Blood and Bluster on Iran-Pakistan Border

Iran is preparing its next dodge to defend its nuclear program; Pakistan is waging war on a Taliban faction in the wild frontier territory of South Waziristan. So it seemed wise for both countries to climb down today from conflict with each other. But it's an open question how long such prudence will last in another dangerous corner of the Muslim world.

The tension eased for now after Pakistan released 11 Iranian soldiers it had nabbed with considerable fanfare a day earlier. The troops, which Pakistan originally claimed were led by officers of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, crossed over the poorly demarcated border that separates Iran from Pakistan and runs through the middle of the fractious territory of Baluchistan.

Iran claimed that its troops had crossed the border Monday while in hot pursuit of drug traffickers, and Pakistani officials said the Iranian soldiers were arrested after they had shot out the tires of several carloads of smugglers. But many have expressed doubts that the Iranians would have entered Pakistan if a Baluchi terrorist had not blown himself up in the Iranian town of Pishin on Oct. 18, killing five Revolutionary Guard officers and 37 others.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had vowed quick retaliation for that attack, for which the Sunni militant group Jundallah claimed responsibility. It was the second time the Sunni group, whose name means Soldiers of God, had struck this year in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan, by most measures the poorest and most underdeveloped part of Iran.
As Sunnis in a Shiite theocracy, Baluchis have long complained of systematic discrimination in Iran.

Iranian officials quickly blamed Pakistan for providing safe havens for Jundallah, and Britain and the United States for funding it. Against that background, the border breach appeared unlikely to have been an innocent mistake. "I can't imagine those troops crossing the border without consulting Tehran first," says Jamsheed K. Choksy, an expert on the region and professor of Central Eurasian studies at Indiana University. "The Iranians want to put pressure on Pakistan to act against groups like Jundallah," he says. "The message is, 'If you don't take care of it, we will.'"

Pakistan may have bristled at the border incursion, but it has reasons of its own to worry about terror in the region. On Sunday, another separatist group, the Baluchi United Liberation Front, claimed responsibility for killing the province's education minister. Balochistan is Pakistan's largest and poorest province, and resentment toward the capital, Islamabad, has smoldered there for decades, even threatening to explode into a full-blown separatist insurrection during the rule of former President Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

So even though both Iran and Pakistan face more immediate crises, Baluchistan could still pose big problems on both sides of the border. On Monday, the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted on Iranian state television as saying, "The bloody actions being committed in some Islamic countries, including Iraq, Pakistan and in some parts of the country (Iran), are aimed at creating division between the Shiites and Sunnis." In the face of ongoing sectarian violence in Iraq, that was an ominous reminder for an Iranian state already beset by political unrest.

In an unsigned editorial, the Islamabad daily Dawn suggested Tuesday that Pakistan's leaders can't afford to ignore its restive southern province, either. "By failing to address the genuine grievances of the Baloch people," the paper said, "the government and state may inadvertently be following a plot line scripted by those who desire chaos in Pakistan."