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The Trade Addict: Value of Michael Vick

Sep 29, 2010 – 2:00 PM
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Dan Graziano

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Michael VickThe Trade Addict doesn't have Michael Vick. His teams did too well in Week 1 to award him the waiver priority required to pick up Vick after his big second half against the Packers. Because of this, he is not confronted with the kind of decision facing many of the people who have tweeted him asking for advice the past week. But the Trade Addict is here to help, and he likes when you tweet for advice. Even if he can't make trades of his own (which he finally has, by the way, and we'll get to that later), he's happy to know there's trade action going on somewhere out there in the fantasy football universe.

The question on Vick is, of course, what to do with him. Unless you were going with Kevin Kolb as your No. 1 quarterback to start the season, if you have Vick you likely have another viable (or better) starting QB. So the Trade Addict gets questions like "Trade Vick or Schaub?" and "At this point, trust either Vick or Ben enough to trade the other?" These are good dilemmas, because while Vick has piled up his numbers against the Lions and Jaguars, there are enough bad teams in the league that we can reasonably expect him, at this point, to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback from this point forward. So if you have Vick and Schaub, or Vick and Ben Roethlisberger, you are sitting in what the Trade Addict likes to call a Position of Strength.

The answer to the first tweet is that I, personally, would trade Vick. The answer to the second is yes, I believe both Vick and Roethlisberger will be good enough the rest of the way that you can trade one if you have both, but again, I would trade Vick. And neither answer has anything to do with where I rank Vick versus Schaub or Roethlisberger the rest of the year and everything to do with present and perceived value.

Vick's value is stratospheric right now. He is this September's fantasy football "It" girl. If he were a tech gadget, he'd be the iPad. If he were an HBO series, he'd be "Boardwalk Empire." Not only is he putting up big numbers, but there is palpable, audible buzz about him everywhere you go. And if you think that doesn't matter when you're talking trade, you're nuts.

People want to feel good about their trades. Trading is difficult, and almost always involves giving up a player you don't want to give up. So if you're going to make a successful deal, a key step is to make the other owner feel good about what he's getting. In the case of Vick, you don't need to do the work. It's being done for you by the all the gushing that's going on about him. Andy Reid's gushing. ESPN analysts (fantasy and non-fantasy) are gushing. You can't throw a soft pretzel in Philadelphia or anywhere else without hitting somebody who's talking about Vick and where he ranks among the top quarterbacks in the NFL right this minute.

This doesn't mean you need to run out right now and trade Michael Vick. Is he a top-10 fantasy QB the rest of the way? I think so, sure. But top three or four? No. And right now, you may have one or more owners in your league who thinks he will be. And if you have somebody willing to pay you a price equivalent to a top-three or top-four QB for Vick, you have to take it. Especially if you already have Schaub or Roethlisberger, each of whom has far more of a track record. You may prefer to trade those other guys because you're excited about what Vick's been doing for you (or on your bench!) for the past couple of weeks. But as a smart trader, your job is to leave the emotion to the other guy. Let him be more excited about Vick than Schaub, and you're likely to get more in return for the flavor of the month than you would for the proven, reliable stud.

We've Got Action!

Hours after the publication of last week's column, the Trade Addict made his first deals of 2010. In my start-two-QBs PPR auction league, I traded Michael Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson, Matt Hasselbeck and Louis Murphy for Maurice Jones-Drew, Chad Henne and N.Y. Steve Smith. The guy I didn't want to give up was Tomlinson, who I think is performing as a starting RB for the Jets right now and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. But I felt I was upgrading at No. 1 RB, at No. 2 WR and actually at No. 3 QB (especially considering we put in a keeper provision this year, and Henne might look pretty good next August for this year's draft price). I still have Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb at QB ahead of Henne, so this week's mission is to see if I can flip McNabb or Henne for an upgrade over Beanie Wells at No. 2 RB.

In the FanHouse league, Paul Bourdett traded me Andre Johnson for Kyle Orton and Jahvid Best. I felt I was trading both high, though I was wrong on Orton because no matter what he does the rest of the year you can't claim to have dealt a guy high when he threw for almost 500 yards the next week.

Buy Low

Joe Flacco, QB - You may actually be a week late on this. But since he hasn't been great yet and has Pittsburgh this week, his owner might be souring. There are teams coming up for Baltimore after Week 5 that give up plenty of passing yards, and yes, Anquan Boldin looks as if he may be enough to vault Flacco into No. 1 QB territory.

Ronnie Brown, RB - The frustration so far is with the number of touches, and after the Dolphins threw like crazy Sunday night, people are worried. But Ricky Williams' big 2009 came out of nowhere, and the fumbling issues he's had so far this year portend a larger role for Brown going forward.

Santonio Holmes, WR - He's only out one more week. And if you think Mark Sanchez looks comfy now, wait until he has this guy to throw to. He might be tough to get, since his owners have sucked up all his time off so far, but if they're desperate, who knows?

Sell High (Other than Vick)

Kyle Orton, QB - This couldn't be more obvious, because when is he ever going to throw 57 passes in a game again? But there's more -- the schedule the next three weeks is no fun for QBs, and touchdowns are still what wins fantasy games. Orton is second in the NFL in passing yards so far but 12th in TD passes. There's a disconnect there that's not a coincidence.

Austin Collie, WR - It's not that I don't think he's good. I think he's great. It's just that he caught 12 passes out of 16 targets in Week 3, and if you can get somebody to pay you for numbers like that you should do it. Collie's going to have a fine year, but Peyton Manning's going to throw to whoever is open. Get No. 1 prices for Collie while you can.

Hakeem Nicks, WR - The Giants like the kid, but they don't like the dropped passes. New York is headed for a rough year, and Eli Manning is going to throw to guys he knows he can trust. If Nicks lets one or two more bounce off his chest, you may be sorry you held onto him.

That's all for this week, fellow traders. Hit me up on Twitter (big square button above) for midweek trade advice, and happy hunting.
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