Fantasy Football Reality Check: Adrian Peterson to the Pine in Week 15

Man, was I off the mark this week. I probably dished out more bad advice leading up to Week 14 than I did the previous two seasons combined.

Anthony Dixon over Brian Westbrook? Ouch.

Tashard Choice a borderline top-10 running back? Shame on me.

James Starks the Packers featured back? Strip me of my analyst title, please.

I was probably single-handedly responsible for the losses of millions (exaggeration intended for effect), including four of the five teams I own who got sent packing this past weekend. If not for a first-round bye, I'm positive the remaining squad would've found a way to get eliminated, too.

Where do I go from here? The way I see it, nowhere but up. In all seriousness, nobody could've predicted Aaron Rodgers getting knocked out of Sunday's game, Adrian Peterson having to go mano-e-11 after some guy named Joe Webb took over at QB, or Jason Campbell passing for 324 yards and two scores (even if it was against Jacksonville). But believe it or not, these kinds of things happen every single week. They're just more magnified now because of the whole win-or-go-home aspect of it all.

In a nutshell, these last few weeks are no different than any random two or three-week stretch during the middle of the regular season. Guys come out of nowhere to put up huge point totals, studs looks like duds, and yes, some bad quarterback always plays well enough to convince someone they're for real (see Sam Bradford).

As owners (and analysts), all we can do is try to make the smartest, most informed decisions possible. In other words, make a few educated guesses and let the chips fall where they may.

With that, let's take a look at some of the players and storylines that unfolded this past week and see if they can help inform some of our roster/lineup decisions for Week 15.

Let's get guessing!

Jump aboard the Ryan Torain?
If you've been reading my columns at all this season, you know I'm not a big fan of this guy. You can also probably guess that his performance against Tampa Bay (172 rushing yards) does little to change my mind. That said, 26 touches can't be ignored, and with Dallas and Jacksonville on tap (mediocre rush defenses at best), he deserves a place in all lineups. I don't think he'll ever go bonkers like he did in Week 14, but he could replace some of that yardage with a TD or two as the Redskins featured back.

Jets grounded
The only guy making an impact on the Jets right now is the team's strength and conditioning coach, and he's been suspended without pay. I hate to sound like a broken record, but Mark Sanchez has actually regressed from his rookie season a year ago (I didn't think that was possible), rendering Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards completely worthless. Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson have now gone scoreless for seven consecutive weeks, and they'll face PIttsburgh and Chicago the next two. For the love of fantasy football, cut off all ties to Gang Green before their putrid play spreads to the rest of your team.

Ride High?
Eighteen carries, 148 rushing yards, and two TDs for Tim Hightower? What kind of alternate universe are we living in? Some of it was Broncos-induced, I'm sure (Denver owns the league's second-worst rush defense), but the good news is that the Cards get Carolina in Week 15. The Panthers have ceded the third-most points to running backs this season, along with a league-high 17 rushing scores. I never thought I'd say this about Hightower but ... plug 'n play. Beanie Wells is an afterthought. Like way after.

Bench Adrian Peterson
No, I'm not telling you to bench Peterson for, say, Rashad Jennings (although it's an interesting thought). If I own Tim Hightower or Jonathan Stewart, though, AP's riding pine. Forget that Chicago owns the league's second-best run defense or that Peterson tallied just 51 yards on the ground the last time he played the Bears, or that his knee is a little banged up; Moses couldn't find a running lane with (insert random bad QBs name) behind center (the Vikes are currently on the hunt for a free agent QB to start for them on Monday). What you saw in Week 14 (14 carries, 26 rushing yards) was reality, folks. Don't let anybody else tell you different.

Brandon Marshall for the score!
Frame that puppy 'cause it ain't happening again (even he knows that -- did you see how excited he was when he caught the TD?) I don't care if Miami's facing Buffalo and Detroit the next two weeks; Marshall's caught just eight balls for 91 yards over his last three contests and his value is tied to Chad Henne. He's certainly not a guy I'm depending on when it counts the most. I don't care if he's a brand name.

Butter Fingers
Peyton Hillis failed to score for the second consecutive week, but he did cross the 100-total yard mark for the fourth time in five games, so who's complaining? I am, that's who. Why's that? Because I own Hillis in a keeper league and every time he coughs up the orb -- he fumbled for the eighth time this season on Sunday -- he makes the decision to keep him tougher. Remember, the Browns drafted Montario Hardesty in the second round for a reason. He'll be back next season. Just something to think about.

Alex Smith for MVP!
Psyche. Yeah, I just went 90s on you. Look, tossing three TDs after a two-month layoff is a cute story and all, but trust me when I tell you that you'll want no part of Smith against San Diego in Week 15. Even in two-QB leagues.

Patriot Games
The Pats are just toying with the league right now. They're playing on level we haven't seen since they went undefeated during the regular season back in 2007, and all the key offensive players -- BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Danny Woodhead, and Rob Gronkowski -- are must-starts until further notice. By the way, I was dead wrong on Gronkowski. Silly me to think Aaron Hernandez was the guy. The snap count (71-to-20 in favor of Gronkowski in Week 14) tells the real story.

The Michael Vick Experience vs. The Peyton Manning Face
Peyton Manning had his finest outing since Week 3 (319 passing yards, two TDs, zero turnovers, 27 fantasy points) and still couldn't match Vick's 29 points. Vick now holds an 83-58 scoring advantage since Week 12.

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.