Expectations, Optimism High in A's Camp

PHOENIX – Mark Ellis is the senior member of the A's, going so far back with the organization that he shared an infield with a healthy Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada, playing behind the Big Three of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito.

Ellis arrived midway through the A's eight-year streak of winning baseball, and he has endured the subsequent four-year playoff drought.

That makes Ellis an authority when it comes to judging the spring training vibe around the A's.

"This year is different, absolutely," Ellis said Monday, the day of the club's first full-squad workout of the spring. "This is as optimistic as I've been in spring training the past couple years. It's exciting. If you look around, we are as good as anyone in our division, and that's something we maybe haven't been able to say the past couple years."

Oh, any team can say that in February. Convincing others is something else.

Before a single pitch of the Cactus League season, let alone the real season, the A's have already convinced many around baseball that they are on the way back to contention. Like the retooled Brewers in the NL, the A's are a chic pick to reach the playoffs.

"I think we finished on a high note last year, and because of that there is a sense that we can improve on that and narrow the gap between us and Texas," said general manager Billy Beane, diplomatically adding that the Rangers are still "the team to beat."

The Rangers won the division with 90 victories last season, while the A's finished 81-81, snapping a three-year streak of finishing under .500. The Rangers lost Cliff Lee and Vladimir Guerrero and they may also trade Michael Young, while they've added Adrian Beltre and highly questionable Brandon Webb. On balance, it seems tough to make the case that the Rangers are better than they were in 2010.

The A's are definitely better. The only question is how much.

They replaced one-third of their lineup, and it just happens to be the most important one-third. Their likely Opening Day lineup will have newcomers David DeJesus, Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui batting in the 3-4-5 spots.

That's not exactly Carl Crawford-Adrian Gonzalez-Kevin Youkilis, but it's a dramatic improvement nonetheless.

As we pointed out back in December, if DeJesus, Willingham and Matsui simply repeated their 2010 seasons, they'd improve the A's OPS at their three positions by an average of 141 points. The OPS gap from top to bottom among all major league regulars last season, from Josh Hamilton to Cesar Izturis, was 499 points last year, so anything that moves you up one-third through that range is pretty significant.

But the A's are also hoping that the addition of new middle-of-the-order hitters will improve the players around them.

Take Kurt Suzuki. He's a very nice catcher to have around. He's athletic (can you do this?) and knows how to handle a pitching staff. He's got a little bit of pop (15 and 13 homers each of the past two years). Suzuki is a nice enough piece that the A's signed him to a three-year, $15.65 million deal.

Suzuki is not, however, a middle-of-the-order hitter.

The A's, with no one any better, put Suzuki third, fourth or fifth regularly last year. The single entry on the lineup card -- 4. Suzuki, C – screamed that this was a team with offensive problems. Now, Suzuki can be what he ought to be, which is a good defensive catcher who hits pretty well for a No. 6 or No. 7 hitter.

The same could be said of third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Ellis.

"Most of the guys we had in those (middle-of-the-order) spots were probably not the guys who should be hitting there, and they would tell you the same thing," Beane said.

Ellis, who hit third, fifth or sixth in half of his games last year, agreed.

"There are good players here," he said, "That's never been a question, but when you ask guys to do something they can't do, they aren't going to be as good. Just let everybody do what they are capable of doing, and they will be fine, but you have to have someone in the middle of the lineup who can hit home runs and drive in runs."

DeJesus isn't much of a power threat, but he's a career .289 hitter. Willingham and Matsui have each hit more than 20 homers at least three times in the past five years. By contrast, the A's have produced exactly two 20-homer seasons over the past three years, both by Jack Cust. No one hit more than 16 last year. That's part of the reason that they ranked 11th in the AL in runs.

"Expectations are good. It's never bad to have expectations. We like our team. There is no doubt about it."
- Mark Ellis The A's still managed to finish at .500 only because of a talented, deep, young pitching staff that led the league in ERA. Everyone returns from that staff except for No. 5 starter Vin Mazzaro, and the bullpen, led by two-time All-Star Andrew Bailey, has been bolstered by the additions of Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes.

Take an 81-win team and improve one-third of the lineup, add to key bullpen pieces and return the top four of the starting rotation and you get something they haven't had much recently at A's spring training.

"Expectations are good," Ellis said. "It's never bad to have expectations. We like our team. There is no doubt about it."