Opinion: Just How Lousy Is the Economic Recovery?

(Oct. 18) -- It's become conventional wisdom that the country has come through the worst recession since the Great Depression. President Obama has repeatedly made this claim -- during his campaign, just before his inauguration, at a town hall meeting this September, and many times in between. Lots of commentators have as well -- and, indeed, the term Great Recession is quickly becoming the accepted name for the 2007-09 downturn.

Whether that's true isn't exactly clear. At 18 months long, the recession did last longer than the previous record holders -- by all of two months. But in terms of unemployment, the 1981-82 recession was worse. The jobless rate peaked at 10.8 percent in Nov. 1982, compared with the peak this time around of 10.1 percent.

What is crystal clear, however, is that we are in the midst of the most pathetic economic recovery since the Great Depression. As John Lott put it recently: "The only records being broken are for the stubbornly slow recovery."

Indeed, when you compare the current recovery to the recoveries from the two previous worst post-Depression recessions -- the one in 1974-75 and the one in 1981-82 -- the picture is decidedly bleak.

As the charts below make clear, economic growth is seriously lagging, unemployment is far higher, consumer confidence far lower, and the federal budget deficit much bigger than at similar points in those recoveries.

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Obama's response to this has been to say that he was dealt a terrible hand, and to say that things could have been worse if it weren't for the all the things he's done since taking office. "The challenge," he said at the Sept. town hall, "is that the hole was so deep that a lot of people out there are still hurting."

But the evidence from past recoveries shows that things could be -- and arguably should be -- much better than they are now. Which strongly suggests that, however bad the recession was, something the federal government is doing today is putting a drag on the normal recovery trajectory.

Only by admitting there's a problem will we ever have a chance of getting the current recovery back on track.

Source: Department of Commerce.

This chart shows the rate of economic growth in the five quarters after these three recessions ended.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This chart shows the unemployment rate in the 15 months after each of these three recessions ended.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This chart shows the average length of unemployment in the 15 months after each of these three recessions ended.

Source: Conference Board.

This chart shows the Consumer Confidence Index in the 15 months after these two recessions ended. (Data for the post-1974-75 recession were not available.)

Source: Department of Treasury.

This chart shows the monthly federal budget deficit in the 15 months following these two recessions. (Data for the post-1974-75 recession were not available.)