Three Reasons Gates Isn't Scared of China's Stealth Fighter

The first flight of China's stealth aircraft comes at an inauspicious time for the Pentagon. Not only is Defense Secretary Robert Gates in China meeting with senior defense officials, he also recently announced a two-year delay and cut to numbers in the United States' newest stealth jet, the F-35.

Although Gates has acknowledged that U.S. intelligence may have missed the mark on when the Chinese aircraft would be developed, he still maintains it poses no threat of surpassing the U.S. military's own growing stealth fighter fleet, which consists of the F-22s and F-35s. Why isn't he concerned?

1. It's the Numbers

Although there's no way to know for sure, it would appear that China's inventory of stealth fighters consists of just one aircraft. "It is probably a safe assessment that the J-20 is the first Chinese stealth aircraft (unless it has been preceded by another, covert demonstrator), so it will be a learning tool as well as a prototype in its own right," writes Aviation Week editor Bill Sweetman.

Of course, China will build more aircraft over time, but so will the United States. "The U.S. will have approximately 1,700 of the most advanced fifth generation fighters [in 2025 versus a handful of comparable aircraft for the Chinese," Gates said in 2009. "Nonetheless, some portray this scenario as a dire threat to America's national security."

Gates estimated that in 2020, the United States will have 20 times as many stealth fighters as China will.

2. It Won't Have the Capabilities of U.S. Stealth Aircraft

There's more to an advanced, or fifth generation, fighter than the airframe. While the Chinese aircraft might have stealthy attributes, it's unclear how far along the military is with other core elements of the fighter, such as radar and weapons. Even with delays to the F-35, the U.S. has already fielded the F-22, which has sophisticated systems, like a radar warning receiver, missile approach warning system and an active electronically scanned array radar. It's also equipped with air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons.

Grainy photos and brief video clips don't provide many clues to the Chinese aircraft's overall capabilities, but it's doubtful that at this stage of development the aircraft already is equipped with advanced avionics and weapons.

3. China Is Still Years Away From Actually Fielding the Aircraft

Assuming the current aircraft is just a prototype, it's safe to assume that China still has a lot of work ahead of it. Even when China starts to build more of the aircraft, it will be well behind the U.S. military in numbers, Gates argued to Congress in 2009. "Consider that by 2020, the United States is projected to have nearly 2,500 manned combat aircraft of all kinds," Gates said in 2009. "Of those, nearly 1,100 will be the most advanced fifth generation F-35s and F-22s." That being said, U.S. intelligence has clear been off mark in the past.

In 2009, when Gates was arguing for ending production of the Air Force's stealth fighter, the F-22, he said that China "is projected to have no fifth-generation aircraft by 2020." Those numbers were clearly off, and Gates hedged his remarks the next year, saying that China might have a handful of stealth fighters in 2020.

Talking to reporters this week at a media round table in Beijing, he clarified his remarks: "What I said was that in 2020 or 2025, there would be a great disparity between the numbers of stealth aircraft that the United States had and those of any other power."

When asked this week whether anything had caused him to re-evaluate his views on China's stealth aircraft capabilities, Gates replied with one word: "No."