Government Shutdown 2011: What Are the Odds?

Place your bets.

With the deadline for a shutdown of the federal government looming, several observers are weighing in on the likelihood of what could prove a costly impasse between congressional Republicans and Democrats.

Surge Desk has detailed five immediate consequences of a government shutdown, and also asked you for your opinion on whether Washington will come to a grinding halt on March 4. Now we're sampling the pulse of lawmakers, economists and even the oddsmakers as to just how likely the shutdown is. Here's what we've found.

No strangers to the battle between the nation's political parties, Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind and Rep. Tim Walz of Minnesota, both Democrats, said Thursday that the chances were 50-50 for a shutdown, the LaCrosse Tribune reported.

"I think the odds are at least even," Walz told reporters.

That happens to be the same conclusion that liberal columnist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman came to back in October. "I put 50 percent on a government shutdown sometime in the next two years," Krugman told an audience, according to The Hill.

Sponsored Links

House Speaker John Boehner, a man whose actions will play a major part in determining whether there will be a shutdown, has been softening rhetoric that some had pointed to as a sign that the chances of the federal meltdown were rising. With Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Barack Obama all engaged in a game of high-stakes chicken, however, it's unwise to be overly optimistic by what any of these men have to say on a moment-by-moment basis.

Perhaps the least biased place to go for an assessment of the odds of a government shutdown is out on the free market. Currently, the bet-on-anything firm Intrade is saying that there's a 35 percent chance of a shutdown come next week.

More coverage from Surge Desk:
5 Immediate Consequences of a Government Shutdown
Government Shutdown: Do You Think It Will Happen? [POLL]

Follow Surge Desk on Twitter.