US Arms Sales to Egypt: What's on the Line?

As one of the top recipients of U.S. foreign military aid in the world, Egypt has a lot to lose if civil unrest spirals and the United States cuts off assistance that is used to fund weapons sales.

So do U.S. arms manufacturers.

Egypt this year is expected to receive $1.3 billion in foreign military financing from the United States -- the same amount it's received for more than two decades -- which is then used to buy military equipment from the U.S.

Any suspension to that aid could threaten Egypt, which depends on the United States for weapons, and U.S. arms manufacturers, which depend on foreign sales for much-needed revenues.

In theory, embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's ouster could threaten that aid, since U.S. legislation prohibits assistance "to any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree."

In practice, however, there are many ways around such legislation, according to those familiar with foreign assistance, and it's unlikely the administration would choose a strict interpretation, particularly if Mubarak's successor had U.S. support.

The foreign military financing goes largely to fund the purchase of U.S. military equipment, and several large weapons sales could hinge on what happens with the government in Cairo. Among several large sales in the works is a deal worth $1.7 billion to provide Egypt with with 24 advanced F-16 fighter aircraft, one of the largest arms-transfer agreements concluded with a developing nation in 2009, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Deals announced in 2010 include a potential sale of six Ch-47 Chinook helicopters and associated parts, a deal worth up to $308 million, and support and repair of Egypt's frigates, which has a $210 million price tag.

Whether such sales will actually be endangered depends on what happens next in Egypt, according to William Hartung, director of the Arms and Security Initiative at the New America Foundation and the author of the new book "Prophets of War."

"I would think at a minimum that there would be a cooling-off period for military aid and sales to Egypt until the character of a new government could be assessed (and the new government in Egypt decided on its priorities)," he wrote in an e-mail to AOL News.

More likely, however, is that the regime change will have little impact. "The first thing that will be asked is, is this a responsible new government?" said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at the Teal Group. "Most likely it will be responsible, and the worst thing you can do is to cut them off."

Aboulafia also dismissed any concerns that a radicalized Egyptian government, armed with U.S. weapons, could threaten Israel. "Two countries with F-16 don't fight wars," he argued, in a twist on Thomas Friedman's famous "Golden Arches" theory, which stated, albeit somewhat erroneously, that countries with McDonald's don't go to war against each other.