2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: RB

By all measure, Arian Foster was astonishingly good in 2010. Averaging five yards per carry, the Texan back piled up 1,614 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. Throw in 66 receptions, 604 receiving yards and two more TDs and he topped Adrian Peterson, the second-best running back in the league last season, by at least 90 fantasy points. Clearly, Foster is the number one fantasy commodity in the world heading into the 2011 season.

Or maybe not.

See, Foster was incredible in 2010, but remember: fantasy points are not rewarded retroactively. Chris Johnson was likewise regarded as a can't-miss number one option heading into last season after topping 2,000 rushing yards, yet he finished fourth in 2010 behind Foster, Peterson and Jamaal Charles.

You have to nail the number one overall pick, and for that reason I'm taking Adrian Peterson above anyone in 2011. Everything that could have went wrong for the Minnesota Viking offense did, and Peterson still finished second among running backs in fantasy points even while battling knee and ankle injuries late in the year. The floor of his fantasy production is extremely high.

Foster may be asked to do a little less next year. Ben Tate, Houston's second-round pick in 2010, should also be around to complement Foster and ease a bit of his workload. The marquee back is still a lock for first-round status and is virtually certain to finish as a top-five back barring injury, but his floor is slightly lower than that of Peterson.

Tier 1

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN
2. Arian Foster, HOU
3. Chris Johnson, TEN
4. Jamaal Charles, KC

These four guys all have a shot at top-back status by the end of the year. Johnson is primed for a rebound, while Charles will see his carries raise but his per-carry average fall. Still, I'll take him in the top five without question.

Tier 2

5. LeSean McCoy, PHI
6. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
7. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
8. Ray Rice, BAL
9. Michael Turner, ATL

McCoy is developing into the new Brian Westbrook. Jones-Drew should challenge for top-back status if healthy. The other three guys are solid fantasy options with high floors that aren't likely to disappoint owners anytime soon.

Tier 3

10. Matt Forte, CHI
11. Frank Gore, SF
12. Darren McFadden, OAK

Forte has been a top-five running back over the last three years and deserves more credit than he gets. Gore and McFadden are likely to carry injury concerns, but on talent alone they are both unquestionable first-rounders.

Tier 4

13. Jahvid Best, DET
14. Steven Jackson, STL
15. Knowshon Moreno, DEN
16. LeGarrette Blount, TB
17. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
18. Peyton Hillis, CLE
19. Jonathan Stewart, CAR
20. Shonn Greene, NYJ
21. Ryan Mathews, SD
22. DeAngelo Williams, CAR

Best was remarkable in his first two games but dealt with injury for the rest of the year. He's primed to ascend this list if he can stay healthy. Moreno should benefit a great deal if/when Tim Tebow is instilled as the starter, as defenses will pay the talented back less attention. Hillis' performance belies a much higher ranking, but he failed to live up to the pounding for an entire season, and the Browns will likely try and get Montario Hardesty a nice chunk of carries to keep Hillis fresh. Stewart's stock goes up if he doesn't have to split carries with Williams. Mathews' rookie season was lost for the most part as he dealt with injury, but he's still the heir apparent to the LT throne in San Diego. Greene will likely continue to share time with LaDainian Tomlinson or another back.

Tier 5

23. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE
24. Cedric Benson, CIN
25. Felix Jones, DAL
26. Ryan Grant, GB
27. Ryan Torain, WAS

Green-Ellis will be praying the Patriots don't draft or sign a big-name running back this offseason, and why should they? The Law Firm was excellent, tying for second in the league in rushing TDs behind Foster. Danny Woodhead gets all the passing-game work; otherwise, you'd find Green-Ellis a tier higher. Grant will likely be doomed to a timeshare with up-and-comer James Starks moving forward.

Tier 6

28. Beanie Wells, ARI
29. Fred Jackson, BUF
30. Christopher Ivory, NO
31. Ronnie Brown, MIA
32. Marshawn Lynch, SEA
33. Joseph Addai, IND

Wells is the Arizona running back of the future, but he's struggled in his first two years. Jackson is by far the most talented offensive player on the Bills, but he'll probably lose even more time to C.J. Spiller. Ivory will likely fill the Pierre Thomas/Deuce McAllister role of the New Orleans offense moving forward. Brown should be looking to land on a team like New England, Green Bay or Indianapolis where he has a shot at a championship.

Tier 7

34. Mike Tolbert, SD
35. Pierre Thomas, NO
36. Michael Bush, OAK
37. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
38. Danny Woodhead, NE
39. James Starks, GB
40. C.J. Spiller, BUF
41. Thomas Jones, KC
42. LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ

Tolbert showed enough in San Diego last season that the Chargers are considering franchising the back. They wouldn't do that unless they planned to give him the ball. Bush has the chance to strike out and attempt to claim a starting job somewhere. Starks has likely earned a close-to-even split with Grant in 2011. Jones and Tomlinson can't have much left in the tank.

Tier 8

43. Ricky Williams, MIA
44. Tim Hightower, ARI
45. Rashad Jennings, JAC
46. Brian Westbrook, SF
47. Reggie Bush, NO
48. Willis McGahee, BAL
49. Montario Hardesty, CLE
50. Bernard Scott, CIN

I'd look out for Westbrook if he can latch on to an offense in need of a veteran running back like Washington or Cincinnati. Other guys that may belong on this list throughout the offseason include Ben Tate, Marion Barber, Donald Brown, Clinton Portis and Tashard Choice. Prospect Mark Ingram will certainly crack the top six tiers, and if the Dolphins draft him as expected, he could be ranked as high as the early 20s. Other prospects to watch include Mikel LeShoure, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Williams, Kendall Hunter and DeMarco Murray.