Opinion: What Can Explain North Korea's Behavior?

In the best attempt yet to imitate a modern-day Scrooge, North Korea is now reportedly threatening a war over Christmas lights across the demilitarized zone. This comes after a "fax attack," in which the North launched a barrage of faxes directed at South Korean companies, blaming their government for the heightened tensions.

So what's next -- an attack on South Korea's touristy amusement park at Imjingak, just a few kilometers south of the DMZ? They're having entirely too much fun over there, aren't they?

That's just the tame stuff. There have also been deadly attacks and threats of more from the North that have put the Korean peninsula on the brink of an all-out war.

Although deciphering North Korea's bizarre behavior is an inexact science, there is one explanation that makes sense -- the rapid rise of Kim Jong Un.

Some indications suggest that autocratic Kim Jong Il's transition of power to his third and youngest son, 27-year-old Kim Jong Un, has been the root cause of bolder attacks as the heir-apparent tries to prove himself to North Korea's military -- the only institution that really matters in Pyongyang. After all, the younger Kim skyrocketed from civilian to four-star general with the stroke of a pen in September.

The communist regime's attacks against South Korea have been commonplace since the armistice was signed in 1953; however, strikes this year, including the sinking of South Korean Navy Corvette Cheonan, which killed 46 sailors, and bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island, which killed two Marines and two civilians, have represented a major escalation.

So why would this transition to Kim Jong Un make such waves?

Kim Jong Il served in senior posts under Kim Il Sung (his father and regime founder), so he possessed some legitimacy to lead the country upon his father's death in 1994. Even so, it still took years to consolidate power, complicated by the fact that Kim Il Sung remains the "eternal president." Both Kim Il Sung (aka "Great Leader") and Kim Jong Il (aka "Dear Leader") are national heroes in North Korea -- their likenesses and writings form part of everyday life.

Kim Jong Un has no such experience nor the cult of personality. Educated in Switzerland and reportedly a big fan of Hollywood movies and action stars like Jean-Claude Van Damme, he is about half Kim Jong Il's age when he came to power.

Kim Jong Il's stroke in late 2008 accelerated the timeline to prepare one of his sons to keep his dynasty intact.

The "Dear Leader" since determined that his two eldest sons -- Kim Jong Nam and Kim Jong Chul, could not pass muster. Kim Jong Nam was arrested at Japan's Narita Airport in 2001 holding a forged Dominican passport, apparently in an attempt to visit Tokyo Disneyland. And it's said that Kim Jong Il views his other son, Kim Jong Chul, as too effeminate and too addicted to video games.

While a rocky succession remains in progress, Kim Jong Il's recent outreach to senior Chinese and Russian diplomats and, unofficially, to the U.S. via Gov. Bill Richardson signals an attempt to reel in tensions. Likewise, though threatening a "catastrophe" if South Korea went ahead with artillery drills at Yeonpyeong this week, Kim Jong Il merely backed down when they did.

As South Korea has upped the ante -- President Lee Myung-bak sacked his defense minister and promised air strikes if the North carries out another bombardment like at Yeonpyeong -- perhaps the "Dear Leader" is now simply trying to craft a balance in proving his son's mettle to enable a Kim Dynasty succession, while avoiding an all-out regime-destroying war.

J.D. Gordon is a communications consultant to four Washington, D.C., think tanks and a retired Navy commander who served in the office of the secretary of defense as the Pentagon spokesman for the Western Hemisphere. As a former spokesman for U.S. Naval Amphibious Forces in the Western Pacific, he spent several months in South Korea. For more info, visit www.jdgordoncommunications.com.