Opinion: The Man Who Told Mubarak His Time Was Up

As more than a million people massed in Cairo's now aptly named Liberation Square, President Hosni Mubarak finally bowed to reality and announced that he would not run for a seventh term as president this year.

The concession was wrung painfully from the octogenarian leader, but it may not be sufficient to appease his angry and frustrated people. Cries of "Mubarak scram" continued to rise from the crowd that wants Mubarak to step down now -- not after elections next fall -- and hand power to interim leaders who will amend the constitution and organize a free and fair vote.

That Mubarak has come this far -- just a week after protests erupted in Egypt sparked by the flight of Tunisia's strongman following a similar popular upheaval -- is a testament to the bravery of the Egyptian people and some deft diplomacy by the United States.

Last Friday, the Obama administration issued a veiled threat to cut off $1.5 billion in annual U.S. aid to Egypt. Mubarak responded by naming a vice president and a new prime minister. So on Monday, the U.S. dispatched a very special envoy to make sure Mubarak got the message.

It's hard to think of a better messenger than Frank Wisner.

Wisner served as U.S. ambassador to Egypt from 1986 to 1991 -- when he still had hair and Mubarak, now 82, didn't have to die his pitch black.

Wisner, 72, a veteran U.S. diplomatic troubleshooter who also served as ambassador to the Philippines and India and helped smooth Kosovo's independence, had the good fortune to be in Egypt when most Egyptians still had a positive view of the United States and Mubarak.

As ambassador, Wisner was enormously popular with Egyptians who thought that he respected and liked them and their culture. He had a particularly deft touch with Mubarak, who was struggling at the time to return Egypt to the center of Middle East diplomacy after the country was ostracized by the Arab League for making peace with Israel in 1979. Since leaving Cairo, Wisner has kept up his ties.

"Frank is one of the smartest and most persuasive public servants of his generation," says Jock Covey, who served as Wisner's deputy in Cairo. "He knows Egypt -- and Mubarak, [new Vice President Omar] Suleiman and [Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein] Tantawi -- as well as any American official could. And he brings a mature, considered wisdom that will serve both the U.S. and Egypt well."

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley indicated Monday that the Obama administration wanted Wisner to analyze Egypt's potential political future as well as nudge Mubarak into retirement.

"This is an opportunity both for Ambassador Wisner, who has a history with some of these key figures, to meet with them and reinforce what the president has said," Crowley explained, adding that Wisner "has the opportunity to gain a perspective on what they are thinking and what their ideas are in terms of the process that we've clearly called for."

While the path forward to what the U.S. has called an "orderly transition" remains murky, some clarity is beginning to emerge.

On Monday night, Suleiman, the new vice president and longtime intelligence chief, said he had been authorized to begin a dialogue with opposition forces. The Egyptian army, the most powerful and respected institution in the country, announced that its soldiers would not fire on peaceful demonstrators.

On Tuesday, shortly before Mubarak's announcement, U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobie met with Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency who has led a yearlong campaign for democratic rights in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood, a fundamentalist organization that has wide support in Egypt, said it had authorized ElBaradei to represent opposition forces in discussions about a new constitution and elections.

In his speech to the nation, Mubarak said he would devote his remaining "months" in office to organizing a peaceful transition. He said he took pride in his long service to the nation and that he would die on Egyptian soil -- not flee into exile like Tunisian leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

But judging from the initial popular reaction to his remarks, Mubarak will need to step down within days, not months. His apparent attempt Wednesday to gain more time -- by sending plainclothes thugs into Liberation Square to battle anti-government protesters -- is an irresponsible move that contradicts his professed desire for stability.

If he remains in denial -- and yes that is a river in Egypt -- Wisner may have to convince him that the only way he can retire with dignity is if he does it now.