Opinion: There's No Silver Bullet for High Gas Prices

American motorists can't be blamed for viewing the current jump in gasoline prices as a potential precursor to even bigger problems down the road. Major oil disruptions in the Middle East have historically led to higher inflation, unsustainable negative balances of trade and recessions -- all in addition to the aggravation of paying more to fill up the tank. If we don't worry about interruptions in oil deliveries, we're suffering from historical amnesia.

The loss of oil supplies from Libya so far, however, amounts to only about 1 percent of world oil production. Such shortages can generally be handled by oil markets without intervention by governments who own significant oil supplies set aside for emergencies -- the United States, Europe and Japan. By contrast, the major interruptions well chronicled in our energy history -- the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo, the 1978-79 Iranian revolution and the 1990-91 Persian Gulf war -- led to losses of 7 percent or more of global oil production.

The current jump in prices seems based on fears that supplies could be interrupted in additional countries. But the crude oil in government stockpiles (well over 700 million barrels in the United States alone) can handle most scenarios, short of the unlikely event of the loss of oil from Saudi Arabia. So the current panic over oil rests more on market psychology than physical shortages.

The best course for protecting consumers includes closely monitoring the short-term situation in case it spins out of control and continuing a long-term strategy of reducing dependence on foreign oil to cushion the impact of future oil shocks. Though many are reluctant to admit it, we've been on the right path the past few years.

President George W. Bush increased the holdings of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during his terms in office. Oil companies have invested heavily and utilized advanced technologies to nudge up domestic production after years of decline. In the face of high prices, drivers are making better decisions about the vehicles they buy and the way they use them. Both the Congress in 2007 and President Barack Obama since taking office deserve credit for getting the federal fuel efficiency requirements back on track after two decades of neglect.

We have made major progress in the past reducing dependence on foreign oil, only to squander the victory when prices declined. From 1977 to 1982, the United States cut its oil imports in half. But when the price of oil crashed in the mid-1980s, energy complacency and waste returned, paving the way for Libya and the other members of OPEC to eventually regain control of the world oil market.

We need to continue the recent momentum toward greater vehicle efficiency pretty much in perpetuity. Even if we do so, the United States no longer has the ability to influence the global oil market the way it once did. But if we reduce energy waste here, we will become part of a broader international solution and assume a stronger position for engaging emerging oil consumers like China whose support we need.

There is no silver bullet for eliminating the risks of widely gyrating oil prices and dependence on foreign oil, but prudent policies can soften the blow for now and the future.

Jay Hakes is former head of the Energy Information Administration and author of "A Declaration of Energy Independence" (2008).