
We took a look at a few players likely to be overvalued in fantasy football leagues next season, and now it's time to check out the other side of the spectrum. A nice rule of thumb when looking for undervalued talent is to target aging veterans that have left the mainstream consciousness in fantasy football, like LaDainian Tomlinson last season, or to look at last year's potential breakout players that fell flat thanks to injury. We've done both below, though we focus a little more heavily on the injury cases, as there's a higher potential return should things break right this upcoming season.
Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
The 2009 No. 1 overall pick had a very short 2010, playing in only three games thanks to a shoulder injury. In those games, he showed that he had taken a step forward in his progression, completing about 60 percent of his passes while throwing six TDs (and running for another) and just one interception. Still, the injury concerns will have Stafford fall to the later portion of fantasy drafts in 2011.
This Detroit passing offense is primed to break out -- along with Stafford, the three Detroit QBs threw for 4,001 yards, 26 TDs and 16 interceptions last season. If Stafford, the most talented of the bunch, can remain healthy, he could top that line in 2011 if he continues to progress. Sure, his health is a big question mark, but it's one worth the risk late in fantasy drafts where a potential injury is less likely to hurt your team.
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
We're tackling another injury risk next season while staying in Detroit. Best was electric at the start of the season, rushing for 78 yards and catching nine balls for 154 yards while scoring three TDs in Week 2 against the Eagles, which was his second multi-score game in a row. Turf toe injuries caused him to lose some explosiveness and some playing time later in the season. After averaging about 19 touches a game in Detroit's first nine games, he touched the ball just 10 times per game from Week 11 on and missed one game completely.
That's going to mean that the last memory fantasy owners have of Best's 2010 season is one of disappointment. However, if he can stay healthy he has the potential to be something great. Ahmad Bradshaw conquered multiple foot injuries to become a top-15 back in 2010. Best may be more talented than Bradshaw, and he certainly will be in less of a timeshare than the Giant back was last season. Considering he should easily top Bradshaw's receiving numbers, Best is a realistic candidate for the top 10 at the running back position.
Thomas Jones, RB, KC
With Charlie Weis moving back to the college ranks, the Chiefs are likely to play more conservatively in 2011. Even though Matt Cassel shined in 2010, he's nowhere near being an elite NFL quarterback. While most would expect Jamaal Charles to see more work after averaging 6.4 yards per carry last season, it's entirely possible Charles' ability to maintain his high average all season was thanks to the presence of Jones.
Since the time-share worked so well in 2010, the Chiefs aren't likely to move away from in 2011, at least not until it stops working. That could lead to Jones, who was a borderline RB2 in fantasy leagues in 2010 with 1,018 total yards and six TDs, seeing significant fantasy value again next year. He'll likely come super-cheap in fantasy drafts, so the potential to earn solid value is definitely there.
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
Maybe it was Peyton Manning's apparent struggles, maybe it was the brief emergence of Austin Collie, or maybe it was the fact we've just become accustomed to his greatness, but Wayne is likely being undersold on his 2010 season. Case in point: I put him in the second tier of receivers in our early 2011 fantasy football rankings. The general feeling is that he disappointed last year and that he'll be drafted lower in 2011, especially with younger, more exciting options climbing up the ranks.
Wayne actually posted a career high in receptions (111) this past season while having the second-best season of his career in receiving yards (1,355). His six TDs were likely a disappointment to fantasy owners, but Wayne's TD totals have been up and down throughout his career. Who's to say he won't be back in double digits next season? He's also one of the most injury-averse receivers you'll ever meet in fantasy football, having played in every Colts game over the last eight seasons. I'll take that in my No. 1 receiver any day -- Wayne definitely belongs in the top five at the position.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI
He doesn't fit either of the two categories listed in our intro, but there's a certain stigma that comes with being an NFL team's No. 2 ranked fantasy receiver. It just feels wrong to place a second option right next to the team's more notable No. 1 guy. Most drafts will likely feature DeSean Jackson as a top-10 pick at his position, while Maclin may be taken after 10 more receivers come off the board. But if you can block Jackson's name out of your mind for a second, you'll see a very good, young receiver in Maclin.
He had 70 catches for 964 yards and another 36 yards on three carries, giving him a round 1,000 yards on the season. It matched nicely with his 10 TDs. Only nine receivers sported a 1,000-yard, 10-TD season last year. Jackson wasn't one of them. Michael Vick's mobility should continue to produce solid fantasy lines for Maclin in 2011, and his value may be closer to a WR1 than a WR2.
Owen Daniels, TE, HOU
Always a solid bet for a productive fantasy season, Daniels was sidelined throughout the 2010 offseason with a knee injury. He finally made it back to relatively full health after being limited early last season in Week 6, catching five passes for 79 yards against the Chiefs. A few weeks later, he was again out of the lineup with a hamstring injury. When he finally returned in Week 14, he closed out the season with 271 yards on 22 receptions in his last four games, and TDs in Weeks 16 and 17.
If he could have kept that pace all year, we'd be looking at over 1,000 yards, 88 receptions and eight TDs, which essentially were Jason Witten's numbers as the top tight end in 2010. Expected to finally be 100 percent at the beginning of next season, Daniels isn't going to be drafted among the top five tight ends in fantasy drafts, but he offers the upside of any other tight end in the league.
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