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Targets and Touches: Peyton Hillis Carrying Fantasy Owners to Victory

Nov 11, 2010 – 6:30 AM
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Antonio D'Arcangelis

Antonio D'Arcangelis %BloggerTitle%

Peyton HillisFantasy football is all about opportunities. When your players are getting looks, they're usually producing. Targets and Touches is a weekly column that analyzes backfield touches data as well as trends for runners, receivers and tight ends being targeted by their quarterbacks. Let's break it down...

Running Backs

Peyton Hillis led all running backs on Sunday with 29 carries and 184 rushing yards. It was a dominant two-touchdown performance that propelled the Browns to an upset victory over the Patriots, who entered Week 9 with the best record in the league. Hillis, who also caught three passes for 36 yards (on three targets) is one of the top fantasy options in the NFL regardless of matchup. He accounts for about 36 percent of the Browns' total offense, gaining about 109 of the 306 yards they average each game.

Arian Foster also ran for a couple scores and had a monster game (27 carries for 127 rushing yards; 4-70-0 receiving on six targets), but the Texans failed to topple the banged-up Chargers. Backup Derrick Ward didn't have much of an impact in this one, rushing for just 12 yards on five carries.

LeGarrette Blount failed to match his gaudy numbers from Week 8 in a tough matchup against the Falcons. He rushed for 46 yards on 13 carries and didn't reach pay dirt, but gets a prime opportunity to redeem himself against a frustrated Panthers defense that travels to Tampa Bay after suffering one of the worst losses is team history.

• While Michael Turner didn't get involved at all in the team's passing game, he pounded his way to 107 yards on 24 carries and scored twice. With Jason Snelling nursing a knee injury, we could see undrafted rookie Antone Smith thrust into action for the first time this season in a change-of-pace role.

Rashard Mendenhall's 22-carry, 99-yard game was about standard for the standout back. Playing on the offensive counterpart of one of the league's finest defenses has its benefits, as Mendenhall is all but guaranteed at least 15 carries per week. He's fourth in the league with 168 carries; but the only back among the top 12 leaders in attempts with fewer receiving targets is Turner, slightly diminishing their value in PPR leagues.

Darren McFadden was the go-to-guy in the Raiders backfield, with 17 carries (for 89 yards) to Michael Bush's five. D-Mac struggled to get in space against the stifling Chiefs run defense, but performed adequately in PPR leagues with 4-25-0 to bolster his stat line. He'll have a week to rest up before taking on the Steelers, perhaps his toughest test of 2010.

• Speaking of the Chiefs... it finally happened. A noticeably feeble Thomas Jones performance (19 carries, 32 yards) helped lead to a Chiefs loss in Oakland, while Jamaal Charles (100 total yards on 15 touches) can't be blamed for the tough OT defeat at the hands of their AFC West rivals.

Fred Jackson only had eight carries for 16 yards, but his short TD run and 5-20-0 receiving line (seven targets) salvaged his fantasy day and maintained his position atop C.J. Spiller (seven carries for 20 yards) on the depth charts. A friend and former colleague of mine that loves the Bills says there's chatter about Spiller getting more touches to speed up his learning curve. As the Bills get more desperate, I can certainly see that happening, but establishing a few grinding drives with Jackson and cutting down on turnovers (one of the potential liabilities of a Spiller-based offense) gives them the best chance to win.

• Rookie Jahvid Best still ranks ahead of Kevin Smith on the Lions depth chart, although neither back was especially effective in the OT loss to the Jets. Best did have 88 total yards (16-48/0 rushing, 5-40-0 receiving), but didn't have a TD and hasn't scored since Week 2. This week, they should have an easier time against the Bills.

Ricky Williams went nearly unused on Sunday (two carries, 1 yard), and Ronnie Brown was pretty effective with 99 total yards on 14 offensive touches. Ronnie might be a nice guy to target before the trading deadline.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis also got nearly blanked (nine carries, 14 yards) in Week 9, while Danny Woodhead racked up 54 rushing yards on the same number of carries. Woodhead added 38 receiving yards on two catches (five targets). Sammy Morris didn't have a rushing attempt and lost a fumble on his only reception, which went for 22 yards.

• As a LaDainian Tomlinson owner, I'm not freaking out about the 3:2 distribution for LT and Shonn Greene, but Greene's legs are probably a lot fresher than the veteran's at this point in the season. Expect Greene to get more work between the 20s this week, with Tomlinson concentrating his efforts in the red zone against the Browns. If the Jets are going to beat the surging Browns, they'll have to run the ball effectively and cut down on turnovers -- something that killed the Pats on Sunday afternoon.

• Packers RBs John Kuhn (50 rushing yards, 2-12-0 receiving) and Brandon Jackson (42 rushing yards, TD; 4-26-1 receiving) both had 13 carries against the Cowboys, but you can't use that game as a barometer for future distribution, as it got out of hand pretty early. Jackson is more involved and should see about 60 percent of the carries in the games following the Week 10 bye.

Wide Receivers

Reggie Wayne• Reggie Wayne led all NFL receivers in Week 9 with 16 targets (11 catches, 83 yards), but with Austin Collie out following a devastating hit and the Colts trailing, he was counted on more than usual down the stretch. Wayne is a consensus top-five WR this week facing the Bengals.

• Terrell Owens had the best day of any receiver with 10-141-2 and was targeted a whopping 14 times by Carson Palmer. Chad Ochocinco expressed his frustration after the game, railing against the Pittsburgh double teams that effectively shut him down (seven targets, 1-15-0). Jordan Shipley, who also had seven targets, finished with 4-47-0 but dropped a pass in heavy traffic on 4th-and-5 -- a play that would have prolonged the game and could have set up the Bengals for a couple chances (from inside the 5-yard line) to pull out a win.

• Steve Johnson, the generic-named Buffalo receiver whose game is anything but, led his team with 14 targets and caught 11 balls for 145 yards. He's bound to get more work with the frequently-targeted Roscoe Parrish out for the rest of the year with a wrist injury. Parrish went out with a bang, contributing 7-60-1 on 11 targets in another tough loss for the Bills.

• Without Randy Moss, Percy Harvin stepped up his game (9-126-0 receiving on 12 targets) despite a sprained left ankle, and Bernard Berrian finally made a fantasy impact with 9-89-0 on 11 targets. Both receivers worked well with Brett Favre in the big win over the Cardinals, and should be busy again this week facing the Bears. When and if Sidney Rice returns, Berrian will be dispensable.

• Hakeem Nicks had another huge day. He was targeted 13 times by Eli Manning despite not playing much of the second half, and finished with six catches for 128 yards. It's the fourth time he's gone over 100 receiving yards this season and the fifth game that he recorded at least one TD. All of the Giants' fantasy-relevant receivers (Nicks, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham) are solid plays this week facing the Cowboys, who they shredded in Week 7 for 249 yards and four TDs.

• Dwayne Bowe had a receiving TD in his fourth consecutive game (seven TDs in his last six games) and had his highest target total of the season with 12. Despite his relatively low catch total (26), he's a favorite red zone target of Matt Cassel and can break off a big play at any moment.

• Jets CB Darrelle Revis shut down Calvin Johnson (seven targets, one catch, 13 yards) but Nate Burleson broke through on the other side with an excellent game. Burleson recorded 7-113-1 on eight targets, and the veteran wideout has 32 targets in his last four games. Now, they'll both have to make do with a subpar QB. The Lions have come a long way, but they're still a couple years away from being a viable contender.

• Tampa Bay WR Mike Williams just keeps on chugging along. He was targeted 10 times by Josh Freeman and caught four balls for 89 yards and a TD. Williams has only caught 36 of the 69 passes thrown his way in 2010, but he leads all rookie receivers in targets and TDs, making a lot of tough catches in the red zone.

• Andre Johnson was only targeted seven times and caught four balls for 41 yards, but teammate Kevin Walter was inactive and Jacoby Jones was equally quiet (five targets, identical 4-41-0 receiving stats). If the ankle's better, I'm expecting a major resurgence for Johnson in Week 10.

• Both Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess had five catches on eight targets, but Bess racked up 20 more yards for 50 on the day. Brian Hartline only saw five targets, but had a better day than both, with 4-85-0 in the loss to Baltimore.

• Larry Fitzgerald had his highest yardage total of 2010 with seven catches for 107 yards (no scores). His 10 targets led the team, as Steve Breaston was quiet with three catches on six targets for 28 yards.

• The biggest surprises of Week 9 were Oakland speedster Jacoby Ford (nine targets for 6-148-0), Packers WR James Jones (9, 8-123-1) and Chargers WR Seyi Ajirotutu, who stole the show with 4-111-2 on just five targets. Unfortunately, all three are on byes in Week 10, and none of these guys will have the same kind of value in Week 11.

Tight Ends

Tony Gonzalez• Jacob Tamme was targeted 17 times by Peyton Manning, and caught 11 of them for 108 yards and a TD. Tamme immediately jumps to Tier 1 status alongside Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis and Dustin Keller, and he should be started in all formats the rest of the season.

• Veteran TE Tony Gonzalez had his best game since Week 3, catching eight of the 11 balls thrown his way for 72 yards. He's only got three TDs on the year and has a tough schedule for the next few weeks (BAL, @STL, GB). Still, Gonzalez can't be benched unless you own a Tier 1 guy.

• Jason Witten (four targets, 3-44-0 in the blowout loss on Sunday night) is another veteran who's coming on strong as the Cowboys languish. There were 17 tight ends who saw more targets in Week 9, including Houston TEs Joel Dreessen (8) and James Casey (6), but Witten remains a solid play against the Giants.

• Visanthe Shiancoe caught four of the five passes thrown to him by Favre, totaling 66 yards and scoring his first TD since the opening week. He's a must-start in 12-team leagues, but has a tough matchup at Chicago this week.

• Aaron Hernandez had nine targets on Sunday, converting those opportunities into five catches for 48 yards and two TDs. Fellow Pats TE Rob Gronkowski was targeted eight times but lost a crucial fumble while trying to go in for a score before the half. That shifted the momentum back to Cleveland and New England never recovered. Hernandez could get even more work this Sunday at Pittsburgh, but I'm downgrading Gronkowski after his costly gaffe.

• Tony Moeaki owners finally got some more value out of the rookie. Targeted nine times by Matt Cassel, Moeaki finished with 6-63-0 and has a good chance of scoring this week in Denver.
Filed under: Sports
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