2010 Census to Show Population Growth Slowing

WASHINGTON -- The nation's population is expected to show the slowest growth since the Great Depression as once-booming states used to constant gains have seen those stall out because of the Great Recession.

First results of the 2010 census are set to be released Tuesday. The first major data dump of the decennial population count will include national and state populations and what they mean for the apportionment of 435 House seats. Details on race and ethnicity, household makeup and other information from the 10-question census will be released later.

As it does every decade, the census report will set off a political power grab in the states that this year will likely benefit Republicans more than Democrats. But the numbers also paint a portrait of a nation often on the move, more recently not, but always in the midst of change.

Thanks to the recently released American Community Survey, a detailed demographic survey now conducted annually, and intermediary population estimates, the 2010 census is unlikely to hold many surprises. But it will confirm the impact of a "bubble to bust" decade that saw volatile migration patterns and that will reverberate in which states hold political clout for the next 10 years, said demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution.

In 2009, the Census Bureau estimated the U.S. population at 307 million.

Jeff Passel, a demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, expects the national population to grow about 10 percent, to about 309 million or 310 million. That is about the same rate as the 1980s, which began with a recession just as this last decade ended with one. That would be a noticeable decline from the 1990s, when the population grew by 13.2 percent.

Frey said the final numbers could fall short of double digits, giving the last decade the slowest growth rate since the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the population grew 7.3 percent. He said the actual gain in people could be less than the 32 million added in the 1990s, mainly because of a decline in illegal immigration related to the weak economy.

The actual numbers go online at 11 a.m. Tuesday. But here, according to Frey and Passel, are what they likely will reveal:

California is still No. 1 with close to 37 million people. But the 2010 census will likely mark the first time in nearly a century that it has not registered the biggest population gain of any state. This year, that distinction goes to Texas. This also will be the first time since California became a state in 1850 that it does not pick up seats in Congress.
The Southeast and Mountain West are the fastest-growing regions. North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia, along with Arizona, Nevada and Utah, will all see significant gains.
Texas is a whole other country in terms of population growth. Frey predicts the Lone Star State, the second most populous, will pick up four seats in Congress. Passel predicts a three-seat pickup. Most other growing states will gain just one or two at most.
Florida was on track to surpass New York for the No. 3 slot. But the housing bust of the last two years, Passel said, prompted more people to move out of the Sunshine State than move in, the first time that's happened since 1948. And the Empire State was helped by a rebound in New York City's population after the 9/11 attacks. Still, Florida is expected to pick up two seats while New York loses two in the House.
No state is expected to lose population. But Michigan, Rhode Island, North Dakota and Louisiana, which saw a mass exodus after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, all are expected to gain just 1 percent or less, Passel said.
New Jersey will drop from the top 10 states by population. Illinois and Pennsylvania are vying for the fifth and sixth most populous slots, according to Passel. Ohio, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina are expected to round out the top 10.
Wyoming remains the least populous state with fewer residents than the District of Columbia. Although both jurisdictions are on the rebound, only smaller Wyoming has a voting seat in Congress.