MLS Playoffs a Predictable Exercise: It's All About Fatigue

Three months ago, the Los Angeles Galaxy were a laughing stock.

The club with Major League Soccer's best record was dumped from the CONCACAF Champions League's preliminary round by the minor league Puerto Rico Islanders. L.A. lost the first leg, 4-1, at Home Depot Center.

It was a black eye for American soccer.

But it turns out the Galaxy may have been on to something.

Losing to Puerto Rico and missing out on the Champions League's group stage cut six games, plus three international flights, from the Galaxy's 2010 schedule. Their opponent in the opening round of the MLS Cup playoffs, the Seattle Sounders, did play in the group stage. Over the course of the two-game Western Conference semifinal, it was clear who was fresher. The Galaxy outworked and easily outclassed Seattle on their way to a 3-1 aggregate triumph.

Coincidence? Absolutely not.

Multiple competitions on multiple fronts are part of what makes soccer the most popular sport in the world. Clubs compete for domestic and international honors simultaneously, and continuously strive to qualify for more prestigious events. MLS is no different, but the league's limitations on salaries and roster size, plus its demanding travel schedule, adds an onerous burden. The more tournaments an MLS club plays, and the better it does, the worse it's going to perform later in the season, when the games count the most.

Major League Soccer punishes success. Here's the proof:

In 2007, MLS and the Federación Mexicana de Fútbol Asociación launched SuperLiga, an eight-team tournament designed to capitalize on the cross-border rivalry. In the summer of 2008, CONCACAF expanded its club championship to include a group stage.

Since that summer, there have 18 playoff series in MLS, including the four just completed. The team that played fewer games that year has won 15 of the 18 series. That's right, 15 of 18.

Among the three outliers, the winner played just one game more than the loser twice. The true exception is the 2009 Western Conference semi between the Houston Dynamo (41 games) and Seattle Sounders (36).

Think the MLS Cup playoffs are too hard to predict? Think they're too random? Think again. Just look at each team's schedule and count the games. It's more than an indictment of the screwy playoff format. It strikes at the very heart of the way the sport is organized in this country. Winning the league championship shouldn't come down to whether or not you did well in your domestic cup or continental championship tournament.

FanHouse did the digging, and here's a closer look at the numbers:

(Each team plays 30 regular season games. The higher seed in the series is indicated by a *)

2008

Conference Semifinals (aggregate score)

Columbus Crew* 3, Kansas City Wizards 1

Columbus - 32 games (2 U.S. Open Cup)
Kansas City - 33 games (3 U.S. Open Cup)

Chicago Fire* 3, New England 0

Chicago - 33 games (3 U.S. Open Cup)
New England - 40 games (2 CONCACAF Champions League, 5 SuperLiga, 3 U.S. Open Cup)

New York Red Bulls 4, Houston Dynamo* 1

New York - 31 games (1 U.S. Open Cup)
Houston - 44 games ( 4 CONCACAF Champions Cup, 6 CONCACAF Champions League, 5 SuperLiga, 2 Pan-Pacific Championship, 1 U.S. Open Cup)

Real Salt Lake 3, Chivas USA* 1

Salt Lake - 32 games (2 U.S. Open Cup)
Chivas - 36 games (2 CONCACAF Champions League, 3 SuperLiga, 1 U.S. Open Cup)

Conference Finals

Columbus* (34 games) 2, Chicago (35 games) 1
New York (33 games) 1, Salt Lake* (34 games) 0

MLS Cup

Columbus* (35 games) 3, New York (34 games) 1

2009

Conference Semifinals (aggregate score)

Real Salt Lake 4, Columbus Crew* 2

Salt Lake - 31 games (1 U.S. Open Cup)
Columbus - 37 games (6 CONCACAF Champions League, 1 U.S. Open Cup)

Chicago Fire* 3, New England Revolution 2

Chicago - 36 games (5 SuperLiga, 1 U.S. Open Cup)
New England - 35 games (4 SuperLiga, 1 U.S. Open Cup)

Los Angeles Galaxy* 3, Chivas USA 2

Los Angeles - 33 games (2 Pan-Pacific Championship, 1 U.S. Open Cup)
Chivas - 34 games (3 SuperLiga, 1 U.S. Open Cup)

Houston Dynamo* 1, Seattle Sounders 0

Houston - 41 games (8 CONCACAF Champions League, 3 U.S. Open Cup)
Seattle - 36 games (6 U.S. Open Cup)

Conference Finals

Salt Lake (33 games) 0(5), Chicago* (38 games) 0(4)
Los Angeles* (35 games) 2, Houston (43 games) 0

MLS Cup

Salt Lake (34 games) 0(5), Los Angeles* (36 games) 0(4)

2010

Conference Semifinals (aggregate score)

San Jose Earthquakes 3, New York Red Bulls* 2

San Jose - 31 games (1 U.S. Open Cup)
New York - 34 games (4 U.S. Open Cup)

Colorado Rapids 2(5), Columbus Crew* 2(4)

Colorado - 32 games (2 U.S. Open Cup)
Columbus - 42 games (8 CONCACAF Champions League, 4 U.S. Open Cup)

Los Angeles Galaxy* 3, Seattle Sounders 1

Los Angeles - 34 games (2 CONCACAF Champions League, 2 U.S. Open Cup)
Seattle - 42 games (8 CONCACAF Champions League, 4 U.S. Open Cup)

FC Dallas 3, Real Salt Lake* 2

Dallas - 31 games (1 U.S. Open Cup)
Salt Lake - 38 games (6 CONCACAF Champions League, 2 U.S. Open Cup)

Conference Finals

San Jose (33 games) at Colorado* (34 games)
Dallas (33 games) at Los Angeles* (36 games)
MLS has acknowledged the burden. Houston's ridiculous 2008 campaign prompted the league to change the SuperLiga qualification system to ensure that one club wasn't playing in two international competitions in the same year. SuperLiga became what it should be -- a secondary tournament similar to the UEFA Europa League or the Copa Sudamericana.

But the last two years have demonstrated that this is far from sufficient. MLS clubs, with their limited budgets and limited rosters, cannot handle the rigors of multiple competitions, especially when extensive travel is required.

They are incentivized to lose.

Why bother with the Open Cup? The Cup winner has not won an MLS playoff series in the past three years. Why not tank the Champions League? (We're not suggesting the Galaxy did). If the ultimate goal of each team is to win the MLS title, you're clearly better off limiting the number of games you have to play. MLS has created a system that runs counter to an athlete's competitive instincts.

Following the release of the Champions League elimination-round draw, which will pit Real Salt Lake against Columbus in the quarterfinals next February/March, MLS executive VP Nelson Rodriguez told FanHouse that the league is anxious to produce a continental champion and is ready to help those clubs involved on multiple fronts.

"Everything is on the table. We've not discounted anything at this point," Rodriguez said.

The rumored expansion of club rosters from 26 to 30 players certainly will help, and an increase in the salary cap obviously could do wonders as well. But doing something to relieve the actual physical burden on teams would go a long way, both toward enhancing the probability of international success and in making the MLS Cup playoffs about something more than fatigue.

"Do we extend our calendar earlier or later? Do we continue to play a balanced schedule? There are a lot of interrelated pieces that affect the entire competition puzzle and we are looking to rearrange those pieces to put together a new competition puzzle," Rodriguez said. "One that will continue continue to provide MLS with a viable and vibrant league season and playoffs but provide our teams in international competitions perhaps with a few benefits or advantages in the hopes of increasing the chances of greater success."

Rodriguez pointed to the Bundesliga as an example of a league that gives clubs involved in international competition a weekend off in order to ease fixture congestion and travel demands.

"Those are the types of things we need to start looking at to give our teams the best opportunity for success," he said.

If it's continental glory that motivates MLS, fine. But something has to be done. The league's very random playoff format has produced far-too-predictable results.

See you in Toronto, FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes.