Syria -- for Now -- Holds Steady Amid Arab Uprisings

ALEPPO, Syria -- Revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia are inspiring mass protests in Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, Algeria, Iran and Libya, but many Syrians don't expect a similar uprising here.

While admiring what Egyptian citizens were able to accomplish with their revolution this month, many Syrians cite three reasons why their country would be the last domino in the region to fall: lack of a figurehead as a target for revolt, an overwhelming security apparatus and a stable political-economic system.

"Most people are in the middle class," Basem Nabhan, a recent graduate of computer science studies, told AOL News. "Once we have something we can stand for, we will do it. There is no public figure for us to stand against."

Tunisia had Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. Egypt had Hosni Mubarak. Other nations in the region have unpopular rulers and kings who typically have controlled their countries for decades. But in Syria, President Bashar Assad is popular, despite essentially inheriting the post after his father, Hafez, died in 2000.

Much of the younger Assad's popularity derives from his foreign policy, particularly his tough stance toward the United States and Israel. If anything, economic sanctions and constant rebuke from the U.S. have helped him appear as the underdog fighting imperialist outsiders.

Inside the country, many people look upon the 45-year-old Assad, who studied ophthalmology,
as a cautious reformer who has to appease an old guard and a large military.

"The only people who don't like Bashar Assad are the people who want to be in his place," said medical student Abodi Nova. "They're not the people."

That doesn't mean the Syrian government isn't watching other countries and taking steps toward change, however incremental they may be. Other regimes announced stronger measures to placate their populations. The president of Yemen said he would not run in the next elections in 2013. The king of Jordan sacked his prime minister. Bahrain's king offered a one-off stipend to every family in the country.

Syria, for its part, stopped blocking many websites, including thousands of blogs.

When Nova found out his government stopped restricting access to Facebook and YouTube, he immediately thought of his uncle, who recently told him an Arabic proverb: "We're going to pick the fruit of the seed that others planted." Nova's uncle meant that everyone would benefit from the revolution in Egypt, even if Syrians did nothing.

"It's a smart move, because we are grateful to the regime," Nabhan, a friend of Nova's, said of the more liberal Internet policy. "Everyone feels grateful, as if they did something for us."

Yet the loosening of restrictions on websites creates a paradox for Syrians. On the one hand, they are pleased they can access these websites, while on the other hand they feel they are simply entitled to browse the Internet freely because most of the rest of the world can.

Syria has a tightly controlled media and a vast security apparatus. The three largest newspapers are mouthpieces of the regime. The omnipresent mokhabarat, or secret service, listens in to private conversations on the telephone.

Like Egypt, Syria operates under an emergency law. The Syrian version, which began in 1963 -- predating Egypt's law by 18 years -- is often employed for arbitrary detention, which circumvents clauses in the constitution guaranteeing freedom of expression.

Most recently, the 20-year-old activist Almlouhi Tal was sentenced to five years in prison. A high court accused her of divulging information to the U.S., according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. She has a blog with poetry and opinions about Palestinian rights, but has stayed away from Syrian politics.

Young people say they have a little more freedom than their parents' generation did. When Assad came to power, he changed the public school uniforms, for example, from military attire to the standard blue or gray common in private schools in the West. He also has slowly opened up the economy, establishing ties with Turkey that have brought consumer goods and easier travel between the two neighbors.

"Since Bashar took the presidency, we can talk more freely," Nabhan said. "Our parents always taught us not to talk about politics. Now we are more open. Bashar Assad was the best for Syrians."

Some Syrians, however, say that when they have even a critical thought about the regime, they find themselves self-monitoring. Others make vague references to complaints about the system, only to backtrack by defending their country.

Some activists describe Syria as a "Kingdom of Silence." Not surprisingly, few people show up for rallies in Syria. In the first week of February, police broke up candlelight vigils held in solidarity with protesting Egyptians. State-hired thugs also attacked protesters at a recent sit-in, according to one activist.

A community of Syrians living abroad has called for popular protests on the Internet. Their encouragement, however, has deterred some people from participating. That some of their communications are not written in the Syrian dialect has given the appearance that these outsiders are not actually Syrian or are out of touch with people living in the country.

"I don't trust any group of people [to run the country], especially if they live abroad," Nabhan said.

Syria appears appears relatively stable on the labor front. While the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has estimated that Egypt has witnessed 3,000 workers' strikes since 2004, Syria lacks such a formidable labor movement despite suffering from economic disparities.

A handful of figures with close ties to the government control a vast majority of business in Syria. Droughts have pushed farmers into urban areas, and the American-led invasion of Iraq drove a million refugees into the country. But on the streets of Syria's two biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, one hardly gets the impression that the nation is beset by the kind of economic problems troubling Egypt.

While the president's minority Alawi sect holds several prominent positions in government, different groups and religions generally get along, at least on the surface. "I don't think a revolution would accomplish anything," Nabhan said. "Quite the contrary, it could cause a civil war. We've worked hard to get where we are."

Yet given the torrent of popular uprisings that have spread so quickly through the Middle East and North Africa, it is fair to question whether Syria's population might also be a sleeping giant.

On the eve of Mubarak's resignation as Egypt's president, a taxi driver in Damascus, Abdel Selim, wondered aloud why it took so long for Egyptians to depose their dictator.

"Where have they been for 30 years? The people are stronger," he said.

"Sleeping," he was told. "And what about the people of Syria?"

"Sleeping," he said. "With Assad."