Spring Battles Not Always Worth Tracking

For the next seven weeks, we will get breathless updates about who is in the lead to be the Yankees' No. 5 starter, or the Mets' second baseman or the Pirates' closer.

Know what? Doesn't matter.

Those constant tweets on how guys "look," and stories handicapping a race for a roster spot are really two months of obsession over competitions whose winners are often only temporary.

"Things change so much during the course of the season," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. "You make trades. Guys get hurt. (In spring training), you're trying to cover the 'what-ifs.' It's kind of a moving target. It could change in three days."

Want proof? We tracked 36 key spring-training "battles" from 2010. Of those 36, just nine of the "winners" held that role for the entire season (two others were Jaime Garcia and Mike Leake, young pitchers that stayed in the rotation until being shut down in September to save their arms, and Nationals closer Matt Capps and Dodgers second baseman Blake DeWitt held their jobs until being traded away at the end of July).

We tracked 36 key spring-training "battles" from 2010. Of those 36, just nine of the "winners" held that role for the entire season Thus, almost two-thirds of the players in our study can attest that any job won in spring training is far from permanent. And that doesn't even include lower-profile decisions such as the final reliever on the roster or the utility infielder.

On April 4 last year, the Giants named John Bowker their Opening Day right fielder. He started seven of the first 10 games -- and 30 more the final 152.

The Cubs began the season with John Grabow and Esmailin Caridad as their main setup relievers. By April 21, they moved Carlos Zambrano from the rotation to the bullpen to try to patch that spot.

Charlie Haeger was the Dodgers' fifth starter, and it took him five starts to lose that job. Dontrelle Willis lasted eight turns as the Tigers' fifth starter.

Most good teams go into spring training with very few question marks. And even when there is an opening, the fact is that many decisions are pretty much dictated by contractual situations, and we don't mean salary.

Consider a hypothetical competition for a roster spot among three players. Player O is on the 40-man roster and has minor-league options remaining. Player N is a non-roster invitee (without a "walkaway" clause that allows him to ask for his release if he doesn't make the team). And Player X is on the 40-man roster but out of minor-league options, which means he can not be sent to the minors without first allowing every other team a chance to claim him on waivers.

* -- Shut down to save arm
** -- Traded during season

Role	Winner	Lasted Until	Role	Winner	Lasted Until
Astros C	J.R. Towles	Early May	Blue Jays SP	Brian Tallet	Late April
Blue Jays LF	Travis Snider	Mid-April	Marlins 1B	Gaby Sanchez	All Season
Brewers SP	David Bush	All Season	Marlins SP	Nate Robertson	Late July
Cardinals 3B	David Freese	Late June	Marlins SP	Chris Volstad	Mid-July
Cardinals SP	Jaime Garcia	Mid-Sept.*	Mets SP	Jonathan Niese	All Season
Cubs 2B	Mike Fontenot	Early May	Nationals CP	Matt Capps	Early Aug.**
Cubs Leadoff	Ryan Theriot	Mid-July	Nationals SS	Ian Desmond	All Season
Cubs SP	Tom Gorzelanny	Early June	Orioles SP	David Hernandez	Mid-May
Cubs SP	Carlos Silva	Mid-Sept.	Padres SP	Mat Latos	All Season
Cubs Setup	Grabow/Caridad	Late April	Phillies SP	Jamie Moyer	Late July (inj.)
Dodgers 2B	Blake DeWitt	Early Aug.	Pirates SP	Daniel McCutchen	Late April
Dodgers SP	Charlie Haeger	Mid-May	Rays SP	Wade Davis	All Season
Giants SP	Todd Wellemeyer	Mid-June	Reds SP	Mike Leake	Mid-Aug.*
Giants RF	John Bowker	Mid-April	Reds LF/CF	Gomes/Nix Stubbs/Dickerson	Early May
Indians 1B/LF	LaPorta/Brantley	Late April	Royals SP	Kyle Davies	All Season
Indians SP	David Huff	Late June	Tigers SP	Dontrelle Willis	Early June
Blue Jays SP	Dana Eveland	Early June	Yankees SP	Phil Hughes	All Season
Blue Jays SP	Brandon Morrow	Early Sept.*	Yankees LF/CF	Gardner/Granderson	All Season

If Player O wins the job, then Player N goes to the minors but Player X has to pass through waivers.

If Player N wins the job, Player O goes to the minors but Player X has to pass through waivers.

But if Player X wins the job, the organization can keep Players N and O without exposing them to waivers -- and has two alternatives if Player X falters once the season starts.

Things being relatively equal, which decision would you make? Teams will usually err on the side of keeping inventory, at least coming out of spring training.

"So many decisions, quite frankly, are made because of options and other things," Showalter said. "Organizations are going to try to keep as many players as possible and keep your flexibility."

Another reason to let the contracts dictate the decision is that smart organizations know you can get fooled in spring training.

A veteran on a non-roster deal will come in fully prepared to pitch and look dominant early in camp when other pitchers are just getting prepared for the season. One dark-horse candidate for a spot might put up great statistics in the spring -- but maybe because he was playing in the late innings of games and facing a bunch of guys wearing uniform numbers more suited to tight ends.

"On one hand," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said, "you want to have competition in camp. You want guys to come in prepared, and it adds an edge to the team. On the flip side, it's not a very good time to be making those kinds of evaluations and judgments.

"I think when mistakes are made sometimes is when you have a guy who comes in out of the blue and beats somebody out. All of a sudden, six weeks takes on more value than the previous few years. We've made those (mistakes)."

Sounds like he's learned from them, and so should we.