrell Owens. The former Cowboy was leaving Dallas behind after the 2008 season, and without the team's leading receiver, there were 140 targets in that offense to be divvied up. Some were inevitably going to Roy Williams and Jason Witten, but even so, some unheralded player was going to see a ton of looks in 2009.

Enter Miles Austin. After doing nothing in the first three games of the season, receiving only four targets on offense, Austin burst out over the season's remaining 13 games, earning 120 targets for a per game average of 9.23 targets. As you know, Austin translated those 124 targets into 81 catches for 1,320 yards and 11 TDs. Yes, it can be that simple.

Below, we'll look at the passing offenses of the NFC and try and determine how many targets each viable fantasy player is slated to receive. Mired in the data will be the next big thing. Look for players projected to have 100 targets or more to find your 2010 breakout.

Arizona: Kurt Warner's Cardinals of last season called 365 rushing plays while attempting 590 passes (and getting sacked 26 times). Ken Wisenhunt isn't calling 600-plus passing plays with Derek Anderson or Matt Leinart under center. You should see about 475 rushes and 475 passes from the 2010 Cardinals. Anquan Boldin had 128 targets last year, so his removal from the offense takes care of the steep decline in pass attempts. I'd also expect the receivers to get a smaller percentage of targets with Arizona QBs looking more toward RB and TE dumpoffs.

Projected targets: 475
Split: Larry Fitzgerald 130, Steve Breaston 80, Tim Hightower 75, Early Doucet 50, Beanie Wells 50, Other 90

Atlanta: Much should be the same in Atlanta's offense this year. Roddy White should approach his 165 targets from last season, and while Tony Gonzalez should again rank second on the team, he may start receiving fewer targets. Michael Turner is reportedly due to be more involved in the passing game. Expect Turner to take a few of Gonzalez's targets and for everyone else to hold steady.

Projected targets: 525
Split: Roddy White 160, Tony Gonzalez 120, Michael Jenkins 75, Harry Douglas 60, Jerious Norwood 35, Michael Turner 30, Other 45

Carolina: Steve Smith has been the player to own in the Carolina passing game for years, and nothing should change with the switch to Matt Moore at quarterback. Smith was targeted 31 times in four games by Moore at the end of season, and Moore attempted 103 passes in those games. Do the math, and Smith earned 30 percent of the looks under Moore. Smith had 30 percent of Jake Delhomme's attempts as well. Business as usual in Carolina.

Projected targets: 440
Split: Steve Smith 125, Dwayne Jarrett 65, Brandon LaFell 60, Dante Rosario 50, DeAngelo Williams 45, Jonathan Stewart 30, Other 65

Chicago: Your average joe expects the Bears to be a pass-heavy team with Mike Martz as the field general, but realize the Bears called nearly 600 pass plays in 2009 versus just 373 rushing plays. Expect about the same number of total attempts, with two changes to the distribution. Greg Olsen shouldn't expect to lead the team in targets again (108 last season), and Earl Bennett's 88 targets will be divvied up among receivers now higher on the depth chart. Devin Hester led all receivers with 91. I think Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu will see a big uptick.

Projected targets: 520
Split: Johnny Knox 110, Devin Aromashodu 100, Devin Hester 90, Greg Olsen 80, Matt Forte 80, Other 60

Dallas: Tony Romo launched 550 pass attempts last year, and after posting a 35:9 TD:INT ratio in those 16 regular season games, Romo shouldn't be counted on for anything less again this season. Rookie Dez Bryant has showed up to snatch some of Roy Williams' targets, which is a good thing for the offense as a whole. Miles Austin and Jason Witten tied for the team lead in targets last season, with Witten catching more balls and Austin scoring more TDs. Romo, Austin and Witten should all be fantasy forces this season.

Projected targets: 530
Split: Miles Austin 150, Jason Witten 125, Dez Bryant 70, Roy Williams 60, Martellus Bennett 35, Marion Barber 35, Felix Jones 30, Other 25

Detroit: Behind often in 2009 as they are most years, the Lions wound up attempting nearly 600 passes last season. The team should be a little better and should run the ball a little more this season, but we should still see Calvin Johnson targeted plenty as the focal point of the passing offense.

Projected targets: 500
Split: Calvin Johnson 150, Nate Burleson, 90, Jahvid Best 60, Tony Scheffler 60, Brandon Pettigrew 50, Bryant Johnson 40, Other 50

Green Bay: Jermichael Finley should be the main beneficiary of more targets in Wisconsin. He and Donald Lee combined for 125 looks in 2009, with Finley receiving about 57 percent of the pie. He could have a 4-to-1 advantage over Lee this year, which would give him 100 targets. Also look for Donald Driver to be targeted a bit less, with some of his looks going to Greg Jennings and James Jones.

Projected targets: 520
Split: Greg Jennings 125, Jermichael Finley 100, Donald Driver 90, James Jones 75, Jordy Nelson 35, Ryan Grant 30, Donald Lee 25, Other 40

Minnesota: Grandfather Time is back for another run, but Brett Favre will find the Minnesota cupboard a little bare, with Sidney Rice out for half a season. Rice earned 122 targets from Favre in 2010, and I wouldn't expect many of those to go to Bernard Berrian, as he was already targeted 92 times in the offense last season. Percy Harvin, Adrian Peterson and Visanthe Shiancoe should all see more targets. Peterson also should earn a significant portion of Chester Taylor's 59 targets.

Projected targets: 510
Split: Percy Harvin 110, Bernard Berrian 90, Visanthe Shiancoe 85, Adrian Peterson 80, Greg Camarillo 60, Sidney Rice 55, Other 30

New Orleans: The Super Bowl champs aren't going to tinker with their formula too much, and their philosophy has been to spread the ball around. The only significant change in the passing offense is Jimmy Graham, who should immediately inherit David Thomas' 49 targets as the TE2. Robert Meachem is earning a lot of fantasy sleeper buzz from people expecting an uptick on his 64 targets (fifth on the team in 2009).

Projected targets: 530
Split: Marques Colston 110, Reggie Bush 80, Robert Meachem 75, Devery Henderson 70, Jeremy Shockey 60, Pierre Thomas 50, Lance Moore 45, Other 40

New York: Eli Manning attempted over 500 passes in 2009 for the fourth time in his career, and with the Giant quarterback developing nicely (his 62.9 completion percentage was easily a career high), New York should favor the pass more in 2010. It helps to have Hakeem Nicks, who could be emerging as a No. 1 receiver, as well as the sure-handed Steve Smith.

Projected targets: 525
Split: Steve Smith 130, Hakeem Nicks 110, Mario Manningham 75, Kevin Boss 70, Ahmad Bradshaw 50, Brandon Jacobs 30, Other 60

Philadelphia: Donovan McNabb may be in Washington, but that's no reason for Andy Reid to stop throwing the ball, is it? With good health, Kevin Kolb is assured of attempting over 500 passes, and he could wind up with closer to 550 on the season. Brent Celek was targeted a whopping 112 times, and that number may come down a bit next year. Jeremy Maclin could potentially see a rise in his carries, while LeSean McCoy will likely get most of Brian Westbrook's targets.

Projected targets: 530
Split: DeSean Jackson 120, Jeremy Maclin 100, Brent Celek 100, LeSean McCoy 80, Jason Avant 70, Other 60

St. Louis: Don't expect Sam Bradford to come in and wow the league with a big performance in his rookie year. Donnie Avery led all Rams with 97 targets last season, but he'll miss the year. Those looks will fall somewhere, likely to other receivers Laurent Robinson, Brandon Gibson, Danny Amendola and rookie Marty Gilyard. The Rams traded for Mark Clayton a few days before the start of the season, and Clayton will also see plenty of targets in 2010.

Projected targets: 450
Split: Steven Jackson 75, Laurent Robinson 75, Danny Amendola 70, Mark Clayton 70, Daniel Fells 65, Brandon Gibson 60, Other 40

San Francisco: Despite missing the first five games of the season, Michael Crabtree still led all 49er receivers in targets last year, and he should do so by a wide margin in 2010. He'll be lucky to top the 129 targets of Vernon Davis last season, though. Frank Gore is an excellent weapon out of the backfield that received 75 targets last year. The 49ers will probably wind up running the ball a ton against a pretty easy schedule.

Projected targets: 480
Split: Vernon Davis 110, Michael Crabtree 100, Frank Gore 70, Josh Morgan 70, Ted Ginn 60, Brian Westbrook 40, Other 30

Seattle: The Seahawks attempted over 600 passes last year, and without a quality running game in place, they should fling the ball a lot again in 2010. T.J. Houshmandzadeh earned 135 looks last season, while Nate Burleson saw 103 targets despite missing the last three games with injury. I see a big season from John Carlson as the No. 2 (or possibly No. 1) option.

Projected targets: 570
Split: Mike Williams 100, John Carlson 100, Deion Branch 90, Deon Butler 85, Golden Tate 70, Leon Washington 60, Justin Forsett 40, Other 25

Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman held his own in his rookie season, and the Buccaneers will be looking for about 500 attempts from him this season. Antonio Bryant earned 86 targets in 13 games last year, but he's gone. Rookies Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn will try and fill the primary receiving roles behind Kellen Winslow, who is falling far in fantasy drafts after being targeted 127 times last season.

Projected targets: 500
Split: Kellen Winslow 130, Mike Williams 100, Sammie Stroughter 80, Arrelious Benn 65, Cadillac Williams 45, Kareem Huggins 30, Other 50

Washington: With Donovan McNabb in town, the Redskins have their best quarterback under center in quite some time. That's good news for Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and the rest of the Washington passing offense. Running backs didn't see many targets last season, but that could change in 2010.

Projected targets: 540
Split: Santana Moss 125, Chris Cooley 90, Joey Galloway 70, Anthony Armstrong 60, Devin Thomas 50, Fred Davis 50, Clinton Portis 45, Larry Johnson 30, Other 20