Breaking Down Corey Pavin's Most Likely Ryder Cup Picks

Flick the lights. It's last call.

Tuesday in New York, one day after this week's Deutsche Bank Championship is scheduled to be completed, U.S. Ryder Cup team captain Corey Pavin announces his four at-large picks for the October matches in Wales.

Eight players -- Phil Mickelson, Hunter Mahan, Bubba Watson, Steve Stricker, Jim Furyk, Jeff Overton, Dustin Johnson, and Matt Kuchar -- already have secured spots on the team off a two-year points system.

Now Pavin gets the chance to put his lasting fingerprints on the team that will be a heavy underdog at Celtic Manor.

Only Mickelson (seven), Mahan (one), Stricker (one) and Furyk (six) have Ryder Cup experience.

"I am excited at the mix of youth, experience, aggressiveness and consistency of these players," Pavin has said.

But the team's success will inevitably be determined by Pavin's four captain's picks.

Two years ago the U.S., having lost five of the previous six competitions, won in great part thanks to the 6-3-5 record of Paul Azinger's four captain's picks. Mahan (2-0-3), Stricker (0-2-1), J.B. Holmes (2-0-1) and Chad Campbell (2-1-0) combined for 8 1/2 points in the 16 1/2-11 1/2 victory.

So Pavin has come to TPC-Boston for this week's Deutsche Bank Championship, the second in the four-event FedExCup playoff series, for one final look before making the decision that will ultimately define his captaincy.

"The last two weeks, I have been busy with making calls (and yes, texting) to all the current and potential candidates in trying to find the four best remaining players," Pavin wrote on his PGA of America blog.

"My assistant captains -- Paul Goydos, Davis Love III, Tom Lehman, and Jeff Sluman -- have been very helpful as we navigate through the remaining top 20 players trying to determine the four additions to the team."

That's probably Pavin's way of saying he doesn't need any more help.

He should know better. So here, in order of probability, are 10 players we believe should be waiting on Pavin's call -- or, yes, text.

1. Tiger Woods

Qualifying rank: 12th.

Does anyone really believe the world's No. 1 ranked player can be left at home? No. It was trendy talk a month ago to suggest a slumping Woods could be left home, but his game is inching back into form and he's absolutely in need of this challenge and its spotlight.

More importantly, he's been called out. Northern Ireland's young Rory McIlroy recently suggested anybody on the European team would gladly take on Woods and his struggling game.

Note to Rory: Be careful what you wish for.

Selection probability: 99.9 percent.

2. Zach Johnson

Qualifying rank: 11th.

The 2007 Masters champion has the experiences of one previous Ryder Cup and two Presidents Cups.

His 2010 season has not been spectacular -- a win at Colonial but only one other top 10 -- but it has been consistent -- 10 top 25s in 21 tournaments.

But if Pavin is looking for a guy to make a putt to save the day, Johnson would be on a very short list.

Selection probability: 75 percent.

3. Rickie Fowler

Qualifying ranking: 16th.

Not only would Fowler be a Ryder Cup rookie, he's still a tour rookie. That suggests Pavin would be putting his neck on a giant chopping block by gambling on the 21-year-old's significant (but inexperienced) talent.

It's worth the risk.

Fowler has a youthful swagger and a make-birdie mentality that is perfect for the Ryder Cup. He'd also partner perfectly with good buddy Bubba Watson, making a hit-it-hard combo that would be electric.

Selection probability: 45 percent.

4. Anthony Kim

Qualifying rank: 9th.

He deserves to be on the team. Kim has four top 10s this year, including a win at Houston. His play was huge in the 2008 Ryder Cup and last year's Presidents Cup. He spent all season talking about his desire to play on another national team, and was as high as third on the points list early this season and missed the final automatic qualifying spot by a slim margin.

But he probably will not get the nod.

Kim missed three months after surgery on his left thumb and only recently returned to competition. He has finished T76 with three missed cuts since.

There still is, however, another month before the matches. It would be another gamble by Pavin, but you have got to like Kim's fire.

Selection probability: 25 percent.

5. Lucas Glover

Qualifying rank: 11th.

A good team guy who would willingly accept pretty much any role. But, despite being in contention for an automatic invitation until the very end, he has only one top-20 finish (seventh in Greensboro) since a season-best third at the Players in May.

That makes his 2009 U.S. Open win seem a long, long time ago.

Selection probability: 20 percent.

6. Stewart Cink

Qualifying rank: 14th.

A well-respected veteran and all-around good guy, the 2009 British Open champ has played in four Ryder Cups and four Presidents Cups.

That's good.

His 2010 season? Not so good.

Cink is winless this year, with only three top 10s, the last one coming back in May.

Selection probability: 20 percent.

7. Bo Van Pelt

Qualifying rank: 13th

Big hitter who makes a lot of birdies but has only one career win in seven seasons and zero international team experience.

Three top 10s in 2010 came in big events: 4th in Players, 3rd in Memorial and WGC-Bridgestone. But a non-factor in majors.

Selection probability: 15 percent.

8. Ricky Barnes

Qualifying rank: 16th.

U.S. Amateur winner (that's match play) in 2002 is still without a title after finally making it to the PGA Tour in 2009.

But he does have six top 10s this year and would be another aggressive youngster (29) on a team that appears to be shaping up as aggressive and young.

Selection probability: 15 percent.

9. J.B. Holmes

Qualifying rank: 19th

He was 2-0-1 two years ago as a captain's pick.

That's worth remembering.

Selection probability: 10 percent.

10. Fred Couples

Qualifying rank: 72nd.

He's 50 and playing on the Champions Tour, but, hey, he's still Freddie.

Nobody keeps things looser than Couples, who captained last year's Presidents Cup team to a lopsided victory. He's played in five Ryder Cups and has a 2-1-2 record in singles play.

Selection probability: 5 percent.