Fantasy Football Reality Check: Hail to the Chiefs

John Kuhn, Correll Buckhalter, and Danny Woodhead were top-10 running backs in Week 16. Shonn Greene, Marion Barber, and Bernard Scott cracked the top 20.

Dominic Rhodes, Ricky Williams, Maurice Morris, and Lousaka Polite -- yes, Lousaka Polite -- outscored Darren McFadden and Ahmad Bradshaw; Mike Bell, Leon Washington, and C.J. Spiller outscored Chris Johnson and Peyton Hillis; Lance Ball, Isaac Redman, D.J. Ware, Dimitri Nance, Ovie Mughelli, and Michael Bennett outproduced Michael Turner.

Crazy, right? Not really. Happens all the time.

Who can forget Lex Hilliard and Matt Moore out-pointing Frank Gore and Drew Brees in Week 16 a year ago? How about LaMont Jordan and Visanthe Shiancoe proving more valuable in the championship round than Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez two seasons ago?

Like clockwork, we hear losers -- the guys who lose leagues, not losers in general -- complain about this aspect of the game all the time. Yet it's this very same thing that makes fantasy football so popular. Think about how boring this game would be if everything happened exactly as the numbers dictated. I can't speak for all fantasy footballers but I know I'd lose interest quickly.

That's not to say we shouldn't be using data and statistics as part of our weekly roster/lineup decision processes; we just shouldn't let those things fool us into believing we're NOT playing one big guessing game. I don't care how accurate your projections are or how many fantasy titles you've won in the past. You're going to lose leagues because you made the right lineup decisions. And someone is going to destroy you by pulling names out of a hat. Such is the nature of this wonderful game we play.

With that (bad segue alert), let's take a look at a few of the things we (or I) learned in 2010 and see how we can apply them to 2011. After all, it's never too early to start preparing for next season. Even for those unfortunate owners stuck playing through Week 17.

Hail to the Chiefs!
Jamaal Charles is on pace for for 1,957 total yards (on 6.4 YPC and 10.6 YPC), despite the fact that he's been forced to split time with Thomas Jones, Matt Cassel has come into his own this season (23:2 TD/INT ratio in his last 10 contests), and Dwayne Bowe has already had a career year (67/1,094/15) with one game to play. They're also just 24, 28, and 26 years old, respectively. If Todd Haley can get out of his own way (sorry, Thomas Jones, but 3.7 YPC ain't cutting it), and they can all stay healthy, this trio could be special for a long, long time. Keep 'em all.

Kellen Winslow ain't as cooked as I thought he was
Winslow hasn't had many huge games this season, but he was a lot better than I thought he'd be. More surprisingly, he's played in all 15 games for the Bucs, he's sixth among tight ends in scoring, and he's gotten better as the season's played out (No. 2 tight end over the last five weeks, five TDs in his last seven games). If he can avoid knee surgery No. 6 this offseason, he could be even better in 2011. He is just 27 years old and only three years removed from a 82/1,106/5 campaign.

Keep the faith on Jahvid Best and Ryan Mathews
Injuries may have derailed their rookie seasons, but if healthy in 2011, these two might actually return the type of value you expected in 2010. I especially like Best, who despite dealing with turf toe all season long, will finish somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 total yards and 50-plus receptions. You saw how special he could be when he exploded for 232 yards and three scores against Philly in Week 2.

Brandon Lloyd is the real deal
I certainly didn't see this coming. By "this", I'm referring to Lloyd finishing the season as the No. 1A fantasy wideout (he finished three-tenths of a point behind Dwayne Bowe). I called him a fluke and he kept on producing. Then I gave credit to a pass-happy Broncos offense and chemistry with Kyle Orton. But now that he's getting it done with Tim Tebow at QB (9/190/1 in two games with Tebow at the helm), I'm convinced he's someone you'll want on your roster in 2011. Don't confuse Lloyd for a Mike Furrey type; he's done damage against some of the top corners in the league (Brandon Flowers, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Cortland Finnegan to name a few). Not only will he be cheaper than guys like Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, and Marques Colston on draft day, but he could very well outproduce them.

Quarterbacks to avoid in 2011
Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, and Carson Palmer. Whatever you do, don't roster these guys. Palmer may not even be a starter next season. Need I say more? Sanchez has actually regressed from his rookie campaign (last 11 games: 9/13 TD/INT ratio, 53.8% completions, 6.6 YPA; 11 of his 17 TDs this season have come against Houston, Miami, Buffalo, and New England, four teams that have combined to allow 101 passing TDs in 2010). Oh, and he's playing with an injury to his throwing shoulder. As for Bradford -- and this has been well-documented in this space over the course of the season -- if you remove the media's love affair with him -- he's been pretty horrible. The rookie finished 25th among all QBs in fantasy points (one spot behind Sanchez, four behind Palmer), and posted the lowest YPA of any starter in the NFL not named Jimmy Clausen. Colt McCoy's the rookie QB with the real promise. Remember that.

Peyton Hillis was a nice story and all ...
But his body is wearing down. Guys who ask for and dole out that much physical punishment just aren't long for role of featured back in the NFL. Throw in his fumbling issues (eight fumbles, five lost) and the fact that 2010 second-rounder Montario Hardesty will be back to vie for touches in 2011, and I can't trust that Hillis will be worth the coin most will shell out for him at the draft table. That's not to say he won't have any value -- he'll still be major goal line threat and PPR weapon -- but he won't finish anywhere close to his current No. 4 ranking among RBs. Buyer beware.

Please stop drafting Steven Jackson in the first round
In standard scoring leagues, Jackson finished 14th at the position in 2010, ninth in '09, 13th in 2008 and 15th in 2007. He's averaging a career-low (and Thomas Jones-like) 3.7 YPC this season. Any questions? Too many of 'em.

James Jones or Jordy Nelson?
How about neither? I'm not implying they'll be worthless, but neither has stepped up on a consistent basis with Jermichael Finley out of the lineup. How can we assume one of them will when Finley's back? Even if you assume Donald Driver isn't a Packer in 2011 -- he'll be making a lot of money for a soon-to-be 37-year-old wideout coming off one of the worst seasons of his career -- Jones and Nelson could very well be utilized the same way they are now (as interchangeable parts). If I had to pick one to break out, it'd probably be Jones, but I'm not overpaying to find out. For all we know, Green Bay may draft a receiver if they decide to release Driver.

C.J. Spiller could be next season's Jamaal Charles
Not like 2010 Jamaal Charles (super-stud), more like the 2009 version (stud-in-waiting). I know I said the same thing about Spiller prior to this season (I couldn't have been more wrong), but I'm still a big believer in his talent; all he really needs is the opportunity (all I'm asking for is 12-15 touches per). Of course, Fred Jackson is talented in his own right and will still be Bill in 2011, but Spiller won't be the waste of a roster spot most are assuming he'll be. There's still mucho upside here.