Pakistan Government in Crisis After Key Coalition Partner Quits

Pakistan has been plunged into a political crisis after the second-largest party in the ruling coalition announced it was joining the opposition, leaving the pro-U.S. government without a parliamentary majority.

The unexpected move by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) -- which dominates Karachi, the country's commercial capital -- has left President Asif Ali Zardari's Pakistan People's Party frantically attempting to repair the coalition and prevent the government's total collapse.

However, even if the People's Party wins back its former allies or finds a new partner, this latest crisis is certain to distract the government from Pakistan's ever-growing problems. The country is struggling to cope with 15 percent inflation, electricity shortages and the cost of rebuilding following this past summer's catastrophic floods -- which left millions of people homeless, destroyed crops and livestock and caused $10 billion in damage to the nation's infrastructure.

The government's response to that disaster -- Zardari went on a luxury foreign tour at the height of the flooding -- lost it the support of many ordinary Pakistanis. And their contempt is sure to grow if the administration becomes bogged down in endless negotiations with opposition parties.

Political paralysis is also likely to divert vital attention away from Pakistan's troubled tribal belt. That region is crucial to success in the war in neighboring Afghanistan, as Taliban and al-Qaida-aligned militants use the mountainous territory to launch attacks on NATO troops. Washington, which has pumped billions into Pakistan's anti-insurgency campaign since 2001,is pushing for the country to send troops into the region when the snows melt in the spring. The Obama administration is unlikely to be impressed by a government that's too weak, unpopular and distracted to focus on that task.

Pakistan's political crisis first flared up a week ago, when the MQM pulled its two ministers from the Cabinet, citing the People's Party's failure to tackle corruption and rising prices. Then on Sunday the MQM declared that popular discontent with economic reforms, including a revised general sales tax and a hike in fuel prices, meant it could no longer stay in the coalition. (The reforms were demanded by the International Monetary Fund, which is refusing to hand over $3.5 billion in loans until the country trims its unprecedented $14 billion deficit.)

"We'll support the government's positive steps while sitting in the opposition and will openly oppose the anti-people decisions," the MQM said in a statement, according to Agence France-Presse. "The government should immediately roll back the increase [of 9 percent] in petroleum prices and prices in general and take steps to eliminate corruption."

The MQM's move put Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani at the mercy of the head of the largest opposition party, the center-right Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), headed by former Premier Nawaz Sharif. By teaming up with the MQM, Sharif could use his party's 89 seats to force a no-confidence vote in Parliament. If Gilani, who is three years into a five-year term, lost that poll, the country would have to hold early elections. That's a daunting prospect in a nation where suicide bombers regularly target large public gatherings.

However, the MQM and Sharif's Muslim league are unlikely to team up. Members from both parties exchanged a flurry of insults in Parliament last week, reports Pakistan's Express Tribune, with rival politicians accusing each other of being alcoholics, adulterers and wig wearers.

Many political analysts also believe that Sharif intends to delay his bid for office until the next elections in 2013, reports The Washington Post, as he doesn't want to inherit a government facing a raging insurgency and chronic levels of debt.

With his job now in doubt, Gilani today held discussions with both Sharif's party and the second largest opposition group, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q). "Nothing will derail the nation's democratic process," the prime minister told reporters, according to Bloomberg. "I have asked both parties to support democracy and strengthen institutions by supporting the government."

Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, a senior PML-N official, hinted that his faction wouldn't call for a no-confidence vote. "We will not destabilize this government, but if it loses its majority we will not support it," he said, according to The Associated Press. "We will no way give it a shoulder."

Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, leader of the PML-Q, sounded more conciliatory. "We will not blackmail the government and will continue opposing and supporting it on national issues," Hussain said, according to Bloomberg. "We do not want to destabilize the government and continue our role as an opposition party."