NASCAR Championship Scenarios as Finish Line Nears for 2010

Denny Hamlin certainly had plenty of frustration boiling over after late-race strategy failed to work in his favor. So, he took a water bottle and threw it Sunday in Phoenix.

The temperament, however, may be unjustified: Hamlin heads into Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup season-finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the proverbial driver's seat to win the 2010 crown.

Sure, the Virginia driver is sporting just a 15-point lead and could lose it by finishing second to Jimmie Johnson at Homestead.

But if that happens, Hamlin will be just the third driver in NASCAR's modern points system era to lose the championship in the season's final race. The first was 1979 when Richard Petty beat Darrell Waltrip and the second in 1992 when Alan Kulwicki topped Davey Allison.

Hamlin, however, clinches his fate by simply leading the most laps and finishing second or better. If Hamlin pulls that feat while Jimmie Johnson wins, the two will finish tied in the point standings.

Such a tie would be broken by a driver's number of race wins, thereby giving Hamlin the championship.

Naturally, Johnson can seal his fifth-straight championship in NASCAR's top division by leading the most laps and winning the race. If Hamlin finished second, he would fall by ... five points.

"I know that if we stay in the game till the last lap at Homestead, we will have a chance. That's my mindset off of those two examples," Johnson said.

The third and final contender in this championship battle may be the most dangerous, however.

Kevin Harvick trails Hamlin by 46 points and Johnson by 31, but has the best overall record at the 1.5-mile South Florida track.

In nine starts, Harvick has accumulated seven top-10 finishes and four top-5s. Harvick has also led the most laps (116) at Homestead.

"We have a great racetrack for us, and we have nothing to lose and everything to gain," Harvick said. "There's really nothing else that matters at this point. Just throw it all out there, and if it gets rough, it gets rough."

More telling may be Harvick's average finish (8.4) at Homestead -- more than two spots better than Hamlin's average finish.

For Harvick to walk away with the championship trophy, he'd likely need to put forth an incredible performance while hoping Hamlin and Johnson aren't practicing their recent success.

There's a chance those statistics may be failing on one point. The Sprint Cup Series only races at Homestead once per season, and in the previous four races Jimmie Johnson hasn't felt extreme pressure as he does this weekend and therefore raced conservatively.

He won't be able to do that this weekend, Brad Daugherty said on Wednesday's edition of Showtime's Inside NASCAR.

"You cannot play this race safe. You have to throw caution to the wind and get yourself up front. You have to be on your game, driving as hard as you can," Daugherty said.

If Harvick wins and leads the most laps, Hamlin could finish seventh -- without leading a lap -- and lose the title. If Hamlin did lead a single lap, Harvick would need Hamlin to finish ninth or worse. Finally, if Harvick won but Hamlin led the most laps, Harvick would need Hamlin to finish 11th or worse.

Johnson, of course, throws a whole other wrench into the scramble, but for clarity and brevity, should Harvick lead the most laps and win, Johnson would have to finish at minimum fourth or worse.

The mathematics of the entire situation can get confusing, and the hypotheticals tell us nothing. But all of it -- confusion and all -- signify that the NASCAR finale will have plenty of drama.