New 'Battery' Components: Value of Starting Pitchers on the Move

With pitchers and catchers reporting this week, we should examine the new surroundings for some big-name battery components, and just how the change of scenery might affect their fantasy value.

For Part 1, I've identified 12 pitchers (in various fantasy tiers) who start the 2011 season in new cities -- and for a few, new leagues. Some are almost certain to flourish, making the analysis a tad simpler, while others need a closer look to see if they'll be getting homesick by mid-May. In Part 2, we'll examine catchers.

No-Brainers

1. Cliff Lee (Texas Rangers to Philadelphia Phillies)
Lee makes his triumphant return to the National League and brings his luminary 10.28 K/BB ratio and steadily decreasing FB% with him. While new (and former) Phillies teammate Roy Halladay tops many lists for NL Cy Young candidate, Lee could give him a run -- along with Tim Lincecum and couple other guys (who happen to be on this list).

2. Zack Greinke (Kansas City Royals to Milwaukee Brewers)
Like Cliff the Big Red Lefty, Greinke will be happy to be pitching in the NL on a team that'll give him the run support he needs to flirt with 20 wins and some hardware. In Kansas City, Greinke's high strikeout numbers and low FIP (2.33 in 2009 and 3.34 in 2010) were wasted on a team that just couldn't score runs. In Milwaukee, the young fireballer's fastball/slider combo will return to the 2009 form that won him the Cy Young -- an award that's again within his grasp.

3. Matt Garza (Tampa Bay Rays to Chicago Cubs)
Garza's breakout 2010 campaign was primarily about run support (he won seven more games than 2009 with essentially the same ERA) but improved control and a more effective fastball point to continued success, especially now that he's out of the mash-happy AL East. He's under team control for the next three years but will still be going through the arbitration process. He is scheduled to make $5.95 million this year.

Good Chances

4. Aaron Harang (Cincinnati Reds to San Diego Padres)
Aside from possibly Greinke and Garza, no pitcher in baseball will benefit more from the change of scenery than Harang. Notorious for a proclivity toward the "three true outcomes" (the pitching absolutes of strikeouts, walks and home runs), Harang goes from the umbrella of Dusty Baker's SABR-ignorant regime in the "Great American Bandbox" to the guidance of San Diego manager Bud Black in spacious Petco Park. Consequently, you can expect to see the HR/FB rate decrease and the ERA to drop accordingly.

5. Shaun Marcum (Toronto Blue Jays to Milwaukee Brewers)
Another hurler happy to be out of the AL East is the soft-tossing Marcum -- although the 29-year-old did an excellent job of baffling hitters thanks to an arsenal of six pitches headlined by a dominating changeup (tops in baseball at a 26.9 value; Felix Hernandez was second at 18.7 and Lincecum's ranked third at 16.9) and much-improved control (3.84 K/BB ratio). He may not get as much run support as he did in 2010 from the homer-inclined Jays, but the Brewers are a team that could help him get to 15 or more wins.

6. Javier Vazquez (New York Yankees to Florida Marlins)
Last season, I pleaded with friends, co-workers and sports talk radio hosts to be patient with Vazquez. I argued that he'd eventually overcome his AL struggles and be an effective starter for my beloved Yankees. I no longer have to extol his latent value, as he's already back where he probably belongs -- in the NL East. It's hard to say exactly why Vazquez has trouble finishing off hitters, gets improbably wild, and struggles to keep the ball in the park in the AL, but you can bet his value will rebound significantly now that he's dealing for the Marlins.

Scary Thoughts

7. Felipe Paulino (Houston Astros to Colorado Rockies)
Heading into 2011, Paulino has just a 6-21 Major League record in 47 games (34 starts). A few years ago, this wouldn't bode well for a newcomer to Coors Field, but the rocket-armed fastball/slider beast joins a bevy of flamethrowing youngsters (Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin) who are fast-rising stars in the league. The only problem is that his lefty/righty splits are out of whack for a starting pitcher and/or closer (.331/.420/.561 against lefties; .268/.326/.415 versus righties). If they can't fix him, he could end up in middle relief. Stay tuned.

8. Jon Garland (San Diego Padres to Los Angeles Dodgers)
Garland scared off a few teams with an MRI that revealed an issue with his pitching shoulder, but Ned Colletti -- in his decidedly finite wisdom -- opted to take a shot on the underwhelming righty. Tisk, tisk. Garland takes his unsustainably low .265 BABIP and uncharacteristically high strand rate (75.9%) up the coast from San Diego to LA, where the park is still pitcher-friendly but the luck factor isn't likely to repeat itself. I'm pegging Garland for a sharp decline in 2010, with an ERA in the mid-4s, about 20-25 fewer Ks and only about 10-12 wins.

9. Jeff Francis (Colorado Rockies to Kansas City Royals)
For most soft tossers, a switch to the American League translates to an inflated WHIP and ERA. But Jeff Francis isn't most pitchers -- he's newly minted as a junkballer, he's never pitched for any organization other than the Rockies, and he's had a history of left shoulder issues and surgeries. So what's to like? He was a pretty effective fantasy pitcher in 2007 before the shoulder issues, and last season, despite more shoulder problems, he turned in a few quality starts and finished with a FIP and xFIP under 4.00. While he might not last a full season, he's only 30 and is pitching in what could be the defining season of his career. In fact, it could earn him as much as $4 million if he reaches both 200 innings and 30 starts -- lofty goals indeed. Still, he could be a bargain-bin asset if he stays healthy. Just make sure you wait until it's actually a good deal to grab him.

High-Risk Commodities

10. Miguel Batista (Washington Nationals to St. Louis Cardinals)
While Dave Duncan has worked wonders with aging arms the past few years -- and proved that old dogs can, in fact, learn new tricks -- he's got his hands full with Batista. In 2008, Batista was hell-bent on being a starter or a closer. My favorite Batista quote: "You don't pay a guy $9 million to pitch middle relief." Well, he's been a middle reliever ever since he said that, and last season, he pitched effectively in that role for the Nationals, posting his best WHIP (1.33) and ERA (3.70) since his days with the Diamondbacks back in 2001-03. But those numbers belied more sinister figures -- an unsustainably low .256 BABIP and a 4.78 xFIP that's evidence he was truly getting it done with smoke and mirrors. Unless there's a drastic change in the next month, I doubt Duncan and the Cards are desperate enough to give Batista a shot at the April rotation.

11. Chris Young (San Diego Padres to New York Mets)
Young recently went on record that he expects his arm to hold up this season, and a Wednesday bullpen session resulted in no shoulder discomfort. Alas -- we've been burned by his optimism before. Chances are that you're not the only one hoping to snag Young in the late rounds of a fantasy draft or snag him for a buck at your auction, but if he slips, is he still a good guy to roll the dice on? It's a tough call. While he leaves a great pitcher's park, he's entering a pretty good one, and it's just the kind of place that he needs to thrive, particularly because he's a fly ball pitcher (career 0.54 GB/FB) who doesn't possess outstanding swing-and-miss stuff. But a couple dubious career figures (4.69 xFIP, .251 BABIP) mean that despite getting his face destroyed by a line drive and an incessant parade of shoulder problems, he actually been pretty lucky on the mound.

12. Brandon Webb (Arizona Diamondbacks to Texas Rangers)
Like Young, Brandon Webb said this week that his shoulder's fine and that it's "realistic" he could be ready for Opening Day -- which will mark the two-year anniversary of the last time he's pitched in a major league game. Webb has moved on to the AL, where the grass is greener and the competition is a little more difficult for guys who throw the power sinker. While the effects of pitching in Arlington will be mitigated by his outlandish 3.56 GB/FB rate (tops in baseball over the past 10 years), and Bill James has him going 12-8 with a 3.42 ERA, 142 Ks and a 1.25 WHIP – numbers that will put him among the top AL pitchers – he's still a big injury risk.