Who Has What It Takes to Replace Rahm Emanuel?

WASHINGTON (Sept. 8) -- Let the guessing game begin.

The news that Chicago "Mayor for Life" Richard Daley would not run for a seventh term was a shocker. Instant speculation that White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, a former congressman from Chicago, may step down to run for the job was not.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs hinted that a mayoral run could be in Emanuel's future. "Something like that doesn't come around a lot," Gibbs told reporters, suggesting there could be turnover at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. after the midterm election.

If Emanuel does leave, he would be the third, and highest-ranking, Obama aide to call it quits. White House budget director Peter Orszag and economic adviser Christina Romer have already exited. Emanuel's departure would be the clearest evidence yet that a major White House staff shakeup is on the way.

Emanuel has openly pined for an office at City Hall and would likely face competition in the Feb. 22 Democratic primary, but so far he hasn't tipped his hand. His intentions may become clearer this weekend, when he is expected back in Chicago. A possible scenario has him resigning before or just after Election Day. He has until Nov. 22 to gather 12,500 signatures to get his name on the primary ballot.

Back here in Washington, less than two months remain until an election that seems likely to whittle, if not end, the Democratic majority on Capitol Hill. With his own approval ratings in the dumps, President Barack Obama will need a chief of staff who can champion what's left of his first-term agenda while preparing for election to a second.

Should the new chief of staff be a no-holds-barred Washington insider like Emanuel? Or a fresh face -- by Washington standards -- who can bring credibility to a badly battered White House? Maybe a former governor with executive experience? Or perhaps, given the possibly redder makeup of Congress next year, even a Republican?

"It's a question of matching the person to the need. With a Democratic House and Senate -- but by a narrow margin -- newly minted President Obama needed a legislative expert with a firm hand, someone that would balance his cerebral approach with the dance of legislation realities," Democratic strategist Jano Cabrera said.

"Now the reality is different. From this point on, it's about the tough 2012 fight. He needs a Swiss army knife -- a campaign veteran that can get him ready for the fight to come; a communications guru to help focus the uber narrative; and still someone who understands the critical importance of the dance between the Hill and the White House."

His choice?

"Congratulations, Ron Klain, your blood pressure is about to go up. Or should," Cabrera said.

Vice President Joe Biden's chief of staff, who held the same title under Vice President Al Gore, Klain is considered among the front-runners for the job. At 27, he was the youngest chief counsel for the Senate Judiciary Committee, but he remained virtually unknown to the public until actor Kevin Spacey played him in the 2008 HBO movie about the 2000 presidential election, "Recount."

"He's respected on both sides of the aisle and knows not only this administration but knows the political world and knows the Hill," said former Republican Senate staffer John Ullyot, who has known and worked with Klain for years.

Others are putting their money on Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon. A political pro whose credentials go back to Jimmy Carter's presidential campaign, Donilon worked in the Clinton State Department as Secretary Warren Christopher's chief of staff. "He's got the foreign policy credentials," Ullyot said, adding, "He knows Washington inside and out."

Another insider being mentioned is senior White House adviser Pete Rouse. He worked for newly elected Sen. Obama after years as a key aide to Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, who himself is on some short lists. Daschle would have already been in the Cabinet as secretary of health and human services had it not been for controversy over his lucrative post-government private-sector career.

Several former White House chiefs of staff could come in without the need for on-the-job training. John Podesta, the founder and head of the Center for American Progress, a leading liberal idea factory, was President Bill Clinton's last right-hand man. Two other predecessors, CIA Director Leon Panetta and Erskine Bowles, co-chairman of Obama's deficit commission, are possibilities, but each has his hands full fighting terrorism and the federal debt, respectively.

Then there are lesser-known but highly seasoned political operatives who could return to the public payroll. High among them is Thomas Nides, now making a bundle on Wall Street as chief operating officer of Morgan Stanley. As chairman of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, he was among the honchos in the room when Obama announced his financial overhaul plan this spring. In his previous life, Nides was an aide to former Speaker of the House Tom Foley and later Vice President Gore. He ran Sen. Joe Lieberman's vice presidential campaign in 2000.

Another name mentioned: Steve Ricchetti, a former aide in the Clinton White House who had a hand in everything from political relations with Congress to trade relations with China.

Obama could go for a heavy hitter. That group includes Sen. Mark Warner, a former Virginia governor who is a moderate and one of the original "NASCAR Democrats." He could help the president work across the aisle. Outgoing Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell also is looking for a job, but as the former chairman of the Democratic Party and a regular on cable TV talk shows, he might have a tougher time looking bipartisan.

The president could pick a moderate Republican to show he's all about getting things done. Among the prospects -- some more plausible than others -- are Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood; former Congressman Tom Davis, now head of the dwindling Republican Main Street Partnership; BP lobbyist and former Ronald Reagan chief of staff Ken Duberstein; former Sen. John Danforth; and even former Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Finally, Obama could tap longtime Chicago friend and senior White House adviser Valerie Jarrett, a choice that would be in the mold of Clinton's first pick for chief of staff, his close Arkansas buddy Thomas "Mack" McLarty.