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Jonathan Papelbon's future as Red Sox closer came under quite a bit of scrutiny this offseason, but the team made a pretty solid show of support for him on Tuesday. They will pay Papelbon $12 million for the 2011 season, the third-most lucrative single-year deal under the arbitration process. That's a pretty good sign that all the speculation that swirled around the team involving Bobby Jenks's arrival and Daniel Bard's perceived readiness for a bigger role were much ado about nothing.
No one would have been speculating about Papelbon's future if not for the fact that Papelbon took a second straight step backward in 2010. His ERA shot up from 1.85 to 3.90 and he blew eight saves over the course of the season. The drop in effectiveness came even though his rate stats -- walks, strikeouts, homers per nine innings -- weren't significantly different than in past seasons. Nor was the batting average of balls put into play against him. That raises concerns about the health of his arm, but it seems the Sox believe he'll bounce back.
And if he doesn't, they are well stocked with alternatives before trading Papelbon or bidding him adieu at the end of the season. It is very hard to see the Sox giving Papelbon a long-term deal given the presence of Bard and the generally shaky track record of signing closers to big-money contracts.
That puts a fair amount of pressure on Papelbon to bounce back, as it will be hard for him to secure much more than a one-year "prove it" contract in 2012 if he loses his closing job this summer. It's nice to have a player operating under that kind of motivation, especially when you have decent options at the ready if he can't answer the bell.
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