Michigan State Isn't Dead ... Yet

After Michigan State's Tuesday night loss to Ohio State, the team's sixth in its last eight games, Tom Izzo vowed his team isn't yet dead

It sounded more like a challenge to our thesaurus than a statement of conviction.

At 14-11 and 6-7 in the Big Ten, the Spartans may not technically be expired, passed away or pushing up daisies. Then again neither is Dane Cook's career.

At this point, neither are a laughing matter.

The Spartans, who began the year ranked No. 2, have slumped badly. What started in June with the team hugging Izzo like a bunch of sixth-graders at a camp reunion, when the coach announced he wouldn't be taking his talents to Cleveland, has dissolved into a big green mess.

Guards Chris Allen and Korie Lucious are transferring to Iowa State, hyped freshman Adreian Payne has struggled and returning stars Kalin Lucas, Draymond Green and Durrell Summers haven't been able to carry the team.

Wednesday night served as a particular low point for Summers, who managed zero points and seemed about as enthusiastic as a man in a dentist's waiting room.

As a result, even in a down year for college basketball, with three extra at-large bids for the taking, NCAA tournament fixture Michigan State is looking like a risky bet for March Madness.

Of course, slow starts are nothing new for the Spartans. Heck, they're what Swiss watchmakers set their own timepieces by.

Izzo himself even bemoaned the team's late-season reputation in December, before falling into the exact same pattern this year. At least the slump part.

"As everybody says, my teams are never good until the end of the year," Izzo said after his team lost to Duke Dec. 1. "I'm getting sick of that."

Good news, coach. No one expects much of your team now.

This year's slump presents a daunting challenge even for the Spartans, but Izzo is right. His Spartans aren't entirely toast, kicking the bucket or expired yet.

Michigan State has three of its final five games at home, where it has lost just twice this year, to No. 2 Texas and to rival Michigan. The biggest remaining date is Feb. 26, when Michigan State hosts Purdue in what could be exactly the sort of win to catapult a team from the bubble to the brackets.

The Spartans certainly have the talent.

Perhaps they're not the second-best team in the nation as they were labeled at the year's start, but maybe that was our fault all along. After all, Michigan State should likely have lost in the second round of the tournament last season. Only a swished 3-pointer by a player who hit just 32 percent of his long-range shots last year separated a Final Four run from a second-round defeat.

Yet in 2010, Michigan State came within five against Duke in Cameron in a frenetic affair won only by the outstanding play of Blue Devil freshman Kyrie Irving. The Spartans beat Wisconsin at home and remained competitive with Big Ten top dog Ohio State on the road Wednesday night.

Any team that can hang with the Buckeyes and Blue Devils on the road is talented enough to make it to March.

So what's wrong?

Any vivisection of the still-breathing Spartans probably begins with their turnover problem, but they're not quite as grievous as it's made out to be. Michigan State has actually improved from last season. The Spartans are turning the ball over on 18.8 percent of possessions in conference against 21.6 percent in conference last season. Their overall number (21.3 versus 20.8) is also improved. Neither are the sort of number that would make John Stockton smile, but they're survivable for a team accustomed to being turnover prone.

After all, the Spartans haven't been below a 20 percent turnover rate since 2005.

Everything else, meanwhile, is going to pot.

The team's defense hasn't held an opponent to a sub-100 efficiency rating (fewer than a point per possession) in a month. Wisconsin managed a staggering 151.2 against the usually stingy Spartans. Big Ten teams are shooting 42 percent from behind the arc against Michigan State, worst in the league.

Perhaps more surprisingly for a team that is as institutionally associated with the offensive rebound as the Bronx Bombers are with the home run, they're not in the top 10 in offensive rebounding percentage in the nation for the first time since 2006, which is amplified by the fact their 10th in the league in effective field goal percentage. Even without Allen on the perimeter, they're shooting a higher percentage of 3-pointers than any year in the past decade.

The good news is that there is precedent for a turnaround under Izzo.

Though the Spartans haven't been 6-7 in the Big Ten since the coach's run of six Final Fours in 12 years, they've been close.

In 2007, Michigan State started Big Ten play 6-6. On Valentine's Day 2006, they were 6-5 in the league. In 2002, they were 14-10 overall and 5-6 in the Big Ten. And in 2003, they were 14-11 and 6-6.

And every year, Michigan State made its annual pilgrimage to Bracketville. In 2003, the Spartans even advanced to the Elite Eight.

Each of those rallies speaks to Izzo's ability to bring a team together in February, to convince a struggling squad that it's not out of it no matter the records.

Right now, the Spartans may not be dead. Beginning Saturday against Illinois, it's time to show some signs of life.