Tropical Storm Matthew Likely to Become Dangerous Hurricane

(Sept. 23) -- The 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Matthew, has formed in the Caribbean Sea, and the storm is likely to become a dangerous hurricane in the coming days. Matthew will first impact Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, but it may later pose a threat to the United States.

As of 11 p.m. EDT, Matthew had sustained winds of 45 mph and was located about 330 miles to the east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. National Hurricane Center forecasters expect the storm to strengthen steadily, becoming a full-fledged hurricane, perhaps as early as tomorrow evening.

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Matthew is expected to be near the Nicaragua/Honduras border tomorrow evening and then make a more direct landfall as a hurricane in Belize on Saturday night. It will then move northward toward the Gulf of Mexico, where it may threaten the U.S. during the second half of next week.

(Image courtesy of NOAA)

This track of the storm means that Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will be hit with the brunt of Matthew's fury through early next week. First, it will be northern Nicaragua and Honduras, and then it will eastern Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.

This projected course will take Matthew very close to land from Friday night through Tuesday, which will influence the intensity of the storm. Overall atmospheric conditions and sea-surface temperatures are favorable for development, so the more time spent over water will allow for Matthew to strengthen more quickly. More interaction with land means that strengthening would be disrupted.

Given the track and the potential for damaging wind and dangerous seas, along with the danger of torrential rain from the slow-moving storm, officials in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula need to monitor the storm closely.

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While U.S. government forecasters are confident that Matthew will eventually move in a more northerly direction, they do not yet know where the hurricane will go if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico -- and how much strength it will have lost due to its interaction with land.

The path may depend on the position of a strong early-season storm that's forecast to develop in the southeastern United States early next week. The strength and position of this storm will dictate Matthew's path, whether that means pulling the hurricane northward toward the Gulf Coast or shoving the hurricane eastward toward Florida or the western Atlantic.

Regardless, Tropical Storm Matthew is likely to become Hurricane Matthew and be a major weather story for at least the next week.