BMW Championship Preview: Playoffs Keep Rolling

A year ago, it still looked easy for Tiger Woods.

He came to the BMW Championship at Chicago's Cog Hill and shot a third-round 62 to build a seven-shot lead to take into the final day.

He then closed with a 3-under 68 for an eight-shot victory over Jim Furyk and Marc Leishman.

It was Woods' sixth victory of the 2009 season, and propelled him to the FedExCup title and its $10 million bonus.

He has not won on the PGA Tour since.

"It felt like we had a tournament within a tournament," Furyk said. "Tiger was seven ahead. He was kind of running away. It was kind of a tournament for second place."

At least something about the week was interesting.

More than Woods' victory, last year's BMW is remembered for the cruelty it dispatched to Brandt Snedeker.

With 30 players advancing from Cog Hill to the season-ending Tour Championship, Snedeker, playing in the final group with Woods, walked to the 18th green needing only a bogey to assure he advanced. He then missed a 12-foot par putt followed by a shocking misfire from three feet that caught the left lip of the cup and came out. Snedeker was so stunned that he missed the next two putts and took triple bogey.

"I can't believe I did this," Snedeker said. "I just made a mess of it."

That allowed John Senden to capture the 30th spot by less than a half-point over Ian Poulter, two players who were hardly clutch down the stretch. Senden had a 90-yard wedge to the green at the 15th and chunked it so badly that it traveled only 50 yards. Two holes later, he nearly hit a bunker shot over the green and into the water to make double bogey.

Senden finished with 1,532.41 points. Poulter, who hit his approach into the water on the 18th, wound up with 1,531.95 points.

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But a lot has changed this year. Tiger is still looking for his first win since last year's BMW, and now his hopes for qualifying for the Tour Championship look slim. Will the world's No. 1 golfer finally get a win? What you need to know about Cog Hill, plus who's hot and who's not are all in this week's FanHouse Roundtable.

QUICK FIX

The field has been whittled down to 70 players, with only the top 30 on the FedExCup points list advancing to the season-ending Tour Championship, where the $10 million playoff bonus will be decided.

The top five on the points list are Matt Kuchar, Charley Hoffman, Steve Stricker, Jason Day and Luke Donald.

Players currently ranked 13th or better are mathematically locked and cannot fall out of the top 30, regardless of the outcome at BMW. Players currently ranked 14th to 19th are highly probable to finish inside the top 30 and advance regardless of the outcome at BMW.
-- Mick Elliott

Cog Hill's Dubsdread course underwent a $5 million Rees Jones renovation prior to last season's BMW that featured the installation of the high tech SubAir system on all 18 greens. It's one of the country's great public courses -- you can play it for $155, which is steep but reasonable for a Tour track of this regard.
-- Matt Romanoski

Last week's Deutsche Bank Championship was played at a course known for yielding low scores. Unlike TPC Boston, Cog Hill's Dubsdread will pose a much bigger challenge as PGA Tour players play for their way into the Tour Championship next week. After Dubsdread got a makeover in 2008, don't expect players to run away from the pack. Tree-lined fairways, 110 bunkers and water hazards on six holes should keep the scores close to par.
-- Chris Sesno


TIGER WATCH

Woods currently ranks 51st on the points list and likely needs a top-five finish or better at Cog Hill to advance to the Tour Championship in two weeks at East Lake GC in Atlanta. The good news for Tiger is Cog Hill is a course he has dominated. Woods has won five times there, twice in the BMW Championship and three times in the Western Open.
-- Elliott

Needing a top-five finish to advance, the pressure is all on Tiger's shoulders. These are the situations that he used to live for. He's playing better, finishing T11 last week after a 12th at the Barclays -- his best back-to-back finishes of the season -- and has won five times at Cog Hill. If it sounds like I'm trying to justify Tiger being one of the top 30 to still be playing in two weeks, it's because I am.
-- Romanoski

While Tiger's game is showing much improvement, I'm still not confident he can string together four solid rounds of golf to finish in the top five. That being said, he may not need to. Tiger shot a 62 in the third round last year to set the course record on the way to his last win on Tour. I don't see the world's No. 1 golfer going quite so low again, as he'll continue to struggle with his putter on Dubsdread's oversized greens.
-- Sesno

TOP DOWN

Early this season, Anthony Kim was No. 3 on the Ryder Cup points list. He was also near the top of the FedExCup points chase. Then he needed thumb surgery and missed three months of action. Since returning, Kim finished T76 and missed three straight cuts.

On Tuesday he failed to receive one of Corey Pavin's Ryder Cup captain's picks, and by this weekend his FedExCup hopes will likely be over.

He's a combined 15 over since his return. Last week he was 27th on the FedEx list. This week he's 34. With only the top 30 advancing, Kim is looking at more time to rehab his thumb and game.
-- Elliott

He followed up his victory at the Barclays with a T11 at the Deutche Bank to remain atop the FedEx standings, but I just get the feeling Matt Kuchar's days there are numbered.
-- Romanoski

Rory McIlroy has had trouble in the playoffs. After an impressive T3 in the PGA Championship, the 21-year-old finished T56 at The Barclays and T37 at the Deutsche Bank. Of course, he's a top-10 player who can turn it on at any moment. But transitioning to a more challenging course without any momentum won't be easy, and McIlroy will likely fly in the middle of the pack at the BMW.
-- Sesno

SLEEPING BEAUTY

Jason Day has three top-10s in the last three weeks -- and in each he has had a chance to win.

Steve Stricker is at his best in the postseason, notching his Tour-best ninth top-10 FedExCup event finish last week in Boston.

Matt Kuchar leads the FedEx chase and is returning to the golf course where he won the 1997 U.S. Amateur.
-- Elliott

Luke Donald is rolling right now, with a pair of top 15 finishes (including a T2 last week) in the last two playoff tournaments. The Northwestern alum knows the course and the area. He's currently fifth in the FedEx standings, up from 17th a week ago.
-- Romanoski

Watch out for Adam Scott. The Australian has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts, and that momentum should continue. He's striking the ball well, and if he can just get his putter rolling better, the 30-year-old will have a good shot at the top of the leaderboard.
-- Sesno

WHO'S HOISTIN'?

Stop me if you have heard this before -- on second thought, please don't, because I'm definitely repeating myself -- but I still believe Tiger Woods is the game's best player. Even more so, I can't imagine a season passing, no matter the distractions, without him finding a way to win at least once.

Now, he's pretty much out of time. Without a contending performance, he does not advance to the Tour Championship. I just don't see Tiger leaving quietly.
-- Elliott

Tiger. I know I said a few weeks back that I was done with him, but everything sets up perfectly here for him. He's won three of his last six events here, with a couple of second-place finishes and a T7 in the other three tourneys.
-- Romanoski

Steve Stricker has been in contention in both FedExCup events this year. He finished The Barclays T3 and shot bogey-free rounds of 65, 68 and 67 in the first three rounds at the Deutsche Bank. If it wasn't for a final-round 71, Stricker would be looking at two top-five finishes rather than twice in the top 10. He's putting well, hitting fairways and is showing a knack for logging birdies. Watch for him in the final group on Sunday.
-- Sesno