Opinion: The 10 Worst Predictions for 2010

If 2010 taught us anything, it's that few people are able to accurately predict even the simplest events in the near-term future, let alone the big ones. From the price of gold, to unemployment, to Google Wave, prognosticators got more than a few major items wrong in their predictions lists.

Here, in no particular order, are "10 for 10" -- 10 of the worst predictions of 2010.

Job growth will return

"Unemployment Drops Below 9 Percent," Newsweek "business predictions for 2010," December 2009.

Unfortunately, despite increasing efforts to contain our nation's unemployment epidemic, the unemployment rate never dipped below 9.5 percent, and climbed to 9.8 percent in November. Let's hope that a dip in the unemployment rate below 9.5 percent is something we will see in the coming year.

Republicans will do only OK in November

"The GOP will make good, though not great, gains in the midterms," John Berbyshire, National Review, Dec. 30, 2009

Republicans took an incredible 63 seats in the House and came within just a few seats of taking the Senate. But the next part of Derbyshire's prediction -- "They will immediately embark on a strategy guaranteed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" -- may still come to pass.

Facebook will face a major new competitor

"A new social network will rise to join the big ones." Marshall Kirkpatrick, ReadWriteWeb, Dec. 24, 2009.

Not quite. In fact, 2010 was the year of Facebook. It topped 500 million users, it was the subject of constant IPO speculation, Time named its founder Person of the Year, and it spawned a hugely successful feature film. Meantime, its competitors struggled to stay afloat (looking at you, MySpace and Bebo). In short, no one is even attempting to challenge Facebook for supremacy. Perhaps someday a new player will rise to make the king of all social networks a second-rate choice, but that day doesn't look to be coming any time soon.

Twitter will fail

"Twitter, as we know it, will fade away. Either acquired or shut down." CNBC Tech Check Predictions 2010, Dec. 1, 2009

Many predicted the downfall and/or complete demise of Twitter in 2010, and many were completely wrong. Twitter has instead silenced its critics by gaining more than 100 million users, increasing staff from 130 to 350 people and raising more than $200 million in financing, raising its value to $3.7 billion, all during the past 12 months.

Apple's iPad will flop big time

"To believe that Apple can somehow succeed where all others have failed is to ignore some fundamental realities of tablet computing." Randall C. Kennedy, Infoworld.com, Dec. 22, 2009

Apple still hasn't lost its golden touch: More than 4 million iPad buyers in a single quarter can attest to that.

Netbook sales will soar

"In 2010 ... netbooks will take off," Julia Boorstin, CNBC, Dec. 1, 2009

Between the announcement and introduction of the iPad and its many tablet-based competitors, and the lack of performance and high prices, netbook sales spiraled downward in 2010. Expect a continued free-fall in sales unless prices are slashed drastically, or the iPad ceases to exist.

Google's Wave will wash over us

"In 2010, Wave's utility will become more apparent," Pete Cashmore, CNN Tech, Dec. 3, 2009

Massively over-hyped during its introduction in late 2009, Google Wave was to be the central hub of our lives, merging our e-mail, social networking, instant messaging, wiki and every other form of digital media in one "easy to use" package. "Easy to use" it was not, however. So while some were optimistic that Google Wave's utility would shine through eventually, the rest of us decided to simply ignore its clunky, scatterbrained approach to digital life.

Google promptly flushed Wave down the toilet in August, less than a year after its introduction.

Gold will get cheaper

"A serious correction could send the precious metal toward $870," Saxo Bank analysts, cited by CNBC, Dec. 17, 2009.

Not even close to coming true. Gold prices have steadily rallied upward in the past year, rising past the $1,400 mark per troy ounce late in the year.

Mobile money will go mainstream

"By late 2010, paying for products and services via a mobile device such as a cell phone will begin to emerge in the mainstream U.S.," Jonathan Reichental, reichental.com, Jan. 1, 2010.

Another prediction that may come to pass someday but that wasn't meant to be in 2010. Simply put, people are not yet ready to give up their credit cards in favor of a "credit phone" to pay for purchases on- or offline.

Everyone will stay on the island at the end of "Lost"

"We project that at least half the cast will, of their own volition, opt to stay," Sarah Ball, Newsweek, December 2009

While the cast of ABC's monumental hit would probably have liked to stay on the island and continue to collect their handsome paychecks, writers instead opted to kill everyone off in the series' finale.

Here's one prediction you can count on coming true: Most 2011 predictions will also be spectacularly wrong, and I'll be watching.

J. Conboy is a highly opinionated freelance writer with many specialties. You can find more of his work on AOL News, AOL Travel, Luxist and various other AOL sites.