With Earl Gone, What's the Next Threat?

(Sep. 4) -- The Atlantic hurricane season doesn't peak until the middle of September, so even though former Hurricane Earl is not yet a distant memory, with what's left of the once-powerful storm moving through the Atlantic Canada, forecasters are already focusing on the next tropical threats in the Atlantic basin.

No landfalling major storm is an immediate threat, but the possibility of development ranges from coast to coast of the Atlantic basin: the eastern Atlantic to the western Gulf of Mexico.

The biggest threat for development could more accurately be described as the biggest threat for redevelopment. The remnants of Tropical Storm Gaston, which is in the central tropical Atlantic, is showing signs of coming back to life. The short-lived tropical storm was weakened by wind shear and dry air on Thursday, resulting in its being downgraded, but thunderstorm activity has increased during the past day or so.

Forecasters at the the National Hurricane Center expect that redevelopment into a tropical cyclone -- a tropical depression or tropical storm -- is likely during the next day or two. The storm, which had been declared dissipated, would once more be named Gaston if it emerged again as a cyclone, and it could be a threat to the Caribbean, perhaps as a hurricane, by early next week since the system is expected to remain on its steady westward or west-northwestward track. In 2004, Hurricane Gaston struck the Carolinas and Virginia, but the name was not retired.


(Image courtesy of NOAA)

A second area of concern is in the eastern Atlantic, where a disturbance similar to the type that gave birth to Hurricane Danielle, Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona and Tropical Storm Gaston, is located. Atmospheric conditions have not changed much in the past few days, so development is a threat; however, it's not expected to be quick.

Threats from the distant eastern or even central Atlantic are not as much of a concern as threats from the much closer western Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Systems that develop near land are a quick threat for landfall, and forecasters are monitoring one area within this region: the southern Gulf of Mexico.

A cluster of thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche, the area where Hurricane Alex gained strength, has shown signs of organization the past couple of days. Fortunately, the proximity to land is inhibiting the would-be tropical storm; however, if the system were to drift a little northward in the next day or two, it could develop and pose an immediate threat to northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.