Opinion: Egypt's Revolution -- Huge Dangers and Stark Alternatives

The uprising in Egypt has galvanized the world. But that doesn't mean the world understands what's going on.

Even now, the regime's survival is by no means impossible, but if that is going to happen, it is going to have to mobilize quickly. Meanwhile, the same U.S. policymakers who stood by as an enemy, Iran, crushed democratic protesters are pushing too hard on a friendly Egyptian regime to make big concessions.

Think how the words of U.S. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley sound in the Middle East:

"The people of Egypt no longer accept the status quo. They are looking to their government for a meaningful process to foster real reform. ... The Egyptian government can't reshuffle the deck and then stand pat. President Mubarak's words pledging reform must be followed by action."

Why is the U.S. government actively trying to overthrow not just Egypt's government but the whole order that has ruled the country for almost 60 years? Because even if that isn't the intention, that is what the U.S., in effect, is saying.

The best moderate Arabic-language newspaper, al-Sharq al-Awsat, responds to U.S. policy by asking where America was when the peaceful Iranian dissidents were being crushed. Soft when there is a revolt against America's enemy; tough when there is a revolt against America's (whatever its shortcomings) friend. What signal does this send to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the rest?

There are basically three possibilities for an outcome in Egypt, and none of them involves a moderate, democratic state:

1) The old regime continues

In this scenario, the establishment and army stick together, get rid of President Hosni Mubarak but preserve the regime. They put in charge a former Air Force commander (the same job Mubarak once held) and the intelligence chief. The elite stays united, toughs it out, does a skillful combination of co-opting and repressing the demonstrations and offers some populist reforms. In that case, it is only a minor adjustment.

2) A radical regime emerges

A second possible outcome is that the elite loses its nerve and fragments, in part demoralized by a lack of Western -- especially U.S. -- support. The Muslim Brotherhood throws its full weight behind the rebellion. Soldiers refuse to fire or join the opposition. Eventually, a radical regime emerges, with the Muslim Brotherhood as either ruler or the power behind the throne. Remember that the "moderate democratic" leaders have been largely radical and willing to work with the Brotherhood. In that case, it is a fundamental transformation.

If the regime falls, it is far more likely than not that the results will be a catastrophe that is going to be compared to the Iranian revolution -- which set off the Iran-Iraq war and led to the taking of American diplomats as hostages, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the U.S. invasion of Iraq, a massive upsurge in revolutionary Islamism, the subversion of Lebanon and the rise of Hamas.

Incidentally, note that the moderate presidential candidate this time around favors an Egyptian alliance with Hamas. The group touted as the main moderate democratic force in recent years has been taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood and is led by an anti-Semite who is extreme even by contemporary standards in the area.

3) A bloody civil war

The least likely outcome is that neither side backs down. Absolutely critical here is the Muslim Brotherhood's decision on what to do. Should it be cautious or decide that the moment for revolution has arrived? The choice is not clear, because if it picks wrong, it could be destroyed.

Have no doubt, though, that the Brotherhood is the only nongovernment group with disciplined followers, real organization and mass support. In an election where it was harassed, repressed and cheated -- thus undercounting its support -- the Brotherhood officially received 20 percent of the vote.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal and author of the Rubin Reports blog. His books include "Islamic Fundamentalists in Egyptian Politics" and "The Muslim Brotherhood: A Global Islamist Movement."