Scouting Combine Quite Often Yields as Many Questions as Answers

So here was Blaine Gabbert sitting in a room in an "event'' staged by ESPN being "coached'' for the NFL Scouting Combine by Terry Shea, an ex-NFL assistant and one-time head coach at Rutgers on how to "interview'' for teams in Indianapolis.

"What would you say to team that tells you it won't take you?'' Shea asked in his "role'' as an NFL interviewer -- a GM, a coach or a personnel guy.

"That I'll beat your butt for the next 15 years,'' Gabbert replied, told, of course, that it was the correct answer to demonstrate his "competitiveness.''

ESPN was conducting its own reality show.

But it's not the reality that NFL people like very much. Because, quite frankly, as many GMs and coaches point out, "rehearsals'' like the one Shea was running on behalf of Gabbert's agents -- or "handlers'' -- are a lot like rehearsals for theatrical performances. And theatrical performances, as those GMs, coaches and personnel people know, aren't at all real.

NFL people have known for more than a decade that the value of the combine has diminished even as it has become a "must-see, must-attend'' event. But even savvy media members, who have turned out in increasing numbers over that time, concede that they're not really getting any more information about who will succeed or fail than they would by staying home. They're attending, they say, because the combine is basically the only time they can get pre-draft access to those general managers, coaches and personnel people who increasingly decline to say anything substantive -- or anything at all in some cases -- about the upcoming draft.

"There's value to it in the interviews sometimes,'' says Gil Brandt, who ran the Cowboys' personnel operation from 1960-89 and now is a consultant to the NFL. "But it can't tell you the most important thing -- how a talented player will react when he becomes a millionaire. You can see the talent on the football field. What you often can't see is what's in a player's head.''

There will be a lot of information coming out of the combine this week. Enjoy. But realize that it's as much fiction as fact.
Let's take Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who led Auburn to a national championship. Like Tim Tebow, whom he once backed up at Florida, everything about him has been or will be scrutinized -- his delivery, his field sense, his leadership and his honesty, already questioned by allegations that his father solicited money to steer him to a college after he left Florida.

Yet unlike Gabbert, who is considered right now the top prospect in a so-so quarterback class, we at least know something about Newton based on a statement reported this week by Sports Illustrated's Peter King.

"I see myself not only as a football player, but an entertainer and icon,'' Newton told King, demonstrating in 13 words that he has as much the personality of a diva wide receiver as that of a quarterback. That's probably a negative for a lot of coaches, but it might be more honest than they'll get other players who have been "coached'' what to say.

Those coaches have long since stopped ranking players on things like 40-yard dash times, or lifts or vertical jumps, using them primarily to identify the athletic ability of lower-round prospects, especially those from small schools. And even those small-school guys have been evaluated in postseason all-star games, where scouts want to see if they are competitive against the big-school players after dominating at the lower level.

The higher-ranked guys?

Many don't even work out in Indianapolis, preferring to show their wares at carefully orchestrated "Pro Days'' at their own schools with their own receivers and their own coaches. Newton already held one, open only -- characteristically -- to the "media," which included, of course, ex-players or self-styled scouts who run highly popular draft "tout'' sheets.

It was rated a success, whatever that means.

The skepticism is often referred to as "The Mike Mamula Syndrome,'' after the former Boston College linebacker whose workouts in 1995 were so impressive that they moved him up from the second or third round to No. 9 overall, where he was taken after the Eagles traded up to get him.

Mamula is largely considered a classic "bust,'' although he really wasn't -- injured a lot, he had 31½ sacks in six seasons as an undersized defensive end, about what you'd have expected if he'd been drafted where he was supposed to be.

The lesson was simple: evaluate their play and (as best you can) their mindsets, not necessarily on how they run and jump in shorts and t-shirts.

But nothing is guaranteed and teams that sometimes outthink themselves.

In 2008, for example, Mario Manningham was considered a potential first-round pick after a standout career at Michigan. But he scored extremely low at the combine on the standardized Wonderlic test, which is supposed to rate intelligence; one reason he slipped to late in the third round, drafted 95th overall by the New York Giants, the 15th receiver taken. "Big gamble,'' said the instant draft graders? (At No. 95?)

Yes, it took Manningham a year to learn. But after just four catches as a rookie, he had 57 in 2009 and 60 last year for a 15.7 average and nine touchdowns -- as the Giants' third wideout. Pretty good gamble considering that late in the season, after injuries decimated that position, the Giants picked up the second receiver taken that year, Devin Thomas, who'd been cut by Washington. (Why the draft is unpredictable: DeSean Jackson of the Eagles was 49th overall, the seventh receiver chosen, presumably because he weighed in at about 150 pounds at the combine.)

Then there's the other side of the coin.

Last season, New England had the best regular season record in the NFL at 14-2 although the Patriots lost to the Jets in their first playoff game. They also led the league in "players not invited to the combine,'' according to a note on Wednesday from Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com, an expert on all things Patriots: wide receivers Wes Welker and Julian Edelman, running back Danny Woodhead and offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer.

Vollmer, a native of Germany who played at Houston, was a second-round draft pick in 2009 and made second-team All-Pro in voting by the Associated Press this year.

In other words, there will be a lot of information coming out of the combine this week. Enjoy. But realize that it's as much fiction as fact.

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