Who Would Be Willing to Give Moammar Gadhafi Exile?

Few world leaders are rushing to Col. Moammar Gadhafi's aid right now, as coalition air strikes pound Libya and leave Gadhafi -- the world's longest-serving leader -- increasingly isolated. But is there any country out there willing to grant him refuge?

That's one question the Libyan dictator may be asking himself as rebel forces advance ever closer to his Tripoli hideout. The topic could also come up today in London, where delegates from more than 40 governments and international organizations are meeting to map out Libya's future -- without Gadhafi. The group includes U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and other Arab, African and European leaders.

President Barack Obama and others insist Gadhafi should be brought to trial, and the International Criminal Court has said it is investigating war crimes charges against him. But Italy's foreign minister suggested Monday that Gadhafi might agree to end the violence in Libya if he's offered safe haven elsewhere -- outside the ICC's reach. The Italian proposal calls for a quick cease-fire, peace talks with rebels and exile for Gadhafi.

But where could he go?

"You obviously need a country that doesn't accept jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court," Charles Gurdon, a Libya expert who runs the London political risk consultancy Menas Associates, told AOL News.

Nearly 150 countries have joined the court or ratified the treaty that established it in 2002. That includes nearly all of Europe and Latin America, and about half of Africa. Three countries -- Israel, Sudan and the United States -- ratified it but then reversed themselves. Another 45 United Nations member states, including China and India, have no relationship with the ICC. That means they're not obliged to carry out arrest warrants and other orders the court hands down.

"Certainly an ally of Gadhafi would be Zimbabwe, and he might also look at Niger or Mali -- both are possibilities in Africa," Gurdon said. "If it were outside Africa, Venezuela is a possibility -- [Venezuelan President Hugo] Chavez and Gadhafi get along well. The other possibility is somewhere like Belarus, but I imagine he might not want to go there."

Here's a rundown on possibilities for Gadhafi's next home:

Sudan
Gadhafi might look at the example of a fellow North African autocrat, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, the only sitting head of state ever to be indicted by the ICC. Arrest warrants were issued for al-Bashir in 2009 and 2010, on charges of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Darfur. But he remains in power and has been able to travel to some other countries that aren't ICC signatories.

"Provided he stays in Sudan, he's safe. But if he ever ended up in Europe, then the countries which accept the ICC would be obliged to arrest the president of Sudan," Gurdon said. "The same situation will apply to Gadhafi if he goes into exile."

Sudan initially signed the treaty that established the ICC, but has not yet ratified it -- and isn't expected to.

Mali or Niger
Both Mali and Niger have ratified the ICC treaty and are bound to abide by the court's orders. But they both also have a long history of friendship with Gadhafi. Libya brokered negotiations and a 2009 peace deal to end Niger's portion of a rebellion by Tuareg tribesmen, which had embroiled northern regions of Niger and Mali for years.

Some of the foreign mercenaries shipped to Libya to boost Gadhafi's security forces in the opening days of rebel uprisings last month are believed to hail from these countries. Both nations are poor and blighted by corruption, and any money that changes hands in exchange for Gadhafi's safe passage could be attractive to these countries' leaders.

Belarus
During the Cold War, Gadhafi's rare mix of socialism and Arab nationalism drew investment from the Soviet Union, and some of that relationship is still strong in the former Soviet state of Belarus. The country is believed to be arming Gadhafi's forces, using flights back and forth between Tripoli and a Belorussian military base in Baranovichi. Also, Gadhafi's sons have traveled there for military training.

Gadhafi claims the title of Africa's longest-serving leader, but Belarus is known to be the home of Europe's last dictator. Under Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994, Belarus has seen rigged elections and repression of political opponents -- features of government that Gadhafi can relate to as well.

Belarus is not an ICC member or signatory, another plus for Gadhafi.

Venezuela
Gadhafi and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez are great friends, and probably the two most outspoken leaders of anti-imperialism against the West and the U.S. in particular. There's a soccer stadium near Benghazi named after Chavez, and Gadhafi has a replica of the Venezuelan revolutionary hero Simon Bolivar's honored sword -- a gift from Chavez. In 2004, the Venezuelan president received Libya's so-called Gadhafi International Prize for Human Rights.

They're both former army colonels who conspired against the governments they once served, and both are powerful within OPEC, the group of oil-producing countries. Together, they proposed a South Atlantic Treaty Organization to rival NATO. Gadhafi has also funded and supported FARC, the Marxist guerrilla group based in Colombia, which has also received tacit support from Chavez.

But Venezuela too is an ICC signatory, and it's unclear how Chavez could avoid his obligations to turn over Gadhafi if his old friend lands on Latin American soil.

Saudi Arabia
The kingdom is known to open its doors to former dictators -- Uganda's infamous Idi Amin, or Tunisia's recently deposed Zine El Abidine Ben Ali -- but Saudi Arabia isn't likely to offer such sanctuary to Gadhafi.

"The primary reason is that there's a sort of pathological hatred between [Saudi Arabian] King Abdullah and Gadhafi," Gurdon said. "Libyan agents tried to assassinate King Abdullah in the past, and they have also argued very strongly in public at Arab League meetings."

The title that Gadhafi bestowed upon himself at a 2009 coronation ceremony in Ethiopia -- "King of Kings of Africa" -- apparently offended the Saudi king, who apparently considers his royal lineage more legitimate. At an Arab League ceremony later that year, Gadhafi took his penchant for self-superlatives even further, dubbing himself "leader of the Arab leaders" and "imam of the Muslims" before the Saudi Arabian delegation stormed out of the room.

Saudi Arabia is not an ICC signatory -- something that other dictators shopping around for exile have found attractive in the past. But Gadhafi's tiffs with the Saudi king mean he probably won't get an invitation to visit the Muslim holy cities anytime soon. "It's a nonstarter," Gurdon said.

Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe's longtime leader, Robert Mugabe, is a fellow aging African revolutionary who like Gadhafi has crusaded against Western influence and colonialism. While Gadhafi has made few friends in the Middle East, as evidenced by the Arab League's endorsement of the U.N. resolution authorizing a no-fly zone over Libya, he has cultivated friendships with sub-Saharan African leaders like Mugabe.

Gadhafi's family is believed to hold substantial investments in Zimbabwe, and members of that country's military, in plainclothes, are rumored to have taken part in attacks on rebels in eastern Libya last month.

Zimbabwe has signed the ICC treaty but not ratified it yet.

Italy
Last year, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi kissed Gadhafi's hand on arrival in Italy -- a gesture of honor usually reserved for the pope. And in the early days of Libya's rebellion last month, Berlusconi was the lone Western leader to stick up for Gadhafi, calling him a wise man he admired. Last week the Italian premier -- mired in sex scandals -- boasted that he could talk Gadhafi into leaving Libya.

"I can convince him to go into exile," Berlusconi said, offering to travel to Tripoli himself. It was also Italy's foreign minister, Franco Frattini, who fielded the idea of Gadhafi's exile on Monday -- though it's clear he was probably not talking about his home country.

"Gadhafi must understand that it would be an act of courage to say, 'I understand that I have to go,' " Frattini told The Guardian. "We hope that the African Union can find a valid proposal."

Gadhafi was born in Italian-controlled Libya and still speaks some Italian. He's also rumored to own property in Italy. But Gurdon said he still thinks it's unlikely that the Libyan leader will head to Italy.

"Although Berlusconi has been friends with Gadhafi in the past, Berlusconi's power is now weakening. At the same time, their relationship is an embarrassment to many Italians," Gurdon said. "I believe he [Gadhafi] has property in Italy, and it's possible that he could have retired there before the crisis began. I don't think it's possible now."

Italy, like all of Europe, has signed the ICC treaty and would be required to extradite Gadhafi for prosecution.