East Coast Braces for Hurricane Earl

(Sept. 2) -- Hurricane Earl is a Category 2 storm, churning ever closer to the Atlantic Coast. It will pass near the barrier islands of North Carolina late tonight and will approach southeastern New England by Friday night, but the precise path of the storm will be an important factor in determining its effects.

A westward shift in the track by 100 or even 50 miles, a small error in the world of meteorology, could mean the difference between a direct hit from the storm's eyewall -- which contains the most damaging winds -- or a more glancing blow for the Outer Banks of North Carolina and eastern Massachusetts, especially Cape Cod, since the island protrudes into the Atlantic.

A glancing blow -- although not as damaging as an eyewall hit -- would most likely still result in hurricane-force winds for the outer banks of North Carolina and eastern Massachusetts and tropical-storm-force winds for other coastal areas along the storm's path.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend 70 miles from the center of Earl, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 200 miles from the center. With a glancing blow, hurricane-force winds would not extend as far inland.

National Hurricane Center forecasters said this evening that computer models were consistent with the projected path and currently indicating that a more westward track is not likely. However, the details of the storm track will need to be closely monitored by those potentially affected.

At 11 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center reported that Earl was located about 110 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., moving north-northeast at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 105 mph.

In addition to Earl, forecasters are also monitoring the paths of two other storms, Tropical Storm Fiona and Tropical Depression Gaston, along with watching yet another area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic for possible development in the next several days.

The official forecast for Tropical Storm Fiona is for the storm to remain a tropical storm as it moves northward through the Atlantic, well to the east of the United States. The storm would not be a concern for the United States, but the tropical storm could head for Bermuda, where tropical storm warnings have been issued.

If Fiona were to miss the connection to be pulled northward, then the storm could begin to strengthen as Earl moves away (Earl is currently inhibiting strengthening) and the upper-level pattern becomes more conducive to development. The result could be a hurricane sitting between Bermuda and the U.S. with the possibility of a more westward track, but government forecasters are not currently expecting that scenario.

A third tropical storm, Gaston, formed Wednesday, and has not yet entered the central Atlantic, so it's days away from being any concern to land masses, but residents in the Caribbean need to monitor the storm in the coming days.

Gaston has weakened into a tropical depression today, and forecasters this afternoon indicated that while the official forecast is for the system to remain a tropical depression as it moves westward through the Atlantic, some computer models predict that the storm could regenerate into a tropical storm or hurricane.

Forecasters are also monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic for possible development, but development during the next couple of days is highly unlikely.