NFL Picks: Wild Card-Weekend

OK, we all know Seattle doesn't really belong in the playoffs. And if anyone doesn't, just look at the spread: New Orleans, which is traveling 2,100 miles to the Pacific Northwest, is a 10 1/2-point road favorite for Saturday's opening postseason game.

Is it a little too much?

Well, the Saints' running game has problems: Both Pierre Thomas and rookie surprise Chris Ivory went on injured reserve this week -- leaving the major burden on fumble-prone Julius Jones, a Seahawks reject; and putting a bigger load on Reggie Bush, who is usually better with less use.

It also means Drew Brees will throw more, which probably won't be a problem.

And Brees overmatches either Matt Hasselbeck (and his sore back) or the inexperienced Charlie Whitehurst -- Pete Carroll has been coy all week about his starting quarterback. If it's Whitehurst, he'll see blitzes from Gregg Williams that ... well, he really won't see them coming and the revolving door offensive line probably won't block them.

And it's not as if the home-field advantage in Seattle is as great as it's been in the past -- the Seahawks allowed 42, 41 and 34 points at Qwest Field to the Chiefs, Giants and Falcons, respectively.

In any event, by about 8 p.m. ET Saturday, we won't have a "losing team in the playoffs'' to moan about anymore.

The first of four first-week road winners?

Saints at Seahawks (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
New Orleans Saints	- 10 1/2	27
Seattle Seahawks		10

Rex Ryan's immodesty makes him a favorite of the television cameras, although he's certainly logical -- his claim that his Jets will win it all is no more than extension of his preseason "prediction,'' if that's what it was. And although the Jets' record against Peyton Manning -- 0-5 in games the Colts were trying to win -- suggests that Rex is out of his mind. But let's not call him crazy just yet.

For these aren't anything close to other Colts teams of the Manning era. Too many injuries to receivers (Dallas Clark and Austin Collie especially) and a rather ho-hum defense that's also banged up. The New York defense hasn't been as dominant as it was, but it's still better than Indy's.

So let's make this the first upset of the postseason. Then Rex and his lads go to New England.

Good luck.

Jets at Colts (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
New York Jets		24
Indianapolis Colts	- 2 1/2	21

Another road favorite, based in part on the Chiefs' dismal showing in the finale against Oakland, and in part, because they seem to be a "just glad to be here'' team. (And no, not because Charlie Weis is leaving -- coordinators come and go all the time.)

A couple of stats of note:

The Chiefs need to run to be successful and the Ravens allow just 95 yards rushing a game. The Ravens are also third behind Pittsburgh and Green Bay in a more important category -- points allowed -- with just under 17. If Ray Rice plays as he did toward the end of the season. ...

Ravens at Chiefs (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Baltimore Ravens	- 3	22
Kansas City Chiefs		9

The Packers opened the season with a 27-20 win in Philly, a game in which they got out to a 20-3 lead before Michael Vick replaced an injured Kevin Kolb and brought the Eagles back.

Both sides have had tons of injuries since, and both have been inconsistent. In fact, if not for eight minutes of Vick heroics at the Meadowlands, this game wouldn't be taking place -- one of these two would be out of the playoffs and the Eagles would be a wild card, if they were in.

The weather may help the Eagles -- it's supposed to be windy on Sunday, which might limit Aaron Rodgers more than Vick. Although, both QBs use their legs.

Probably a back and forth game, and ...

Packers at Eagles (Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET)