Farewell Predictions and Advice for 2011 Fantasy Baseball Season

Thank you wholeheartedly to all readers of Fantasy FanHouse over the years. Interacting with you in our chats and on comment boards has always been one of my favorite parts of managing the section. Another big one was getting to work with such talented fantasy sports writers. I really hope that all of you will continue to follow their work in their next stops on the 'net.

We'll go out the best way possible: predictions and more advice for the 2011 fantasy baseball season from R.J. White and Knox Bardeen.

Kick butt in your drafts this year!

-- Tom Herrera

Give me five bold predictions for the 2011 fantasy baseball season.

R.J. White: Tommy Hanson becomes a top five SP in 2011. He has the pedigree, being one of the minor's top prospects before bursting onto the fantasy scene. He also has the skill to back this prediction up. Those taking Hanson as a second starter will be getting a Cy Young candidate.

• Daniel Hudson is the real deal. In my points league, Hudson's 2010 campaign ranked him third overall in points per inning, behind just Roy Halladay and Adam Wainwright. He's not a top-five pitcher, but he's certainly good enough to crack the top 20 this year, and dynasty league owners should be drooling over him.

• Tsuyoshi Nishioka will hit over .300 in his first run in the major leagues. Remember, Ichiro Suzuki needed no adjustment period to the majors, hitting .350 with 56 SBs and eight HRs in 2001, his first year in America. Tsuyoshi is no Ichiro, but the Japan League batting title winner isn't far enough behind his trailblazing counterpart to think the move will be anything but successful.

• Jed Lowrie is a top-ten shortstop. Lowrie proved in limited at-bats last season that he's far superior to Marco Scutaro at the plate, and for a Red Sox team that plans on bludgeoning opponents with a killer offense, swinging a big stick is a must. If Lowrie logs starter's minutes quickly, he'll cash in on a sweet second half and post a .280 average and 20-25 HRs.

• Jose Bautista will hit 45 HRs this season. People call Bautista's 2010 campaign an aberration and say he's expected to regress. Could it be that our expectations were wrong in the first place? He didn't get regular playing time until September of 2009, and he delivered 10 HRs in 109 at-bats from September 1 on. We now have a full season of data saying he can keep that pace up.

Knox Bardeen: Dan Uggla will leapfrog Robinson Cano to become the most valuable second basemen in fantasy baseball. Hitting in Florida, Uggla averaged .261 and launched a home run once every 21.52 plate appearances. At Turner Field his average is .354 with a home run in every 16.58 plate appearances.

• The once sought-after Chone Figgins will continue his fall from fantasy relevance as he withers away in Seattle. His speed is still apparent, but no longer will Figgins score enough runs to warrant a spot in the top 100 fantasy draft selections.

• Look for Mets first baseman Ike Davis to become a top-10 fantasy option at his position. His rookie season was admirable, but this sophomore slugger packs a lot of punch in his swing and should increase not only his power numbers, but also his batting average.

• No one outproduced CC Sabathia in the Wins column in fantasy baseball leagues last season (Roy Halladay did tie him with 21 wins), but in 2011 at least 10 pitchers will. Even if you forget about his declining strikeout rate and his rising walk rate, you cannot forget that the Yankees are not as strong as they were last season. Factor those things in with his rising home rate as well and I can see Sabathia falling off in 2011.

• Don't count on Dan Haren to strike out 200 batters in 2011. He's done so in each of the past three seasons, but for the most part (he was traded and made 14 starts for the Angels last year) he's been pitching in the National League. Upon his trade last year, his strikeout rate dropped 20 percent. Look at his time in Oakland and you'll see he never surpassed 200 strikeouts.

Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez?

R.J. White: Hanley is incredible, but I just can't see passing on Pujols with the first pick. He's guaranteed to post elite numbers in four categories while chipping in surprising steal numbers as well (30 over the last two seasons). Ramirez is a liability in RBIs and has seen his run total also plummet in recent years. I can't see sacrificing Pujols' power numbers just to add a few more steals -- those can be found later in the draft and on the wire in most leagues. Couple it with the fact that as many seven first basemen will be off the board by the time the No. 1 team gets its second pick, and Pujols is the easy selection.

Knox Bardeen: Both are incredible talents, but Pujols is the best hitter in the game. And while Ramirez has seen three-year drops in home runs and runs scored, Pujols is still the model of efficiency and strength.

Most overrated draft pick this year?

R.J. White: What has Elvis Andrus accomplished that makes him a top-100 player? He's stolen just over 30 bases in each of the last two seasons while hitting in the .260s. If that's not enough, he couldn't even manage one home run in 2010. Yet owners are jumping on him earlier and earlier -- he went in the fourth round of our 15-team Fantasy Baseball Cafe draft, which placed him as the 51st pick overall. He's a drain on HR and RBI numbers and doesn't post an average high enough to make up for it. No thank you, sir.

Knox Bardeen: I truly believe Evan Longoria is a tremendous hitter; however, he should not be drafted at the top of the draft. Longoria's power numbers dropped 33.4 percent from 2009 to 2010. While the rest of his fantasy stat numbers climbed, I'd be too worried to grab Longoria with one of the first few picks in the draft. I'm not even sure if you made me take a third baseman in the draft that Longoria would be my first selection.

Most underrated pick this year?

R.J. White: Jake Peavy has been largely ignored in drafts thanks to a shoulder injury, but he's progressing faster than expected and should be ready for game action in April. He's already shown the ability to be a fantasy ace when healthy, and owners should be ecstatic they can add a guy with so much upside late in the draft. I can see Peavy making 25-30 starts, posting 12 wins, an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP under 1.20. Seems reasonable, right?

Knox Bardeen: It's hard for me to even breathe these words, but Jonathan Papelbon is being overlooked in fantasy drafts right now. Worries about his contract status and tenure with the Red Sox are pushing people to grab relief pitchers like Heath Bell and Carlos Marmol ahead of Paps. That's just silly.

Who is your deep sleeper that will pay big dividends?

R.J. White: Jordan Zimmermann hasn't had much time to show his stuff in the majors. He lit up the league in 2009 before needing Tommy John surgery, and he returned late in 2010 to post another solid line. With Stephen Strasburg out for the season the Nationals will be relying on Zimmermann's young arm more than ever, and he should be up to the task. I can see him carving out 10 wins, a 3.80 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP to go with 170 Ks in 175 innings.

Knox Bardeen: Joe Nathan has an average draft position of 254.75. He's progressing nicely in his comeback attempt and could quite possibly be ready by opening day. If that's the case, Nathan could be a top-five closer. What a steal that would be.

R.J. White: Readers, thanks for taking the time to indulge our sports geekdom on a regular basis and for bringing your A-game each week to our chats. You can read more of my material at the Fantasy Baseball Cafe and Fantasy Football Cafe, and I'll be contributing to Razzball and FanDuel soon. Thanks to Tom Herrera and FanHouse for giving me the opportunity to work with some wonderfully talented people here, and I wish all of them the best in their future endeavors.

Knox Bardeen: When Tom Herrera sent me a note a little more than two years ago and asked me if I wanted to bring my fantasy baseball knowledge to FanHouse, I didn't comprehend the opportunity he was offering me. In those two years I've corresponded with tens of 1,000's of fantasy baseball zealots, argued with some fantastic fantasy minds, talked about fantasy sports on the radio, in the press box, in clubhouses, and met a few of these players we're all trying to project. All of that is because of Tom, FanHouse, and all of you readers asking me as many questions as you have. Without all three of you, I would never have gotten to have so much fun. Thank you all so much and I will truly miss working here at FanHouse, with these special people and for you knowledgeable readers. I'm not sure where the future is taking me, but you'll always be able to find me on Twitter @knoxbardeen.