According to a survey from Public Policy Polling, Wisconsin voters say in a hypothetical rematch they would now vote for defeated Democratic nominee Tom Barrett over Walker by a 52-45 margin.
Walker beat Barrett by roughly that same margin in November.
PPP says the shift can almost entirely be attributed to union affiliation, a demographic that Walker may have expected he would mildly alienate when he began putting efforts in motion to strip state workers of collective bargaining rights.
According to the PPP blog:
And it's mostly Republicans who are shifting their support. Roughly 10 percent of GOP members now say they would vote for Barrett, up from the 3 percent of Republican voters who actually supported him over the Democrat in November.
Voters who are not part of union households have barely shifted at all -- they report having voted for Walker by 7 points last fall and they still say they would vote for Walker by a 4 point margin. But in households where there is a union member voters now say they'd go for Barrett by a 31 point margin, up quite a bit from the 14 point advantage they report having given him in November.
All in all, PPP says this could spell trouble for Republicans hoping to build on the 2010 victories in Wisconsin.
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