Fantasy Reality Check: Win or Go Home

Week 14 is the first week of the fantasy playoffs in most leagues, which means you're probably a lot more interested in some rankings and/or projections for the upcoming week than you are some dude's two-day-late reflection on what happened the week before.

Too bad.

In all seriousness, while rankings and projections are fun and helpful, they mean nothing without context. We don't just randomly pick someone to be the 24th-ranked running back or wide receiver. Some of it is based on matchups, but just as much is based on recent play. That's where a column like Reality Check, even late by a couple days, can come in handy. In short, by shining a light on some of the players, situations, and trends we spotted this past weekend, we can help make more informed, educated roster decisions when they count the most. What's the old saying? You can't understand the present without first looking at the past? Same concept.

Take Sam Bradford, for example. He taught us a very valuable lesson in Week 13. We now know that just because someone has a great performance against the Broncos, it doesn't automatically make them a legit fantasy starter. We also learned that a stinker against Arizona and a date with New Orleans in Week 14 pretty much makes you waiver wire fodder (peace, Sammy!)

Speaking of tough-to-trust signal-callers, how about Peyton Manning? Can you honestly say you feel 100 percent confident starting him against Tennessee on Thursday night? I know I don't. Not after watching him release his inner Favre for the umpteenth time this past Sunday. This is probably more an example of how something that's transpired in the past can actually cloud your decision-making, but it's a learning experience nonetheless.

Let's take a look at a few other Week 13 happenings and see what they might mean for your championship run.

Rice Rice Baby
Remember when I told you Sidney Rice wouldn't be a fantasy factor this season? Well, let's just say that no longer applies. Sure, his 5/105/2 line came against the 2-10 Bills, and yes, we are talking about someone whose value may be tied to Tarvaris Jackson, but here's the thing -- Jackson is actually a good thing for Rice when you consider how bad Favre has been. Do I think Rice will put up WR1 totals the rest of the way? Not really. I still don't think he's 100 percent healthy and the Vikes do face New York, Chicago, and Philly the next three weeks. But I do think he'll help out during the fantasy playoffs, as long as we've seen the last of Brett Favre.

From Goodson to Bad-son
Not only does Jonathan Stewart look spry again, but Mike Goodson suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday that could keep him out in Week 14. It's almost like he has no clue that our playoffs start this week. Great timing, Mike. .

James Starks, remember the name
The list of Green Bay running backs who've shown up on the fantasy radar this season is a long one. And yet, not a single one of them has proven themselves a dependable asset. Part of that has to do with talent, but a lot of it can be blamed on the Packers' reluctance to pound the rock (Green Bay ranks 22nd in rush attempts, including Aaron Rodgers' ground contributions). Enter rookie RB James Starks, who finished Week 13 with 18 carries for 73 rushing yards after filling in for a concussed Dimitri Nance. Not an uber-impressive performance, until you realize those 18 carries were the most by any Green Bay running back since Week 1. Brandon Jackson still figures to see work on passing downs (he's still the team's best pass-blocker) and John Kuhn has been very successful in short-yardage/goal-line situations (see two fullback dives for scores in Week 13), but if the Pack intends on maintaining some sort of offensive balance, Starks should make for a rock-solid flex play against Detroit and New England the next two weeks.

IDP stud in the making
I usually leave the IDP stuff to my main man Tony D, but I've been so impressed with what Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul has done the past couple weeks (11 total tackles, four sacks, two forced fumbles), I figured I'd give him a quick shout out. Dynasty/keeper IDPers need to be all over this guy. When his technique catches up to his raw ability and freakish athleticism, he's going to be special.

Beware of the Jets
Ladainian Tomlinson, Shonn Greene, Dustin Keller, and Braylon Edwards have combined for two TDs over the last six weeks. Mark Sanchez has an 8:11 TD/INT ratio over the same span. And by the way, their shared futility has come against the likes of Detroit, Cleveland, Houston, Cincinnati, and New England. Hardly defensive juggernauts. Now, Gang Green gets to face Miami, Pittsburgh (@PIT), and Chicago (@CHI) to close out the fantasy season. Santonio Holmes is the only guy I'm going near. Forget the rest.

Great Choice
Make no mistake -- Tashard Choice is a talented running back. That he's been buried behind Marion Barber and Felix Jones on the depth chart for the better part of the past two-plus seasons is not an indictment of his skills. Rather, it's an indictment of Jerry Jones. Forget about the fact that a team owner is actually making on-field personnel decisions; just listen to why Jones hasn't been playing Choice more:

"First of all, Tashard needs to be a better special teams player ... your third back has to be a real contributor on special teams and he's not. That really handicaps him."

Let me get this straight, J.J. -- because Choice wasn't contributing on special teams like a No. 3 RB should, you decided it was in the best interests of the team to keep him in the No. 3 role. Genius, Jerry. Genius. It took an injury to Marion Barber before Jones finally gave Choice a longer look, and now that he's produced (19 rushes, 100 yards, TD in a victory over the Colts), I can't see him giving the ball back. Felix Jones is still technically the starter and the best-case scenario probably has them splitting the load 50/50, but if I had to choose one to go into battle with this week, I'm going with Tashard. You want a Week 14 projection? How about another 100 yards and a score.

The Michael Vick Experience vs. The Peyton Manning Face
Vick outscored Manning 31-18 in Week 13, and now holds a 54-31 advantage after two weeks of play. Jump. Shark.

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.