Can African Union Succeed in Libya Where US, Others Failed?

Already juggling some of the world's most bloody conflicts and dire health crises, the African Union is now taking on what Washington, Europe and the Arab states have so far failed at -- trying to achieve peace in Libya.

That's a tall task for the barely 9-year-old African Union, a loose organization of African delegates that's notorious for in-fighting, under-equipping its troops and peacekeepers and having more than a few corrupt dictators within its ranks. But all others have so far failed, including former GOP congressman Curt Weldon, who flew to Tripoli last week, boasting of his ability to get Gadhafi to step down. The Libyan leader refused to meet him, and Weldon left disgruntled after three days.

For the African Union, the biggest challenge in Libya is simply not to take sides. After all, it was Moammar Gadhafi who first suggested the idea of a "United States of Africa," upon which the AU is loosely modeled. A year after crowning himself "King of Kings of Africa," Gadhafi was elected as chairman of the AU in 2009 and served one year. The AU's current leader is Equatorial Guinea's president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who's ruled his nation for more than 30 years -- about three-quarters as long as Gadhafi.

"Gadhafi is an important player within the AU, and certainly among the smaller Sahel countries that he's given quite a lot of money to," Charles Gurdon, a Libya expert who runs the London political risk consultancy Menas Associates, told AOL News.

Not only has Gadhafi given money to the African countries that are now acting as possible peace brokers; he's also literally incorporated them into his military. African mercenaries are believed to be fighting in Gadhafi's ranks, bolstering his small but brutal security force.

"There's significant evidence that there have been African mercenaries, and also Africans who've been press-ganged into the Libyan army. They are being used by the regime," Gurdon said. "So obviously the relationship between the AU and the regime is pretty complex."

None of that goes down well in eastern Libya, where African Union officials are heading today to push their so-called "road map" for a Libyan cease-fire. The plan calls for an immediate halt to fighting and negotiations, but doesn't specify that Gadhafi must go -- something that's long been a non-negotiable aim for eastern rebels. Their calls for Gadhafi's ouster have also won support in Washington.

And rebel leaders rejected the proposal today for that reason, according to The Associated Press. "The initiative that was presented today, its time has past," said former Libyan Justice Minister Mustafa Abdel-Jalil. "We will not negotiate on the blood of our martyrs."

Representing the African Union mission in Libya are South African President Jacob Zuma, along with the heads of Mali and Mauritania -- two Gadhafi allies. Zuma announced Sunday that Gadhafi has apparently agreed to the African Union plan, referring to him repeatedly as "brother leader."

Gadhafi's close relationship with the African Union could make it difficult for the group to be an honest peace broker in Libya. Or it could mean just the opposite: that the union has a better shot at fixing Libya's troubles, because of previous experience and familiarity with the eccentric Libyan leader.

Both African and Arab, Gadhafi has long fostered stronger friendships with fellow African leaders than with his Arab counterparts. He berated the Saudi king publicly at a 2007 Arab League meeting, and has instead trained and armed African fighters from across the continent.

Those relationships became clear when eastern rebels rose up against Gadhafi's regime earlier this year: The Arab League backed a U.N. resolution to establish a no-fly zone and use force against Gadhafi, while the African Union is now offering a peace deal that could keep Gadhafi in power.

"I think they're trying to find an African solution, and I think they're honest brokers," Gurdon said of the efforts by the group's officials over the weekend in Tripoli. "But I think that the idea that Gadhafi could remain in the country is probably still unacceptable to the opposition."

Anti-government forces in Libya have long called for Gadhafi's removal, as well as that of his sons. Washington and European leaders have backed those calls. They have also acknowledged that Gadhafi's regime has called a few cease-fires before, and always broken them. So the African Union's plan is unlikely to find real support in Western capitals, either.

Italy's foreign minister, Franco Frattini, said today that even Gadhafi's sons are not acceptable "in the political future of Libya." Two of Gadhafi's sons floated a secret peace plan last week under which they agreed to push out their father in exchange for putting Seif al-Islam, Gadhafi's second son, in charge of a transition to democracy. The plan got a lukewarm response in Western capitals and condemnation among eastern rebels.

"The West doesn't want Gadhafi in power. So while there is talk of a solution and about protection of civilians, the reality is that very few leaders in Europe or the West want Gadhafi to remain in power," Gurdon said. "The difference is that the African Union would be prepared to accept Gadhafi remaining in power. That's the real issue."