Tropical Storm Hermine Heads for Mexico, Texas

(Sept. 6) -- Tropical Storm Hermine headed toward the coasts of Texas and Mexico today, and could strengthen into a hurricane before coming ashore late tonight, the National Hurricane Center said.

Hermine, the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico overnight and picked up steam this morning. It had maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph and was moving north-northwest at 14 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. EDT update. The storm was about 80 miles south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.

A hurricane watch stretched from Rio San Fernando, Mexico, north to Texas' Baffin Bay, near Corpus Christi, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for La Cruz, Mexico, to Port Connor, Texas.

"It is possible this storm could become a hurricane just before landfall," said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the hurricane center in Miami. "Given the uncertainty, it's wise to let folks know this could become a hurricane, hence the hurricane watch."

The storm is expected come ashore in northeastern Mexico or south Texas and move north-northeast for the next day or so and travel into Texas, near San Antonio. The area could get 4 to 8 inches of rain and up to a foot in isolated areas.

By midmorning today, Hermine brought heavy rain to the southeast Texas coast, Feltgen said, and strong winds were expected to arrive this afternoon.

"From what we've seen this season, this is a fairly small storm," Jason Straub, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Brownsville, said earlier. "It's only taking up a small corner of the gulf versus Earl, which was the largest storm of the season. This won't have a lot of time to get any any larger before it makes landfall."

Earl was a dangerous Category 4 hurricane last week, but the storm weakened and residents along the East Coast avoided catastrophic damage as it moved north and was downgraded to a tropical storm.

The greatest risk from Hermine is the potential for flooding in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas, the same general region that had devastating flooding from Hurricane Alex and an unnamed tropical depression earlier this hurricane season.

The amount of rain in Hermine's forecast during a short period of time is capable of producing life-threatening flash flooding. Mudslides are also a risk in the more rugged terrain of northeastern Mexico. The storm, which could raise the water level 2 to 4 feet above ground level, will also create pounding waves and may cause coastal flooding and minor wind damage.

The threat of flash flooding will extend into central Texas, including the Hill country, from Tuesday into Wednesday as heavy rain associated with the remnants of Hermine move northward.

Despite its short time over the water, Hermine could develop into a hurricane, with winds 74 mph or higher, because the water is exceptionally warm and wind conditions in the upper level of the atmosphere are favorable. If landfall were delayed, Hermine would most likely become a hurricane before moving inland.

Recent Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms -- Danielle, Earl, Fiona and Gaston -- all developed well out in the Atlantic as opposed to close to the coast.

The remnants of Gaston, a short-lived tropical storm late last week, are being monitored by forecasters for possible redevelopment in the next couple of days as it continues to track westward toward the Leeward Islands.