Israel Nervously Watches Its Neighborhood

JERUSALEM -- Israelis are growing increasingly nervous as demonstrations persist against their neighboring ruling regimes.

Israelis are worrying that a new government in Egypt could abrogate the two countries' 31-year-old peace treaty that is a cornerstone of Israel's security policy. Israelis are especially concerned about the possibility that the Muslim Brotherhood, which was outlawed under former President Hosni Mubarak, could come to power.

"This is not an Islamic revolution in Egypt," former Israeli national security adviser Uzi Dayan told AOL News. "But the Islamic organizations are the only well-organized movements in Egypt. The main factor now in the region is uncertainty and instability."

Contrasting messages have been coming out of Egypt over the past few days. One of the army's first statements said that Egypt is committed to all agreements it has made in the past. But earlier this week, Ayman Nour, a longtime opposition leader, said Egypt should reconsider its ties to Israel.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has long had close ties with Hamas in Gaza, which Israel and the U.S. describe as a terrorist organization. Two years ago, Israel launched a large-scale assault on Hamas to stop rocket fire from Gaza into southern Israel. Since the end of that war, Israeli officials say, Hamas has rearmed, mostly through hundreds of underground tunnels between Egypt and Gaza. In the recent weeks of chaos, according to Israeli officials, large-scale weapons have entered Gaza.

Most Israeli officials say they do not believe the Egyptian army will make drastic changes.

"I don't see a threat to the peace treaty in the next month," former military intelligence chief Aharon Ze'evi Farkash told visiting American Jewish leaders. "But in the long run, we have a huge challenge not only from Egypt but from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza."

Israeli officials say the threat from the radical Shiite Hezbollah in south Lebanon has increased in the past few days in advance of the anniversary of the assassination of a senior Hezbollah official, Imad Mughniye. Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the 2008 killing. According to Israeli media reports, Israel is considering temporarily closing some of its embassies abroad.

Israelis are also nervous about events in its eastern neighbor Jordan, the only other Arab country that has a peace treaty with Israel. There have been large demonstrations against King Abdullah, who recently reshuffled his cabinet.

On Monday, Jordan's justice minister attended a demonstration calling for the release of Ahmed Daqamseh, a Jordanian convicted of killing seven Israeli schoolgirls in 1997. Israel reacted harshly, saying in a statement that reports in the Jordanian media "were received with revulsion and shock" in Israel.

Jordanian officials hurried to reassure Israel that the issue is not on the cabinet's agenda.

Officials here are also concerned that the demonstrations could spill over into the West Bank and Gaza, despite efforts by Palestinian security forces to stop them.

"When the Palestinians take to the streets, the squares and the checkpoints in mass nonviolent protest against the [Israeli] occupation, they will win," wrote Gershon Baskin, co-director of the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information, an Israeli-Palestinian think tank

Many Israelis, including officials, seem overwhelmed by the speed of events. And they worry that the threats to Israel continue to increase.