Scientists: A Solar Storm Could Have the Power of Katrina

Worsening solar storms could shut down telecommunications, ground airline service and even lead to global blackouts, scientists and government officials warned in Washington, D.C.

People need to be aware of the dire consequences a massive solar storm could have on the global infrastructure, Helena Lindberg of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency said at a panel discussion at the American Association for the Advancement of Science's annual meeting this weekend.

"I'm not talking about days or weeks, but several months without electric power, blackouts, across large regions of Europe and the U.S.," she said.

Scientists have been warning for several years that the Earth is entering a new solar cycle characterized by more intense and frequent solar storms, where the sun releases large bursts of electrified gasses. Those storms can disrupt satellites, including the Global Positioning System; fry electronic devices; and even disrupt the electricity grid.

Though such variations in the sun's cycle are normal, the world is increasing reliant on electronic devices, which are particularly vulnerable to interruption during such solar storms.

Lindberg pointed to the effects of other natural disasters, such as the 2004 tsunami that hit South Asia and Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2005. She warned that a massive solar storm could disrupt the flow of essential goods and services.

"To my mind, there are few emergencies today that require such a close cooperation across the Atlantic as that of the geomagnetic storm," Lindberg said.

In fact, increasing solar storms are already having an impact on Earth, said Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, speaking at the same event. Lubchenco noted that some airlines were rerouted away from the poles last week to avoid the possibility of being affected by solar storms.

Unlike during previous solar cycles, the world now is particularly vulnerable to disruption, Lubchenco warned. "The last time we had a maximum in the solar cycle about 10 years ago, the world was a very different place," she said, noting the increase in airline traffic and the reliance on devices such as cell phones.

Many of the effects of space weather are similar to the impact that a man-made electromagnetic pulse, created by a nuclear explosion, could have on satellites and electronic devices. Those effects, however, would be localized, whereas a solar storm could affect the entire planet.

While telling the audience to "not panic," Stephan Lechner, director of the European Commission Joint Research Center, said the full breadth of the impact a massive solar storm could have on communications and services is not fully understood because it's not always clear how dependent specific industries such as telecommunications are on GPS.

But he said the goal should be to take measures now to ensure that there is no disruption, because if protective steps aren't taken, the communications and electronic infrastructure could be severely disrupted, he said.

John Beddington, the U.K. government's chief scientific adviser, said at the conference that the threat of solar storms was not yet on the British government's national risk register, which assesses possible serious emergencies, "but it should be."

The current solar cycle is expected to reach its peak in 2025.